Durable goods orders are somewhat of a mixed bag today, but beneath the headline rise, weakness is easy to find.
The Bloomberg Consensus was for a 0.5% rise, and the actual result was a whopping 4% gain due to transportation.
Yet, transportation for last month was revised lower, and excluding transportation durable goods orders shrank.
More importantly, core capital goods orders declined for at least four consecutive months.
Let’s dive into the Census Report on Durable Goods for more details. Here is a table of key items I made from the report.
|Item||Mar||Feb||Jan||Feb-Mar %Chg||Jan-Feb % Chg||Dec-Jan % Chg|
|Total New Orders||240,175||230,911||234,272||4.0||-1.4||1.9|
|Capital Goods Orders||89,673||85,588||86,723||4.8||-1.3||7.1|
|Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders||80,213||77,504||79,214||3.5||-2.2||-0.3|
|Defense Capital Goods Orders||9,460||8,084||7,509||17||7.7||-6.3|
|Core Capital Goods Orders||68,189||68,537||70,062||-0.5||-2.2||-0.3|
|Core Capital Goods Shipments||69,611||69,889||69,789||-0.4||0.1||-0.6|
Line items (except the last line which shows shipments) are new orders, in millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Core capital goods exclude defense and aircraft.
Once again this was another weak economic report excluding aircraft orders that have long lead times and are frequently cancelled.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock