In spite of a manufacturing ISM in positive territory for 15 consecutive months, a Gallup Survey shows Economic Confidence at -16, Economic Outlook at -18.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans view current economic conditions and their perception of whether the economy is getting better or worse. In August, 20% said the economy is “excellent” or “good,” while 34% said it is poor. This resulted in a current conditions index score of -14, the same current conditions score found for five consecutive months.

Economic outlook has varied a bit more over the past six months, ranging from -14 to -19, although still a much narrower range than in previous years. In August, 38% of Americans said the economy is getting better, while 56% said the economy is getting worse. This resulted in an economic outlook score of -18, similar to the -19 in July.

Gallup Economic Confidence and Current Conditions

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The Current Conditions Index is derived by taking Excellent plus Good ratings and subtracting Poor.

The Economic Outlook Index is derived by taking those who say the economy is getting better and subtracting those who say it is getting worse.

Both indices have been stable between -13 and -19 for the entire year. The big dip last October is related to Congressional budget bickering.

The economy is getting better for some, but more say it’s getting worse. In aggregate, people do not buy this recovery talk. Should they?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock