As goes the US consumer so goes Chinese manufacturing. Here is a long but educational video produced by the Vanguard Journalism team at Current TV (not affiliated with the broker) on several Chinese manufacturing cities and what the economic downturn has meant for them. It’s well worth a play.
Yet the myth of Chinese decoupling still persists.
Some day China will be far less dependent on the US but that day is not in the immediate foreseeable future. The videos are proof enough. Moreover, a strong case can be made that Obama Risks Global Trade War With Misguided Tariffs.
For now, stock are rising along with the biggest global reflation in the history of the world, by central bankers in nearly every country in the world, including China.
However, such stimulus is not infinite and is not without cost. Nor can temporary increases in demand caused by massive give-away programs be cause for permanent celebration. At best, stimulus programs shift demand forward stretching out the recovery period.
At worst, such programs add to malinvestments in housing, commercial real estate, and other areas. Government programs seldom, if ever, allocate resources effectively. The wildly popular cash-for-clunkers program actually destroyed productive assets, a repeat on a small scale of misguided efforts by FDR in the great depression to drive up prices of goods.
Yet for all these efforts unemployment is still rising, and even Fed officials admit the outlook for employment and consumer spending is far from rosy. Please see The Problem with Janet Yellen’s Recovery Outlook for details.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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