I was on record stating a belief the Fed would effectively hike by 1/8 point. I had that belief because that is what the Fed Fund Futures implied.

Regardless, I was wrong. If someone is going to prove you wrong it may as well be yourself.

Here is a table of Effective Fed Funds Rates straight from the New York Fed. I created the table from their downloadable data.

Effective Fed Funds Rate

Date Effective Rate Low High Std. Dev. Target Rate
2015-12-17 0.37 0.25 0.59 0.05 0.25-0.50
2015-12-16 0.15 0.08 0.55 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-12-15 0.15 0.09 0.31 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-12-14 0.15 0.07 0.31 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-12-11 0.14 0.07 0.38 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-12-10 0.14 0.07 0.38 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-12-09 0.14 0.06 0.38 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-12-08 0.13 0.06 0.35 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-12-07 0.13 0.06 0.35 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-12-04 0.13 0.06 0.35 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-12-03 0.13 0.06 0.35 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-12-02 0.13 0.04 0.35 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-12-01 0.13 0.07 0.35 0.05 0.00-0.25
2015-11-30 0.08 0.04 0.31 0.06 0.00-0.25
2015-11-27 0.12 0.02 0.35 0.05 0.00-0.25
2015-11-25 0.12 0.06 0.35 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-11-24 0.12 0.05 0.35 0.05 0.00-0.25
2015-11-23 0.12 0.07 0.35 0.05 0.00-0.25
2015-11-20 0.12 0.07 0.35 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-11-19 0.12 0.05 0.35 0.05 0.00-0.25
2015-11-18 0.12 0.05 0.35 0.05 0.00-0.25
2015-11-17 0.13 0.07 0.35 0.05 0.00-0.25
2015-11-16 0.13 0.06 0.35 0.05 0.00-0.25
2015-11-13 0.12 0.06 0.35 0.04 0.00-0.25
2015-11-12 0.12 0.05 0.35 0.04 0.00-0.25

Previous effective rates hovered around 12.5 basis points. That is 1/8 of a point. A quarter-point (25 basis points) hike would have been to 37.5. An eighth-of-a-point hike would have been to 25 basis points. Today we are at 37.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock