In the past few months we have seen repeated bottom calls by David Lereah at the NAR. We have also heard Robert Toll proclaim to be “dancing above the bottom“, and just this past week Greenspan himself said “The housing slump was all but over.

Following is a a graphical presentation to see if we can determine just how likely those statements are to be true. The pictures speak for themselves.

Hew Home Inventory

Is the Bottom In?

California Default Notices
(click on chart for a much better view)

Is the bottom in?

San Diego Defaults

Is the Bottom In?

Subprime Market Share

With credit standards tightening…..
where is the pool of new buyers going to come from?

Piggyback Loans

With credit standards tightening…..
where is the pool of new buyers going to come from?
Just a reminder, take a look at that first chart again of inventory.

Housing Starts 1965-2007
(click on chart for a much better view)

Is the bottom in?
In time or price or starts?

XHB – Hombuilders ETF
(click on chart for a much better view)

Is the top of this retrace in?

Thanks to….
Economagic, Calculated Risk, Professor Piggington, Immobilienblasen, B.C. Anonymous, Foreclosure Forum, and Inside Mortgage Finance for the images used in this post.

Mike Shedlock / Mish/