I had the pleasure of appearing on Fox News last Sunday with Mike Fannery. The discussion involved the sugar lobby, politics regarding presidential candidate Marco Rubio, my recent recession call, jobs, and Chicago manufacturing. That’s quite a bit in one five minute segment. Here is the video clip.
Link if video does not play: Fox Chicago Sunday – Mish – Sugar and Manufacturing.
The recession call was in reference to my February 4 article Recession has Arrived; Factory Orders Decline 2.9%, Inventories Rise.
For more on the odds of recession, please see ….
- February 4: Currency Wars and a Job Gain Recession?
- February 8: Rosenberg “Odds of US Recession in Next Year as Close to Zero as Anything Could be Close to Zero”
The Jobs reference is in regards to my February 5 article Core Employment (Age 25-54) Still Below January 2000 Level, 3 Million Below 2007.
With the mainstream media going gaga over the headline unemployment rate of 4.9%, let’s put a spotlight on actual employment with a focus on those aged 25-54.
Age group 25-54 ought to be out of school, not retired, not on disability, and working somewhere. Here are some charts that show what has actually happened.
Core Employment 1950 to Present
Core Employment Detail
Core Employment vs. Population
- Core employment first surpassed the level we are at today in January of 2000, 16 years ago.
- Core employment hit a peak in January 2007 at 100.716 million.
- Today, core employment is 3,133,000 below January 2007.
- Today, core employment is 796,000 below the level 16 years ago.
- Today, core population is 5,284,000 above the level 16 years ago
The Fox slide shows the numbers better than they are.
These awful numbers do not account for part-time workers. If you work as little a 1 hour a week selling trinkets on eBay, you are considered “employed”.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock