I had the pleasure of appearing on Fox News last Sunday with Mike Fannery. The discussion involved the sugar lobby, politics regarding presidential candidate Marco Rubio, my recent recession call, jobs, and Chicago manufacturing. That’s quite a bit in one five minute segment. Here is the video clip.
Link if video does not play: Fox Chicago Sunday – Mish – Sugar and Manufacturing.
The recession call was in reference to my February 4 article Recession has Arrived; Factory Orders Decline 2.9%, Inventories Rise.
For more on the odds of recession, please see ….
- February 4: Currency Wars and a Job Gain Recession?
- February 8: Rosenberg “Odds of US Recession in Next Year as Close to Zero as Anything Could be Close to Zero”
The Jobs reference is in regards to my February 5 article Core Employment (Age 25-54) Still Below January 2000 Level, 3 Million Below 2007.
With the mainstream media going gaga over the headline unemployment rate of 4.9%, let’s put a spotlight on actual employment with a focus on those aged 25-54.
Age group 25-54 ought to be out of school, not retired, not on disability, and working somewhere. Here are some charts that show what has actually happened.
Core Employment 1950 to Present
Core Employment Detail
Core Employment vs. Population
- Core employment first surpassed the level we are at today in January of 2000, 16 years ago.
- Core employment hit a peak in January 2007 at 100.716 million.
- Today, core employment is 3,133,000 below January 2007.
- Today, core employment is 796,000 below the level 16 years ago.
- Today, core population is 5,284,000 above the level 16 years ago
The Fox slide shows the numbers better than they are.
These awful numbers do not account for part-time workers. If you work as little a 1 hour a week selling trinkets on eBay, you are considered “employed”.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
All right, Mike. You may have a contract out on you as a result of the lively interview. Let’s hope the contract will be good, sweet, and helpful for you.A good and interesting interview. Keep up your fine work. Ted P. S. No response needed.
Thank you for shining some light on the Fanjul crime family. They are also responsible for the environmental mess from draining the Everglades etc. In addition they have some kind of exemption allowing them to import Dominican sugar on their terms. It gets better, as they control Dominican Republic sugar as well. These are real neo feudalists crushing entire industries and all their employees under the hobnail boot of crony capitalism. They are one of the reasons America has a health crisis from people consuming large amounts of artificial sweeteners, scientifically altered sugars the body does not recognize sending the calories directly to make fat, and the big bomb of high fructose corn syrup which goes 40% to fat as opposed to only 2% for natural sugar. Thank you again. These guys are simply as bad as our system produces, completely lacking in conscience, yet virtually no one can tell you who they are and what they have done.
in a macro view, it all started around 1971. the dow passed 1000, employment really started to accelerate. That’s when the US gov forfeited on the gold window and started to print huge debts to keep it all going. To this day the USA MUST keep that debt increasing or its all going to crash and burn right to the ground. What a farce.
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Didn’t the full txt of the TPP get released already? Pretty sure the Obama admin did it in response to Wikileaks getting alot of it (particularly the chapter on intellectual property).
https://medium.com/the-trans-pacific-partnership
Also I might be an economic noob, but it seems to me the collapse in oil price is because of the recession (in china), not a cause of recession?
The only thing these charts tells me is that the 2008-2009 contraction was not just a normal business recession but rather a credit crunch and it takes a lot longer to over come that sort of slowdown. I would love to see employment charts like this from 1920 to 1940.
I would also like to see what has happened to the participation rate in this same core age category.
HEY MISH DON’T KNOW IF YOU RECALL JIMMY CARTER AND THE SUGAR CARTEL. THOSE CUBANS NEED TO GO BACK TO CUBA.
everything domestic is skyhigh ,u have to feed the welfare machine,ss,disability,medicaid,obamacare,ebt, war, yada yada yada,those costs constanly rise in perpetuity and since they’re completely unproductive they have to be constantly fed moar and moar cash in ever increasing amounts