Seasonality has turned positive for gold and silver.
Let’s turn to the technicals for a second opinion.
Click on any chart in this post for a better look.
There is a strong tendency for physical gold to put in a bottom in a June/July timeframe with an acceleration up starting in August/September, sometimes after a minor correction in August. The above chart also shows that buying gold close to the 50MA is typically a winning action.
I spoke with Dave Meger, head metals trader at Alaron on Tuesday. Dave thinks “the summer lows in both gold and silver are likely in.” This is not coming from someone who is perpetually bullish on metals. He was short gold headed into June.
Seasonality does not play as consistent a factor with the $HUI as does physical gold but there is a positive correlation. Note too that strong breaks of the 50MA are much more common than with physical gold. Nonetheless the $HUI appears to be putting in a year long consolidation and is poised to move up with gold and break out of its current channel.
Goldcorp, like the $HUI is in a consolidation pattern and is poised to,stage a breakout.
Like gold, buying silver on the 50MA or with small breaks in the 50MA has proven to be a winning strategy. So has been buying the summer swoon.
CPI Adjusted Commodity Prices
ShadowStats CPI Adjusted Gold
ShadowStats CPI Adjusted Silver
ShadowStats CPI Adjusted Crude
ShadowStats CPI Adjusted Copper
ShadowStats CPI Adjusted Dow
The above charts are for perspective only. This is not an endorsement of ShadowStats per se as I tend to think ShadowStats overstates price inflation just as the government numbers understate price inflation. The difference of course is that the government errors are purposeful while I believe John Williams makes an honest attempt with ShadowStats.
Problems arise because prices are a poor way to measure inflation in the first place. Please see Inflation: What the heck is it? and Rampant Inflation for a detailed explanation why attempting to measure inflation by prices is a fool’s game. Nonetheless alternative measures of the CPI can have their uses. They take a stab at showing us just how much we are being ripped off by government distortions, even if the numbers are useless when it comes to measuring asset bubbles.
Finally, I would be remiss if I failed to point out that should a massive credit crunch arise soon, there is a strong possibility that the baby is thrown out with the bathwater, and gold seasonal tendencies right along with it. It’s going to happen sometime, whether this is the time or not, remains to be seen.
As part of gold certification in SeekingAlpha I am expected to be more specific when it comes to disclosures. The specific nature of this post as opposed to casually mentioning gold in passing as I often do, requires a more lengthy set of disclosures.
- I am an investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management and we recently launched Commodities Focus I, a portfolio with an emphasis on metals and energy.
- My commentary does not necessarily reflect the official opinion of Sitka Pacific.
- I do not profit in any way from mentioning Alaron.
- I do profit in a small way, in gold, if someone purchases gold at GoldMoney using a link from my site. I do not know if there is a balance in my account as my paperwork is not yet finalized.
- Obviously I get paid ad rates and/or commissions for every ad on my blog.
- I have no position in gold futures or options but that can change at any time.
- I do have a position in a basket of junior miners.
- I have no position in Goldcorp.
This post originally appeared in Minyanville.
Mike Shedlock / Mish/