With jobs data coming out tomorrow, let’s take a look at the current situation in New York, the country’s third most populous state.

Here is a chart courtesy of Tim Wallace.

New York State Employment Situation

click on chart for sharper image

The chart shows second quarter data from 2012 vs. prior years. In table form, New York employment looks like this.

Year Covered Work Force Unemployed
2000 8,155,000 8,999,000 390,100
2001 8,515,000 8,929,000 364,200
2002 8,312,000 8,976,000 523,600
2003 8,251,000 9,344,000 550,600
2004 8,217,000 9,273,000 539,700
2005 8,304,000 9,380,000 443,400
2006 8,358,000 9,519,000 430,400
2007 8,460,000 9,424,000 395,900
2008 8,601,000 9,579,000 469,400
2009 8,557,000 9,757,000 782,500
2010 8,306,000 9,675,000 785,000
2011 8,369,000 9,547,000 745,300
2012 8,477,000 9,562,000 824,000

Wallace Writes …

Hi Mish

Recently we have heard how great the city of New York is doing employment wise.

Suffice it to say if the city of New York is doing so wonderfully, the rest of the state must be hurting for certain.

The data you are going to see on these charts is the foundation for the quarterly covered report. As you are aware covered employees are those with unemployment benefits. A high percentage of  workers without benefits are self-employed.

In this chart you will clearly see the impact of both the 2001/2 recession and the more recent recession. The black line is the total unemployed, not just those covered by insurance.

For the past four years, New York State unemployment has remained well above the numbers leading into the recession, and in fact 45.8% on average higher than the 2001/2 recession impact.

Thus, I cannot see where the “recovery” is. In fact, 2012 is the worst year in history for New York.

The red line shows the New York Civilian Work Force, which as you can see has mostly historically trended up, until the Obama presidency.

Since then the trend is downhill, with the workforce now back to levels of 2008, while unemployment is twice the level of 2008. Is this truly a “recovery” and “change” that you can live with?

The blue line shows the number of people actually covered by the state level unemployment insurance. As those benefits ran out, covered employment crashed to a level actually below 2001.

2012 covered employee numbers are below the level in 2001, in spite of a huge increase in population. Clearly there has been no recovery in benefits producing jobs.

Tim

Self-Employment Notes

Self-employed are not covered by unemployment insurance.

The “self-employed” group includes all of those selling trinkets on Ebay as a job as well as all of those “working” in their multi-level marketing “business”. Others struggle as non-covered employees in family related businesses.

Many of those jobs are not “real” and produce little or no income. However, these people are counted in the workforce if they respond to the BLS in the household survey that they “worked” any hours.

Quick Stats 2001 vs. 2012

In 2001 there were 8,515,000 New Yorkers covered by unemployment benefits. Now there are 8,477,000.

In the same time frame, the work force has grown from 8,929,000 to 9,562,000 while unemployment rose from 364,200 to 824,000.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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