Following the announcement of “Operation Twist”, US dollar strengthened, equities sold off, and the US dollar rallied. Suffice to say, those are not reactions the Fed wanted.

Moreover, commodity currencies are in the tank and have been since topping mid-summer. Here are a few currency charts.

US Dollar Index


Australian Dollar

Canadian Dollar

Those who think the Australian dollar or the Canadian dollar are some sort of safe haven will find out otherwise.

  • China is in a credit bubble and when it pops it will take commodities and commodity producing currencies down with it.
  • Australia’s property bubble has already popped, and a commercial real estate implosion will follow with a lag, just as happened in the US. Canada will join the implosion party as well.
  • The Canadian and Australian central banks will respond with liquidity measures or interest rate cuts, sending the currencies lower.

There is no reason to like the Euro, the Yen, the Australian dollar, or the Canadian dollar.

For that matter there is no reason to like the US dollar except things are about to get worse than expected everywhere else. That coupled with a messy default setup in Europe and a Fed that did “less than expected” on Wednesday are sufficient reasons to expect a rising US dollar.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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