A very long overdue sweeping change is about to happen.
Be prepared for it.
Democracy Corps did a voter poll of 1200 Likely Voters in 50 Republican-held Competitive Districts. This was a NAMED candidate poll in REPUBLICAN swing districts, not a generic ballot national survey.
Click here for complete Results Analysis. Some snips follow. Remember you are looking at results in REPUBLICAN swing districts only.
This survey, unlike any other public survey, asks the congressional vote using the actual names of each candidate, meaning this survey fully reflects any advantages for incumbency. We also ask the generic ballot for a read of overall partisan sentiment, but named vote is more likely to tell us what happens.
Despite the increased titters about Senator Kerry, there is every reason to believe that this week has further contributed to making this election a referendum on Iraq. First, it keeps Bush on center-stage, and he is not popular in these Republican-held districts (45 percent strongly disapprove and only 24 percent strongly approve). It is hard to have a base strategy without a base. Second, the president is telling the American people to vote next Tuesday on who you trust on Iraq. And third, it has crowded out any other issue, including national security and terrorism and the economy and taxes.
The trends on Iraq promise disaster for the Republicans, as we can see in the results below:
The president’s approval on Iraq is only 39 percent in these Republican districts, unchanged from last week, with no evidence of growing confidence as they define the election on Iraq.
Most important is the new majority of 53 percent in the two polls over the last week for reducing troop levels, with only 43 percent for staying the course for stability – a break with years of being evenly divided. That 10-point margin for reduced troop is greater than the margin in the congressional vote – suggesting this debate helps Democrats in these Republican districts.
Engagement and Turnout
- This election is on Iraq, not national security.
- One-in-five Bush voters are not voting Republican and the trend of this week is moving in the opposite direction.
- 85 percent of those voting Democratic say they are “absolutely certain” to vote, compared to 83 percent of Republicans.
- 68 percent of Democratic voters score “10” very interested in the election, compared to 54 percent of Republican voters.
- 66 percent of Democratic voters say they are “more enthusiastic” than usual, compared to 49 percent of those voting Republican
The vote is trending Democratic in this last week, and importantly, Democrats have moved into a clear lead in tier one races in the last few days and now have a 3-point lead in the least competitive tier. The incumbent Republicans are only polling at 40 percent in tier one and 46 percent on average in tier three, a difficult place to be for an incumbent.
With five days to go to the election, these Republican-held seats, already in jeopardy before this week, are moving to the Democrats. Virtually all the underlying trends on significant indicators have made it more likely this is a wave election that we see only once in a decade.
With 1994 as our backdrop, we see this Republican battleground deeply upset about the direction of the country and the Republican Congress and increasingly prepared to vote for a sweeping change in Washington.
That poll is for Congressional Elections.
Rasmussen Reports is writing about the Senate Balance of Power
November 3, 2006
On the final Friday of Election 2006, Democrats take the lead for the first time in the race for control of the U.S. Senate. Today, Rasmussen Reports is switching two states (New Jersey and Montana from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat”). We now rate 49 Senate seats as Democrat or Leans Democrat, 48 seats as Republican or Leans Republican and three as Toss-Ups. We polled in each of the Toss-Up States (Tennessee, Missouri and Virginia) on Thursday night and this may lead to further shifts in the Senate Balance of Power ratings.
Given the analysis by Democracy Corps in swing republican districts the odds of the Democrats winning all leaners has to be very high, just based on overall sentiment alone. If Rasmussen is correct the odds of Republicans holding the senate comes down to Tennessee, Missouri, and Virginia.
October 27, 2006
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Tennessee race for U.S. Senate shows Mayor Bob Corker leading Democratic Congressman Harold Ford 47% to 46%. With “leaners” added, Corker leads 49% to 47%.
October 27, 2006
In the contest of inches that has marked the Missouri Senate race from the start, the most recent Rasmussen Reports election survey shows incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Talent leading Claire McCaskill 48% to 46%.
When leaners are added into the equation, Talent still leads McCaskill by two (50% to 48%). This is the first time that either candidate has reached the magic 50% level of voter support.
October 27, 2006
In Virginia’s fierce U.S. Senate campaign, Republican Senator George Allen’s once double-digit lead over Democrat James Webb has virtually vanished. Allen now leads 49% to 48%—with leaners added, 50% to 48%.
Unless this election is stolen we are going to have a new speaker of the house. Get used to hearing her name. That name is Nancy Pelosi. The Washington Post is reporting Pelosi Calls for a Fast Pullout.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s embrace Wednesday of a rapid withdrawal from Iraq highlighted the Democratic Party’s fissures on war policy, putting the House’s top Democrat at odds with her second in command while upsetting a consensus developing in the Senate.
For months now, Democratic leaders have grown increasingly aggressive in their critiques of President Bush’s policies in Iraq but have been largely content to keep their own war strategies vague or under wraps. That ended Wednesday when Pelosi (D-Calif.) aggressively endorsed a proposal by Rep. John P. Murtha (D-Pa.) to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq as soon as possible, leaving only a much smaller rapid-reaction force in the region.
All I can say is “Bring It On!”.
We have wasted a half trillion dollars in Iraq (that the government admits to), and probably half that again (if not more)buried elsewhere.
The way to do it is easy. Cut funding for the war to zero. Give Bush a choice: face impeachment or bring the troops home now. It’s high time to take back our country from those trying to wreck it. It remains to be seen if this election will be stolen or not, but the House at least is a safe bet. I am encouraged by the Democracy Corps polls that clearly shows even Republicans are sick of Bush, his policies, and the War in Iraq.
I am hoping for a clean sweep everywhere but we may have to settle for a massive sweep in the house elections alone. If you live in Tennessee, Missouri, or Virginia, please vote!
My broom is ready. It’s time for a sweeping change.
Mike Shedlock / Mish/