In a 204 page IMF Report on World Economic Economic Outlook the IMF predicts 3.0 percent US growth in 2014, 1.1 percent for the eurozone, and  5.7 percent growth in emerging markets.

I did not slog through the report, rather I stopped reading on page 13 with the predictions. The IMF is perennially wrong and perennially overoptimistic.

Surprise Index

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo Bank: “The IMF new economic forecast says the US is going to be the growth engine for 2014. It makes perfect sense, not!!! Citigroup’s Surprise index (economic data relative to expected data is at new lows while policy makers see improvement. I guess ultimately it will turn due to mean reversion, but if this is superior growth, I need to go back to school.”

Steen’s Personal Notes

Everyone, and I mean, everyone I have met in the last three month is overweight US stocks based on more growth, best of worst, but asset return from the US market reflects the above chart and my personal view that rates going lower due to much lower growth in the US than perceived.

Year to date performance is not really what the doctor ordered in December is it?

Gold (GLD) vs. S&P; 500 (SPX)  vs. 7-10 Year Treasuries (IEF)

Wine Country Conference II

Want to hear a live discussion of what Steen Jakobsen thinks about Europe, China, or US interest rates?

Then come to the second annual Wine Country Conference which will be held May 1st & 2nd, 2014.

We have an exciting lineup of speakers for this year’s conference.

  • John Hussman: Founder of Hussman Funds, Director of the John P. Hussman Foundation which is dedicated to providing life-changing assistance through medical research
  • Steen Jakobsen: Chief Economist of Saxo Bank
  • Stephanie Pomboy: Founder of MacroMavens macroeconomic research
  • David Stockman: Ronald Reagan’s budget director, best-selling author, former Managing Director of The Blackstone Group 
  • Mebane Faber: Co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management
  • Jim Bruce: Producer, Director, and Writer of Money For Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve 
  • Chris Martenson: Reknown speaker and founder of Peak Prosperity
  • Mike “Mish” Shedlock: Investment advisor for Sitka Pacific and Founder of Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Conference Details

For further details about the 2014 conference, please see Wine Country Conference May 1st & 2nd, 2014

Unlike other “for profit” conferences, every cent of money raised in this event goes to charity. This year’s cause is autism.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock