It is increasingly likely that Brown pulls off a huge upset on Tuesday in the Massachusetts Senate special election.
Here is a list of the most Recent Massachusetts Senate Polls from Right Pundits.
Given polling trends, it is reasonable to completely discount all polls prior to 1-14-2010. Moreover it would be reasonable to overweight the most recent polls, taken in the last two days.
The average of the last two days is:
The average of the previous three days is:
Two of the polls are arguably outliers, the PJM poll on the 15th (heavily skewed to Brown and the R2000 poll skewed to Coakley on the 14th.
Tossing those results out and averaging the six polls looks like this:
No matter how you play with the results, Coakley does not exceed 45% of the vote. Kennedy, a Libertarian (no relation to Ted Kennedy) is expected to get 2-3%.
New Sunday Evening Poll
By the way, that table of results does not include still one more recent poll. Please consider New poll: Brown up 9.
A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted exclusively for POLITICO shows Republican Scott Brown holding a 9-point advantage over Martha Coakley a day before Massachusetts voters trek to the ballot box to choose a new senator.
According to the survey conducted Sunday evening by the non-partisan firm, Brown leads the Democratic attorney general 52 percent to 43 percent.
“I actually think the bottom is falling out,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, referring to Coakley’s fall in the polls over the last ten days. “I think that this candidate is in freefall. Clearly this race is imploding for her.”
“Men are not going to vote for Coakley at all. You have a very angry male voter who’s repudiating whatever is being said in Washington and they’re taking it out on this woman. And independents are clearly going to the Republican in droves. What’s left are the Democratic voters,” said Towery, who is a former aide to Newt Gingrich.
And the survey shows almost a quarter of Democratic voters lining up with Brown.
“When there’s a nine-point difference, it’s awfully hard to shave off enough to win,” Towery said. “The older voters are even tied. And the youngest voters have turned against the Democrats,” he said, pointing to Brown’s 61 to 30 percent lead among voters 18 to 29 years old. (Voters 65 and older, typically a key Democratic constituency, are divided between the two contenders, 48 percent a piece).
InsiderAdvantage’s polling pool was made up of 20 percent Republicans and 43 percent of Democrats, though estimates show that independents make up just over 50 percent of all Massachusetts voters. “It’d be even worse for (Coakley) if we weighed it towards more independents,” Towery said.
Other election eve polling is also tracking towards Brown. The Republican pollster, American Research Group, pins Brown’s lead at 7 points, 52 to 45 percent, in a three-day survey released Monday. Public Policy Polling’s final survey put Brown up 51 to 46 percent, a lead that falls within the margin of error.
Youth Against Obamacare
Here is one telling statistic of what Obama is facing, and not just in Massachusetts: Brown captured a 61 to 30 percent margin among voters 18 to 29 years old. “The youngest voters have turned against the Democrats“
Brown figures to win unless there is a massive union, Democratic turnout on Tuesday and Coakley picks up all the undecided voters. While not impossible, I would guess the odds are less than 5-1 against.
Key quote of the race by Brown: “It’s not the Ted Kennedy seat. It is the People’s seat.”
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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