Yesterday the CME FedWatch Model suggested there was a 17% chance the Fed would hike in March. Today, the FedWatch model fell to 2%.  Neither the Bloomberg model nor CME Fedwatch show odds of a rate cut.

Rate Hike Odds March

fedwatch 2016-02-08

Rate Hike Odds December

fedwatch 2016-02-08A

One and Done

Odds of no hike at all in 2016 surged from 55.7% to 71.4%. Those expecting at most one hike seem to have the upper hand. I have been in that camp from the beginning.

Yellen Yap

The parade of Fed presidents who had been sticking to the line “4 hikes are coming” have suddenly gone silent.

Janet Yellen meets with Congress this week. Her lies and ignorance rate to be amusing.

Silly Comment of the Day Award

Finally, the silly comment of the day award goes to economist Dave Rosenberg who says “Odds of US Recession in Next Year as Close to Zero as Anything Could be Close to Zero”

Mike “Mish” Shedlock