In a video, Ed Leamer, Chief PCI® economist hypothesizes “delay in trucking activity“.

Chief PCI® economist, Ed Leamer, explains the disappointing month-over-month and year-over-year numbers for the January PCI in the face of other indicators that suggest that the economy is turning around. In this month’s report, Ed explores several hypotheses for the disconnect and concludes that trucking activity is delayed, expecting to see a surge in the coming months.

Ceridian Index vs. Industrial Production

Ceridian Index vs. GDP

Ceridian Index vs. Retail Sales, Inventory, Industrial Production

Year-Over-Year Diesel Sales 

For more charts and commentary please see Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index®

Global Trade Slowdown

I do not buy the economy is turning around and the falloff in diesel demand represents “trucking delayed” any more than I believe the overall plunge in petroleum is “driving delayed”.

Instead I propose something far more serious has started – a global trade slowdown. For details, please see Petroleum 3-Month Rolling Average Turns Sharply Lower; Negative Shipping Rates; Collapse in Global Trade

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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