The buzzword of the day is “nascent”. It means “beginning to exist or develop”. The word is everywhere you look.

Moreover, talk of “nascency” seems like it has been going on forever. Perhaps because it has. Here are some prime examples.

March 3, 2010 – Big Picture: Read it here first: St. Louis Fed Tracks Nascent Expansion

The St. Louis Fed has made it official, at least through their lens. The recession ended in June 2009. As you read here first in January, late last year the St. Louis Fed discontinued the use of recession shading (thereby signalling its end) in its graphs as of mid-2009.

They have now retooled their Tracking the Recession page to Tracking the Economy, and the default graphs are indexed to 100 in July 2009 (the economy’s apparent trough).

Feb 26 2010 – FXStreet: Canada: export sector is betting on nascent recovery

Today, we were very pleased by the results of a survey published by Statistics Canada. As Today’s Hot Chart shows, factories plan to increase their investment in machinery & equipment by 8.8% in 2010. Furthermore, the improvement is fairly widespread, 14 major industries out of 20 having reported an increase. The increase planned in 2010 in these productivity enhancing investments is of the same order of magnitude than the one that followed the recession that took place at the beginning of the decade. This occurs despite the fact that this heavily export-dependant sector is now facing the challenge of a strong CAD. Nevertheless, Canadian manufacturers chose to position themselves in order to take advantage of the nascent U.S. recovery.

February 24, 2010 – Bloomberg: Bernanke Says ‘Nascent’ Recovery Requires Low Rates

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. economy is in a “nascent” recovery that still requires low interest rates to encourage demand by consumers and businesses once federal stimulus expires.

February 2, 2010 – Todays’s Zaman İstanbul: Manufacturing sees nascent recovery in Q3 productivity.

Turkey’s manufacturing industry productivity increased by 0.9 percent in the third quarter of 2009 as compared to the same months of 2008, data from the National Productivity Center (MPM) have revealed. ….

February 2, 2010 – Aclara: Despite A Nascent Recovery, Prospects For U.S. Finance Companies In 2010 Are Mixed

Note: That is an ad wanting $500 for a report about the “nascent recovery”

November 19, 2009 – Wall Street Journal: Dell Trails Tech Peers in Nascent Recovery

Dell Inc.’s quarterly profit dropped 54% despite recent signs of recovery in the technology sector, raising questions about the personal-computer maker’s strategy of focusing on profitability at the expense of market share.

September 2, 2009 – Seeking Alpha: Robert Shiller on the Nascent Recovery

August 20, 2009 – CNN
: IMF: ‘Nascent recovery’ under way

The International Monetary Fund’s chief economist described a “nascent” global recovery on Wednesday, but warned that US policymakers walked a tightrope in timing the end of the fiscal stimulus.

June 23,2009 – LiveMint: Truant rains could nix nascent recovery

The threat to the Indian monsoon, which has barely progressed in the last two weeks, increased on Monday when a top meteorological organization raised the risk levels of the occurrence of a weather phenomenon, El Nino.

A setback to the monsoon could nix the nascent economic recovery that is currently under way.

June 4, 2009 – CBS MoneyWatch: Higher Mortgage Rates Could Snuff a Nascent Housing Recovery.

March 28, 2009 – Business Line: Are steel and cement leading a nascent recovery?

If the performance of the steel and cement industries is any indication, a nascent recovery in economic activity seems under way.

December 7, 2008 – Seeking Alpha: Weekly Rewind: Signs of a Nascent Recovery?

February 2, 2008 – CBS News: U.S. Stocks Hope To Cement Nascent Recovery

(MarketWatch) NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Investors will attempt to cement a nascent recovery in stocks next week, seeking help from earnings growth outside the battered financial sector and trying to gauge whether much lower interest rates will be enough to prevent the U.S. economy from sliding into recession.

February 2, 2008 – MarketWatch: U.S. stocks hope to keep bullish momentum going

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Investors will attempt to cement a nascent recovery in stocks next week, seeking help from earnings growth outside the battered financial sector and trying to gauge whether much lower interest rates will be enough to prevent the U.S. economy from sliding into recession.

The original title of that post was U.S. Stocks Hope To Cement Nascent Recovery. Apparently someone had second thoughts or back revised it away. Here is the actual link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-hope-to-cement-nascent-recovery-2008220100

Whoever revised the title at MarketWatch, forget to tell CBS News.

Nascent Recovery Talk

That was just a small sample. I did a google search for nascent recovery and turned up 74 pages of entries.

How long can something be nascent? This happy talk has been going on for two full years at least.

Of course I made my own contribution on nacency.

Thursday, February 25, 2010: “Nascent” Recovery or “Nascent” Economic Collapse?

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is one of the best contrarian indicators one could possibly find. Yesterday, Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee that the U.S. economy is in a “nascent” recovery.

Given his historical track record of complete failure on matters like housing, the recession, and jobs, his yapping about the “nascent” recovery suggests the very best we can expect is for the recovery to stall, and more likely enter a double dip recession if not completely collapse.

I don’t know about you, but I’m Sure Glad The Recession Ended. In theory, that should mean use of the word “nascent” will soon behind us. In practice, don’t count on it.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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