Even with battles over energy, disputed islands, and recent militarism by Japan, one might not have expected this polling result: Majority in China Expect War with Japan.

China and Japan are heading towards military conflict, according to a majority of Chinese surveyed on ties between the Asian powers in a Sino-Japanese poll.

The Genron/China Daily survey found that 53 per cent of Chinese respondents – and 29 per cent of the Japanese polled – expect their nations to go to war. The poll was released ahead of the second anniversary of Japan’s move to nationalise some of the contested Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

Relations between Japan and China have soured since Japan bought three of the tiny islands – which China claims and calls the Diaoyu – in 2012. Japan defended the move as an effort to thwart a plan by the anti-China governor of Tokyo to buy them, but China accused it of breaching an unwritten deal to keep the status quo.

According to the poll, 38 per cent of Japanese think war will be avoided, but that marked a nine point drop from 2013. It also found that a record 93 per cent of Japanese have an unfavourable view of their Chinese neighbours, while the number of Chinese who view Japanese unfavourably fell 6 points to 87 per cent.

Energy Production

Given global restraints on the production and use of energy, my view is that it is impossible for China to keep growing 7% a year as most expect.

I believe China will be lucky to grow 3% on average for the next decade.

Questions of the Day

  • If China attempts to maintain 7% growth for another decade, where will the energy resources come from?
  • If China doesn’t maintain high growth, what about mounting Chinese unrest due to lack of jobs?
  • What happens when Abenomics fails?
  • What about US, EU, and Japanese pushes for higher inflation even though wages don’t keep up?
  • What about Ukraine and the US-EU feud with Russia?
  • What about ISIS?
  • What abut Syria?

My point? The global economy is a tinderbox, waiting for a catalyst to explode.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock