A chart in the latest Black Knight Mortgage Monitor Release caught my eye.
For five months, the number of properties and the percentage of properties 30-days delinquent has been on the rise (arrows added).
click on chart for sharper image
- The mortgage delinquency rate jumped nearly 5% in August, reaching its highest point since February.
- The year-over-year change in 30-day delinquencies is a negative 4.8%. Another month like August would nearly reverse the year-over-year downtrend in delinquencies.
- The inventory of 30-day delinquent homes rose by 146,000. Another month like August would reverse the year-over-year change.
- 90-day delinquencies do not show the same ominous trend as 3-day delinquencies, but 90-day delinquencies first require 30-day delinquency then 60-day delinquency.
So far, the 90-day stats have not rolled over, but with the 30-day uptrend this long, it likely will.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock