The Institute for Supply Management released the September 2011 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

The PMI registered 51.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from August, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 26th consecutive month, at a slightly higher rate. The Production Index registered 51.2 percent, indicating a return to growth after contracting in August for the first time since May of 2009.

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
SEPTEMBER 2011

Index

Series
Index
Sep
Series
Index
Aug
Percentage
Point
Change

Direction

Rate
of
Change
Trend*
(Months)
PMI 51.6 50.6 +1.0 Growing Faster 26
New Orders 49.6 49.6 0.0 Contracting Same 3
Production 51.2 48.6 +2.6 Growing From Contacting 1
Employment 53.8 51.8 +2.0 Growing Faster 24
Supplier Deliveries 51.4 50.6 +0.8 Slowing Faster 28
Inventories 52.0 52.3 -0.3 Growing Slower 2
Customers’ Inventories 49.0 46.5 +2.5 Too Low Slower 30
Prices 56.0 55.5 +0.5 Increasing Faster 27
Backlog of Orders 41.5 46.0 -4.5 Contracting Faster 4
Exports 53.5 50.5 +3.0 Growing Faster 27
Imports 54.5 55.5 -1.0 Growing Slower 25
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 28
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 26

A Bloomberg writer managed to managed to spin those ISM numbers into the headline U.S. Stocks Fall as Concern Over Greek Debt Crisis Offsets Economic Data stating “Earlier today, stocks rose as a report showed that manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly accelerated in September as production picked up, easing concern the world’s largest economy is stalling.

That is complete silliness. Exactly whose concern is eased?

A new concern ought to be the expansion in hiring and production while orders and especially backlog of orders is contracting.

Manufacturers are producing at an unsustainable rate. The global economy is rapidly cooling led by Europe, Asia, and Australia. That is a lot of downside leadership. The US is not immune and indeed is likely in recession already as noted in ECRI Calls Recession Based on “Contagion in Forward Indicators”; Just How Timely is the Call?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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