US Manufacturing as measured by the June 2013 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is treading water barely above contraction.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June following one month of contraction, and the overall economy grew for the 49th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The PMI™ registered 50.9 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from May’s reading of 49 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the fifth time in the first six months of 2013. The New Orders Index increased in June by 3.1 percentage points to 51.9 percent, and the Production Index increased by 4.8 percentage points to 53.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 48.7 percent, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared to May’s reading of 50.1 percent.

Manufacturing employment contracted for the first time since September 2009, when the index registered 47.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.5 percent, increasing 3 percentage points from May, indicating that overall raw materials prices increased from last month. Comments from the panel generally indicate slow growth and improving business conditions.”

ISM at a Glance

Series Data Apr Index Mar Index Percentage Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend (Months)
PMI™ 50.9 49.0 +1.9 Growing From Contracting 1
New Orders 51.9 48.8 +3.1 Growing From Contracting 1
Production 53.4 48.6 +4.8 Growing From Contracting 1
Employment 48.7 50.1 -1.4 Contracting From Growing 1
Supplier Deliveries 50.0 48.7 +1.3 Unchanged From Faster 1
Inventories 50.5 49.0 +1.5 Growing From Contracting 1
Customers’ Inventories 45.0 46.0 -1.0 Too Low Faster 19
Prices 52.5 49.5 +3.0 Increasing From Decreasing 1
Backlog of Orders 46.5 48.0 -1.5 Contracting Faster 2
Exports 54.5 51.0 +3.5 Growing Faster 7
Imports 56.0 54.5 +1.5 Growing Faster 5


In my June 3 Manufacturing PMI Synopsis I stated “The consensus estimate was for slower growth, but here we are. Manufacturing is in contraction and the economy continues to weaken. Given the plunge in new orders and backlog of orders, jobs and the overall economy will likely weaken as well. Expect that trend of 48 months of economic growth to break next month.

The trend of overall economic growth did not break as the economy purportedly grew for the 49th month (confusing as the PMI was in contraction last month but the ISM’s estimate of growth was not).

However, the 44 month history of manufacturing employment growth is now history. Expect the rest of the economy to soon follow.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock