The spin in media reporting, in both directions (but typically bullish), is pervasive.
Here is a case in point. Markit reports Japan PMI Points to Strongest Manufacturing Expansion Since March.
Does “strongest since March” mean “strong”?
Here are the Key Points:
- Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ at 52.4 (50.5 in July). Modest improvement in growth registered in August.
- Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index at 53.2 (49.8 in July). Output increased at solid pace.
A few charts will put this into perspective.
click on chart for sharper image
It seems to me that Japan has been treading water above and below the 50-50 expansion-contraction line for years (mostly below since 2007).
Will this surge prove to be more lasting than any of the others?
If so, please don’t credit Abenomics. Instead, I propose the recovery is due to trend exhaustion, in spite of Abenomics.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock