With a ramp up in fearmongering led by financial institutions and every UK political party, the preliminary votes indicate Scottish Anti-Independence Campaign Poised for Victory in Vote.

With 26 of Scotland’s 32 local authorities declared, the Better Together camp backed by Prime Minister David Cameron and the main U.K. parties had garnered 54 percent of the vote, while the “yes” campaign led by Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond had 46 percent.

“It does look like we have secured a ‘no’ vote,” Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, a Liberal Democrat and the most senior Scot in the U.K. government, told Sky News as the first results trickled in. “But a ‘no’ vote is also for change, it’s our responsibility to get on with that.”

Looking Ahead

Via email, Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank writes …

We have Quebec like situation in Scotland now – The independence talk is gone for now but the next item on the agenda politically is UK referendum next year where the independence and anti-EU vote will continue to play a role. 2017 is the big year, if the promised EU votes takes place……

EU did not do themselves any favors by ruling Scotland out of EU even before the election results was known. Scots, like danes, don’t take outside pressure easy especially from something like the EU.

The main take away from macro perspective is the move towards very nationalistic and domestic driven political agendas. The EU and global agendas now plays 3rd violin as lack of growth and reforms become real issue.

The real economy is at least politically catching up to the artificial markets, so while the markets celebrate RISK ON again this morning, the politicians around Europe is taking notes: Change or lose your job! Just ask the Labor party in the UK who almost lost their ability to get back into government as 30 MP’s would have been lost overnight with a Yes.

Steen Jakobsen

Lesson Learned

For the political class, this vote was far too close for comfort. Next time, there won’t be a vote.

In the case of Spain, a Catalan vote for independence scheduled later this year will simply be declared illegal. Should the vote for independence fail, the vote would of course be accepted.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock