The German election is on September 22. And with 12 days remaining, things do not look good for a Grand Coalition headed by Merkel.

Via translation, the latest INSA poll looks like this:

  • CDU/CSU – 39%
  • SPD – 28%
  • Grüne (Greens) – 11%
  • Die Linke (Left) – 8%
  • FDP – 4%
  • AfD – 3%
  • Pirate – 3%

I believe AfD will make the 5% cut. I do not know if FDP will make the cut. If neither makes the cut, an unstable “Grand Coalition” is theoretically possible three ways.

Possible Coalitions if Neither AfD Nor FDP Get 5%

  1. SPD + Grüne + Die Linke
  2. CDU/CSU + SPD (“Grand Coalition” with Merkel)
  3. CDU/CSU + SPD (“Grand Coalition” without Merkel)

Possible Coalitions if AfD, not FDP Gets 5%

  1. CDU/CSU + AfD (with Merkel)
  2. CDU/CSU + AfD (without Merkel)

A grand coalition including SPD is theoretically possible.

Possible Coalitions if FDP not AfD Gets 5%

  1. CDU/CSU + FDP (with Merkel)

Again, a grand coalition with SPD is also theoretically possible.

There are numerous combinations if FDP and AfD both get 5%.

One More Merkel Snag

The CDU/CSU-FDP, CDU/CSU-AfD, and CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP possibilities all assume a working majority.

A coalition of CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP would easily have a majority.

A coalition of CDU/CSU + FDP might not have a majority if SDP continues to gain at the expense of CDU/CSU.

Election Not Over

With many sitting the election out and with many undecided voters likely to vote for someone other than CDU/CSU or SPD, this election is hardly over.

Indeed, the mess gets rather complicated if SPD tops 28% and the Greens and Left come close to 10% each. And that outcome is not out of the question.

Merkel should hope that any CDU/CSU slippage goes to FDP and AfD, not anywhere else.

Is CDU/CSU + AfD that bad an option? I think not, but I do not get to vote.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock