A reader of this blog recently commented that I am engaged in technology that will never happen.
I propose technology will advance far further, far faster than even I envision. While not every technology will pan out, many will. And new, unforeseen technologies, will come along as well.
Here is another technology to consider: Humanoid Robots to Manufacture Planes.
Humanoid robots that can carry out difficult tasks during plane manufacturing are being developed by Airbus and the Joint Robotics laboratory.
Using humanoids on aircraft assembly lines will make it possible to relieve human operators of the most laborious and dangerous tasks, thus allowing them to concentrate on more valuable tasks that cannot be carried out by machines.
The four year project will attempt to research and develop solutions for a number of issues around using humanoid robots in manufacturing.
One of the most prominent difficulties for these robots will be to work in a confined environment and move without colliding with the numerous surrounding objects.
This is the first issue researchers will have to solve by developing new algorithms for the planning and control of precise movements.
Due to the size of aircraft, and the very high number of tasks that need to be executed on a limited number of units, the use of specialised fixed-base robots, like those already in use by the automotive industry, is impossible in the aeronautical industry.
People still dispute self-driving trucking for the flimsiest of reasons: insurance, hijacking, etc.
I scoff at those pronouncements. Instead, I propose “We ain’t seen nothing yet!”
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I fully agree… the velocity and aggressiveness that ‘GOBS’ of companies are going after this is proof in the pudding that we will see major changes over the next 3-8 years. It’s coming ‘fast and furious’. Brad R.
You’ve been right all along on robotics and advancements, Mish, and the robot blogs have proved to be some that I look most forward to. I am also looking forward to the day when we can adapt robotics to congress. Just think, bribe free, scandal free, & special interest free representation. But what would we do with all the out of work politicians and lobbyists? They’ve never served any real useful purpose-ever…
Companies that never dreamed of replacing their human workforce with expensive robots can now do it because of the Fed’s Ultra Easy Money!
Yep … one of several reasons why I’ve always said ZIRP(NIRP)/QE disinflationary …. and deflationary when asset bubbles burst … cost of capital too cheap.
Absolutely
That’s the sort of unintended consequence that makes me wonder if maybe they are simply incompetent and not malicious. Still not sure though
We must embrace robotics and AI, not only for economic reasons, but for the sake human development as well. Let man as homo sapiens, I.e. wise and discerning man, come to full fruition instead of keeping him in some unbalanced and paltry state like homo economics.
That’s nice and all … but how is Bubba going to make $$s to pay the rent?
IT’S NOT ONLY ABOUT BUBBA BEING ABLE TO PAY RENT BUT BUBBA WON’T HAVE THE MONEY TO BUY OR USE THE PRODUCTS THE ROBOTS MAKE.
I WAS READING THE OTHER COMMENTORS AND YOU ARE THE ONLY ONE THAT DOESN’T THINK MONEY GROWS ON TREES. IT IS AMAZING HOW “PROFIT TAKING” DUMBS DOWN THE INDIVIDUAL. IT’S LIKE A NARCOTIC.
Sarah – Please turn off the caps or I start deleting comments
Mish
“People still dispute self-driving trucking for the flimsiest of reasons: insurance, hijacking, etc.”
Put me down as someone who believes hackers always one (or two) steps ahead.
Hackers exist and do stuff. So? Despite them, bank machines, pilotless drones, fully-automated storage facilities and other robotic technology exist and are widely used. Why should trucks be different?
Because they will be driving next to me.
And otherwise you would never get in contact with automated technology?
How many people die when an ATM hacked?
My point is a driverless truck has the power to kill me … and operating on the same road as I’m using … without my knowledge/consent.
Where are my rights?
OMG, Mary Bennett, how in heaven’s name do you overcome the vapors every morning? That HUMAN driver next to you is already 1000x more dangerous than any machine!
1000 times more dangerous? … Wow, my bad
Oh, say … can you point to me the study that proves that point?
Lest everyone here know that you’re talking out of your arse.
Mish
How long has the robot craze been right around the corner? 20 years!!
I think you are overly optimistic.
My computer still crashes. It has been about 25 years for the PC.
We have had robots for about 15 years. They are dumb and problematic. The newest ones are marginally better. Still nowhere near where they make a significant change in the workforce.
Keep dreaming. Dreams drive innovation.
Matt
An open letter to my wonderful grandchildren! And a warning also! This article below got my attention, as it pretended to be about robots building airplanes!! My last days at Boeing included, among other things, an assignment to manage a small team of young engineers who were to write software to program the design of Airplane body structure. This was a very first baby step, believe me. So, when I just saw this article, some twenty years later, about a robot that would actually build that structure, I was interested.
You see my original project would automate the design of airplane structure, putting engineers like me out of a job. This robot would now put the mechanics out in the shop who build airplanes out of a job also! Of course the product, Airplane structure would be much, much better, and much cheaper. The parts would always fit together, and aways work! We proved this when we used computers for the first time, to design the 777 digitally in 3 dimensions and without paper drawings.
Now comes the big surprise! Watch the film clip very closely. Watch what the robot it doing! It is building Legos! Now, we don’t need Kids any more either! You guys are out of a job too!
Grandpa!
These “humanoids” show an incredible lack of imagination. If they have to move around a lot why not suspend them from the ceiling? Why not make very tall and thin, 6 long arms that can do multiple jobs at once? Why not make them super small and drone based so they move quickly around inside an aircraft?
Replacing humans with stock “humanoids” seems like an extremely unimaginative and expensive way to do things. I’m betting this is just designed to look cool for a video and not much else. Maybe put a little fear in the machinists union.
It that comment is coming from an interpretation of the picture associated with the article I would suggest that the picture is just a stock photo of some random robots and not an actual product of the project since nothing has actually been produced yet.
4 year project that maybe will produce something?
Maybe solar and wind will be too cheap to meter too like nuclear and hydro.
It isn’t that I don’t think you are too engaged, but you aren’t engaged enough. Is your IRA 100% invested in robotics companies so that if they fail (like A123 and Solyndra for solar) you won’t have anything for retirement?
When I watch “How It’s Made” type shows some factories are almost there already. In the near future I see products designed around robotic capabilities to eliminate all human input and factories designed more as a machine. No bathrooms, break rooms, eyewash stations or even climate control. Why waste electricity and even turn the lights on if no humans are around?
The savings to manufacturers will be huge. But…..
Will the price of widgets actually go down for consumers?
Will manufacturers return from China?
My guess is some will and some won’t
Jobs? It would be foolish to operate inefficiently just to keep people busy. Parent’s: Dont raise your children to be factory workers or buggy whip makers.
“Jobs? It would be foolish to operate inefficiently just to keep people busy. Parent’s: Dont raise your children to be factory workers or buggy whip makers.”
I saw a headline the other week, projecting that 50% jobs would be gone by 2050. If that be true, there is a long list for parents not to raise their children to be.
Ron,
Very true. Fewer workers on the floor means fewer managers, janitors, security guards and human resource types.
There are already “lights out” factories in operation and the reason they operate this way as it is cheaper than inputting humans in to the operation. If you have a smart phone there are component assemblies within that are all but guaranteed to be produced in such factories. In the future reliable energy will become a much bigger driver of where factories are located even than today. (Though tax regimes, government risk, and supply chain costs will still rule the day in most cases.) I have seen automated factories in action and there is no stopping the tide to move in that direction.
Where I think you will see job growth over the years is in the “artisan” side of manufacturing. You are already seeing it today in the food and beverage industries in its largest manifestation, but it also exists for other consumer products such as clothing (outside the US to a much greater extent), knives, firearms, leather goods, etc.
Beer Drinker,
You are absolutely right. Artisan products will become the new “shadow economy”, but that will simply be enough to reproduce a feudal/barter/mostly austere economy for the overwhelming majority of the populace. We will still have to integrate monetary grace as in monetary Gifting into the regular economy in order to avoid the absurdity of feudal austerity amongst technologically abundant productive capacity to produce.
Every economist and pundit is a nascent advocate of Wisdomics/Gracenomics
wisdomicsblog.com
I wonder in what world an article about a 4 year research project to try to get closer to a robot that maybe some day could do some of the tasks of manufacturing part of a plane leads to the headline “humanoid robots to manufacture planes”. Talk about flimsy.
Then the straw man about the flimsy anti-self-driving truck arguments. The biggest problem by far is not insurance and hijacking but rather the remaining technical hurdles: Foul weather, poor lane markings, construction zones, detours, taking directions from traffic police or construction workers, etc, etc, etc. 98% of the way there does not get the human out of the truck.
Nothing exposes ignorance quite like fear. The way to bitch-slap a Luddite is to get them to put their money where their mouth is.
Shamrock,
I assure you I am not a straw man. If so Mish would have offered up something better than “Oh ye of little faith or vision” when I outlined how easy theft will be.
Everyone who thinks this technology is going to happen soon needs to ride around in a passenger car and imagine they are the computer making driving decisions. Notice how many times the car’s actual driver does something different than a computer would.
Is that a McDonalds bag or a huge boulder?
Is it worth swerving around?
A trashcan got set too far from the curb. Is it OK to use the opposite side of the road? When is it not OK to use the other side of the road?
If I drive through the puddle will it spray water all over the people at the bus stop?
Ok I wouldn’t swerve for that either.
You are absurd
Theft is not easy
Your proposal to bloc traffic via cones and steal trucks is absurd.
How the hell do you propose to unload the contents of a truck and drive it off.
If you think you can take an entire truck, as soon as you go off a designated route the truck will stop and police notified.
Similarly stopping traffic with cones – please be serious. Assume you were successful, how hard will it be to catch you when you are the only one moving?
Quite frankly your comments are absurd.
Computers are already making decisions you say they cannot, and the technology will be a hell of a lot better in the next 5 years than it is now.
Mish
This was in 2014…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDwMhSobaOg
The technology is there… It’s coming… Frankly, I believe you’ll have car fleets in major urban areas and owning cars will be a think of the past for most people. When you need to go somewhere, you’ll call for a car, it’ll show up in 5 minutes and take you there. The next generation doesn’t want to own cars.
Further to this…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156441/The-end-taxi-drivers-Uber-wants-buy-Tesla-s-self-driving-cars-rumours-suggest.html
Brad R.
Mish,
You are right. Steeling the whole truck would be absurd. That is why I never suggested it.
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I believe that insurance will be a hurdle for self driving vehicles but I also think in time it will be overcome. If it is a truly autonomous vehicle with no input from the passenger then who is at fault in an accident?. If the vehicle was properly maintained by the owner then I can’t see how he would have any accountability in the accident. The court battle would have to be between reckless driving by the other driver (but what if both cars are driverless?) or the fault of the vehicle manufacturer. Even if accidents were decreased by 50% or more that still leaves a huge amount of possible new liability to be laid at the feet of the manufacturer.
I think humanoid form is too weak and clumsy for this purpose. For locomotion and height adjustment I suggest tracks or wheels and hydraulic ram for altitude adjustment will be far more nimble, have greater range doing so far cheaper than having to produce and program ankles, knees and hips.
“My point is a driverless truck has the power to kill me … and operating on the same road as I’m using … without my knowledge/consent.”
Tony that’s ridiculous
The biggest cause of truck accidents is tired drivers
Accidents will decline 75%
By the way knives have the power to kill as well – so do lawn mowers and combines
Should we outlaw those as well?
Mish
“Accidents will decline 75%”
Says who? You?
Maybe on the tightly controlled tracks (or remote highways) where “success” is all but guaranteed. But in my neck of the woods. Laughable.
And
Last I checked knives, lawn mowers and combines have human operators.
If you are referring to the operator of those being killed (since not many stories of innocent bystanders getting whacked), you’re absolutely right.
But the operator made a CONSCIENCE decision – and of attendant risk – beforehand.
I want ZERO chance of being on an icy road with a driver less truck.
Don’t leave the house then
Mish
Yes these things will come to their own filling niches.
Self driving technology in cars can get its start parking cars in parkades at airports and other huge outdoor lots. Why walk a mile to your car?
Some hospital/ care facilities cannot remain open when their elevators are out of service and must be evacuated.
Mobile stair climbers would find a market backing up elevators.
This stuff will come…