The optimism of mainstream economists is rather curious.
Economics appears to be right up there with faith-healing as the most optimistic profession on the planet.
Here is a case in point: Bloomberg reports Italy Unexpectedly Returns to Recession.
Italy unexpectedly returned to recession and German factory orders dropped the most since 2011 as slowing global growth and rising tensions with Russia over Ukraine threaten the euro area’s recovery.
Italy’s economy shrank 0.2 percent in the second quarter after contracting 0.1 percent in the previous three months. German orders slid 3.2 percent in June from May. Both reports were worse than forecast by economists in separate Bloomberg News surveys.
The renewed recession in Italy, the euro area’s third-biggest economy, will weigh on the region’s second-quarter gross domestic product figures. The currency bloc’s economy expanded 0.2 percent in the three months through March, and the ECB predicts growth of 1 percent this year.
Today Italy, then France, then Germany. All will be “unexpected”. Bad news is seldom if ever expected.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock