Curve Watchers Anonymous has its eyes on the yield curve as always. A pair of charts, five-year duration and lower vs. one-year and higher looks increasingly recessionary.

Yield Curve 1-Year to 30-Years

yield curve 2013-02-23a

Yield Curve 3-Months to 5-Years

yield curve 2016-02-23

According to “leading economic indicator theory” this action is positive. I think leading economic indicator theory is nonsense.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock