Results from the January 2015 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) indicate median consumer inflation expectations were largely unchanged at both the one-year and three-year ahead horizons at 2.9 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

Median household spending growth expectations retreated significantly from the last month.

The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (if one were to lose one’s current job) continued to increase.

Inflation Expectation Projection

Earnings Growth Expectations

Income Growth Expectation

I could not locate the chart of spending expectations and that was the chart I was most interested in. The Fed does allow a data download so here is the chart I created in Excel.


I do not place a lot of faith in such projections actually, especially inflation expectations that I find totally useless.

In regards to spending, if consumers really do slow spending, it will be yet another knock on the 1st quarter 2015 GDP report.

GDP Trends

For more on 1st quarter GDP, please see …

Mike “Mish” Shedlock