Shortly after posting “Too Close to Call”, reader Bernd pinged me with an update.

“Polling agency ZDF predicts CDU/CSU has an absolute majority of 304 seats in Parliament.”

Bernd also added …

Hello Mish

We are unlikely to know until very late tonight or tomorrow, if AfD made it. I will keep you posted. This has to do with a lot of technical/statistical problems and with the number of “voters by mail”. This was the highest number of “mail voters” ever. Mail voters are people who voted beforehand by mail as per request.

The clear winner, undoubtedly, is Angela Merkel. 42+% is impressive.


Those who assumed a Grand Coalition was inevitable were simply wrong. It could still happen, but I doubt it. Why enter a coalition if you do not need to?


If AfD does squeak in, the absolute majority for CDU-CSU goes away.

In that case, Merkel would have to choose between a coalition with AfD that would be relatively stable, or a coalition with SPD that would not be stable because of demands on minimum wages, banking unions, tax hikes, etc. 

Mike “Mish” Shedlock