Inquiring minds are investigating the ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators.

Here is a detail look of a chart I created from their public data.

Weekly Leading Indicators 2007-2010

The index has gone negative. Typically when the index goes to -5 or lower for a couple weeks the economists at the ECRI start howling for more Keynesian stimulus. If next week is negative again expect to hear such talk.

The interesting thing is the ECRI claims to have predicted every recession, but the reality is they are typically late. The last recession (assuming we are not still in it) started in November of 2007. It appears the ECRI was on time, but the only reason it appears that way is the NBER was even slower in declaring the recession.

The ECRI was actually months late in “predicting” the last recession.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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