The US treasury market is not in sync with the widely held belief the economy is growing stronger. A single chart clearly shows what I mean.

Yield Curve as of 2014-05-26

click on chart for sharper image

The above chart shows end-of-month closing values except for the current month which is up-to-date.


  • $TYX: 30-Year in green
  • $TNX: 10-Year in orange
  • $FVX: 05-Year in blue
  • $IRX: 03-Month in brown

If the US economy was really strengthening, the long end of the yield curve ought to be rising strongly.

So why isn’t it? 

My take is the economy is poised to decelerate, not take off as most seem to think.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock