After having ridiculously and recently placed Trump’s odds of winning the nomination in the low single digits, then the teens, Nate Silver now assesses Trump’s odds of winning at 50%.
Every step of the way, Silver underestimated the real driving force behind Trump: Attitudes.
Instead of following changing attitudes, Silver relied on history regarding non-mainstream candidates.
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
On February 21 Silver wrote Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War.
In that article, Silver gave a nice portrayal of the optimists vs. the skeptics but failed to note his own miserable track record as a skeptic. Regardless, Silver has finally seen the light as this Silver quote shows.
“Betting markets, weighing all of this information, see the Republican race thusly: Trump at about 50 percent to win the nomination, Rubio at 40 percent, and the rest of the field at 10 percent. I might quibble here and there, but that seems like basically a sound assessment. Now, let’s get back to arguing on Twitter.”
I can quibble too. Rubio at 40%! Why?
The only reason I can come up with is a brokered convention.
Product of Failed System
Whether or not you like or hate Trump (or Bernie Sanders), both are the Product of Failed System.
Donald Trump’s shocking transformation from reality-show host to Republican presidential front-runner is not some random and bizarre twist of fate. It grows from the failure of our political system to adapt to demographic change, economic disruption and a reorganizing world.
Trump’s victory Saturday in the South Carolina primary appears to have cleared away the cobwebs of denial.
Rubio promises an aggressively interventionist foreign policy of the kind that gave us more than a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Cruz pledges to double down on failed economic policies — deregulation, tax cuts, tight money — and turn back the clock on social changes such as same-sex marriage. Neither offers much that sounds new or promising.
So it should be no surprise that substantial numbers of Republicans are seduced by Trump, who proposes knocking the house down and starting over. His demagoguery succeeds not just because of his fame and charisma. In sometimes appalling ways, he addresses the hopes and fears of much of the Republican base.
His pledge to build a physical wall along the border with Mexico hits a nerve with white voters worried about the “browning” of the nation. His disparagement of free-trade agreements gives hope to blue-collar workers left behind by the flight of manufacturing jobs. His advocacy of restraint in the deployment of U.S. troops, even with the Middle East in flames, draws nods from war-weary military families and veterans.
And Trump’s diagnosis of what is wrong with our politics — that the politicians are bought and paid for by special interests — is essentially correct. His supporters may disapprove of his extreme rhetoric, some of which is racially tinged, but still appreciate the fact that he is beholden to no one.
Can either Cruz or Rubio stop him? It looks doubtful.
Many Americans seem to be questioning the traditional liberal-vs.-conservative paradigm. The parties might want to pay attention.
Where Silver Went Wrong
Silver has been given high praise, and deservedly so for calling past elections, Nonetheless, Silver has surely blown Trump’s odds of winning every step of the way this go around.
Silver went wrong by going with history rather than attitudes. That was a huge mistake for which I do not believe Silver has admitted.
Usually attitudes and history align. This time they didn’t. And it was obvious at least three months ago.
On January 8,Nate Silver wrote Three Theories Of Donald Trump’s Rise.
In that post Silver expressed belief that “Trump’s chances are about half of what betting markets say they are. I think they’re about half that – 12 or 13 percent.”
I commented Nate Silver’s Continual Underestimation of Donald Trump’s Chances.
In retrospect, Silver looks ridiculous.
To be fair, it’s certainly true that Trump’s odds of winning have risen with each victory.
To be equally fair, Silver has been behind the curve every step of the way by prioritizing history over attitudes.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Dennis Campbell said:
Deregulation, tax cuts, and tight money are failed economic policies? That’s all I need to know about Nate Silver.
So how’s your track record in calling presidential elections?… Deregulation of the airline was a big plus for the flying public whereas deregulation of financial markets was great for the banksters… Tax cuts when debt loads are not too onerous can be beneficial for economic growth. Yet tax cuts have also helped to torpedo Kansas’ budget, but I suppose you put more stock in Laffer than Silver (fine, whatever). The point being it’s a mixed bag as always.
Dennis Campbell said:
Deregulation of the banks was very beneficial to consumers. Back in the 1980s banks couldn’t operate across state lines, and some states e.g., Texas and Illinois, outlawed bank branches. Not very convenient. Interest rates were set below the rate of inflation – banks were forbidden to pay the going rate of interest in savings accounts. Not too consumer friendly. Deregulation had nothing to do with the crisis of 2008, which was caused by the federal government forcing banks to make risky loans, and by backstopping low quality loans. Why are banks to blame for doing what the feds wanted them to do? Tax cuts are good for an economy, but need to be accompanied by spending cuts. Nothing mixed about it.
Big Maq said:
Is the fact that Nate Silver catching up even news?
Mish doesn’t need to gloat on this point.
There is much more to the story than “changing Attitudes”, as if we were merely some outside observer.
We need clarity on what Trump really stands for, policy wise, in detail (given the general lack thereof). How viable are they?
What, in his past and present, makes us think that he is not in it just for himself?
We all have come across people who talk, walk and act like Trump. Do we think they are the types to solve our country’s problems, or are more likely to make them worse?
He looks more like a Kirschner than a Churchill.
If you have a blog and you want to talk about politics, talk about your support for Trump, or your critique. Not this minor stuff about Nate Silver.
You said it! NS is a Johnny come lately to everything!
Let’s not gloss over this. This is not a break down of conservative versus liberal unless the liberals intend on helping us conservatives shut down illegal immigration invasion that is happening as we speak.
Nothing wrong with tax cuts or de reg. Those are not what is to blame for the issues people have trouble with. The culprit? Easy money / Federal Reserve masters of the universe. It’s the FedRes / banksters and WallSt boys that pick our leaders and shut them out if they don’t comport themselves properly. That’s why Trump is the only choice.
Trump is an achiever. He leaves a trail of broken bodies, and he achieves objectives. Likewise he says what he means and he means what he says. He’ll be president, and it won’t be pretty.
He obtains objectives? Like what? Filing for bankruptcy? He achieved those 4 objective nicely.
If you think mainstream media and politicians are baffled now, wait until trump trounces Clinton in the general election with a Reagan level or greater landslide. Blue color democrats will overwhelmingly vote for trump over Clinton. I am not hearing anything about trump winning the Latino vote in Nevada either. The paradigm in politics has shifted but people are still in denial.
So Trump won that demographic too……..
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh…..I would prefer that the libtards be left clueless about how Trump is going to win until Nov 9. ( The day after election day )
Billy Walrus said:
I would prefer that the Republitards be left clueless about how liberal Trump is until Nov 9. (The day after election day)
This is a result of the parties killing themselves. They are so greedy and dumb that, like the banks, they take all the short-term gains up front and pay the consequences later. Blowback is a bitch. Even if Clinton wins, the writing is on the wall. The Republican party is pretty much over. The Dems are next.
huh? Nooo. When Trump wins that means the R’s have that much lead over the dems in rebuilding what was a rotted out structure.
I would agree. People have fantasies about how life should be before reality sets in. The parties will pay the price.
Did anyone heat Clinton say capital gains income should have social security and other taxes taken out. Eventually then investment community will vote with their feet. In picking the lesser of two evils they will pick Trump. Trump will eventually take political contributions because he knows using other people’s money is easier than using your own.
Trump may be the closest thing to an independent renegade presidency. IMO the biggest elephant in the room everyone is neglecting is the economy. Enough people are ticked off. Trump called them the silent majority and this may be the simplest explanation as to why he will become president.
Rain Coast Ghost said:
Door #1 A loud mouthed billionaire ‘playboy’ with multiple bankruptcies.
Door #2 A scheming political ‘tramp’ with untold lies in abundance.
America. Is this the best you can do? Hang your collective heads in shame.
What kind of future awaits you with “nightmares” behind both doors? For shame.
Yes yes by all means keep mistakenly believing your Trump characterizations.
I agree with the post. I have always understood Trump as tapping into the frustrations with obsessive political contention that results in heat but no light and actually no movement. He also is tapping into the frustrations of the mass of the populace over the prolonged economic downturn.
Liberals live in their orthodox fantasy land. Unfortunately conservatives/libertarians also have such orthodox fantasies. We need an economic and monetary integration that resolves the actual problems of modern technologically advanced economies. Trump apparently being both a pragmatist and a narcissist might actually be the more open minded and hence lesser ideological candidate to go for a third alternative set of policies that freed everyone and in the process aggrandizes himself.
Get over yourself. Trump a narcissist? I don’t think so. He’s too functional for that. He ACTS like he might be because it trolls you so easily.
Whoa freddy, we’re all narcissists to one degree or another unless or until we do the required inner work to resolve and unify it. Anyone seeking political power you can be assured has plenty of it. YOU are the one showing your conservative/libertarian trollishness.
I’m the only one here who has advocated integrating Wisdom into economic and monetary theory for the last 8-10 years which is the only way to resolve its problems and our personal problems as well.
Alex Spencer said:
What can I do now ? Can’t vote to continue the nightmare of the past three decades of policy failures with Clinton. Can’t support someone with no self control or concept of truth with Trump. Time to emigrate to Mexico before the wall is completed.
Once Hillary is indicted, there’s going to be an emergency ‘push’ to coalesce behind a new candidate. I suspect they’ll choose someone with a theatrics background (like Trump) who “looks presidential”.
Perhaps Martin Sheen? Morgan Freeman?
Why you think Obama called Bernie to the White House week before last?
Hillary is going down!
Before summer is my hunch………….
Hillary is more likely to drop dead from her health issues than she is to be indicted.
I hate tell you guys this but Hillary may be the next president. Big GOP donors and the Republican establishment and business establishment DO NOT want Trump (nor Sanders) and don’t be surprised if charges are dropped against Hillary and she suddenly becomes flush with big money.
She is already flush with Big Money. Bern updates his followers on that several times a week.
Alex Spencer said:
An army of politically connected bankers committing fraud were not indicted. So why would Hillary get indicted ?
What Hillary is guilty of is much more serious, and more readily ‘provable’ than mere banking fraud. Not only did she knowingly egregiously violate national security law as a sitting official, she illegally instructed subordinates to do the same.
POTUS can’t (and won’t) protect her. She’s finished.
Hillary makes Nixon look like a Sunday school nursery teacher……..
Watch for a Clinton/Sanders ticket – Clinton gets the mainstream liberals to the polls, Sanders gets the youth vote which he absolutely dominates since the kids, awoken by the fallacy of their 2008 “Change” candidate, don’t buy into the “party machine” candidates any more. After all, “Fool me once, shame on… shame on you. Fool me………….. you can’t get fooled again!”
My view? Anyone But Clinton. ABC! ABC! ABC! Hey, that could catch on.
ABC didn’t work in ’92 or ’96. Better that for the first time one of the Teflon Clintons should have an indictment stick. Her supporters could maybe switch to someone similar, someone like Tony Soprano for example.
Ah, but she has foreign policy experience! Indeed she does, with one disastrous policy after another, and she thinks that is a reason to make her POTUS:
“Better that for the first time one of the Teflon Clintons should have an indictment stick.”
Like all of those perp walks of the many “elites” responsible for the massive FRAUDS that resulted in the GFC? A Clinton in an orange jumpsuit is far too much to reasonably hope for in our grand oligarchy. “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”
So far as the UK general election last May goes, Silver and his pals were predicting a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party! I cannot now recall who is pals were on that occasion, but some outfit drafted by Silver after he realized that whatever techniques showed him the way in America, they did not work for him in the UK. Whether he or they were prioritizing history over attitudes who knows: they were materially wrong.
It all started with “press 1 for English”. Our sovereignty is fast disappearing. What happened to acculturation and learning the language of your new country? We all have relatives who successfully made the transition. Why are the new illegals so enabled?
Trump has been all over the place with his espoused opinions during the decades he has been in the public eye. There is no telling what he will do when he become President. But things are much worse economically than many realize and Trump’s opposition are even sorrier candidates than he. That’s why I won’t likely be voting this year.
Billy Walrus said:
If we are lucky, Trump will be our version of Hugo Chavez or Juan Peron. If we are not, Hitler or Mussolini.
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I’m curious, does anyone think we’d be in this nasty mess of an election year if the media hadn’t marginalized Ron Paul way back when he was running? If the Republican party had had a brain, they would have played nicely with him and we’d, most likely, would have had a far different recent history than the BS we’ve had to claim as our own American politics. All in the past, but boy I wished it had been different.
You mentioned media bias: where’s the outrage?
I think I’ve seen that before. Stewart kinda made it a personal mission to highllight that problem on his show.
NarsiV (@narsiv) said:
I said Trump vs Bernie and that call still holds. The hell with Nate. Too much hubris and he gets humbled.
The republicans have been humbled at least. The dems are so arrogant about carrying Hillary. Their fall will be quite precipitous. Nevada was quite a surprise.
I won’t be surprised if some big GOP donors don’t go for Hillary this year.
That is I won’t surprised if some big GOP donors DO go for Hillary.
Yes, the neo-cons, woot. They don’t like old school republicans.
Ron J said:
“I’m curious, does anyone think we’d be in this nasty mess of an election year if the media hadn’t marginalized Ron Paul way back when he was running?”
We have been in an economic depression for 8 years. Goldman Sachs announced that JEB or Hillary was acceptable to them. The party establishments planned on JEB and Hillary being the nominees. The electoral choice for the public was to be Goldman Sachs or Goldman Sachs.
I think we would be where we are, whether or not Ron Paul was marginalized in 2012.
That’s a depressing bit of info.
Old Guy said:
People ae tired of career politicians is all. Trump’s message is clear and concise to all of these haters. The question is will he deliver if elected on his promises. My take is I hope he gets elected and the congress has a super majority of repubs. Why? To see if they can do any better then the Dems.
You can bet repubs are kicking, screaming, and pissed, their anointed ones are not winning either. I think Trump will not get any support if elected from a repub majority in the both houses. This will just show how dysfunctional our government really is. I do not care who wins the presidential elections, but I would like to see if the repubs can do better then the Dems did when they had a super majority.
I happen to like Trump over Hillary as she should be brought up on federal charges. Plus I am just as tired of the Clintons as I am the Bushes.
Old Guy said:
By the way Trrump and Palin for the win LOLOLOLOL!!!!!
Here is another very good article about the election situation:
“all candidates are terrible in their own way (as in nearly every election). And yet, we certainly like the fact that Trump and Sanders are busy shaking the establishment to the core.”
NarsiV (@narsiv) said:
Not sure when it sets is but Nate’s failure is due to Hubris. Somewhere along the line when folks see themselves on TV or mentioned in multiple posts, they get this Trump size balls and think they are infallible.
Trump humiliated the republicans but the dems haven’t had their waterloo yet. I guess they will nominate Hillary to see Trump win with a ton or “I told you so. Bernie atleast had a chance.”
This goes to you too Mish.
Bernie is still in it.
Very much so. It is a very sad day for the dummycrat party when a declared socialist has the same number of primary delegates (at this time) as the preferred Party Anointed. Hard to see how they could do any worse on the choices. I am not suggesting the repubs have any great choices either, now that R. Paul had to drop out.
Rick Weldon said:
Nate Silver, white Americans aren’t worried about the “browning” of America they’re worried about millions of low income individuals being dumpted wholesale into their school systems, hospitals and nursing homes and being left with the tab. Any otherwise decent human being that tries to come to grips with economic reality is branded as racist. That’s the nature of political reality in the 21st century.
The reason most pundits like silver missed is their theories fail the test of why outcomes happen. They happen not only because of attitudes but because of their flawed models. Silver’s models worked until they didn’t because his models never took into account the effect of an outsider on the race and what would happen if an insurgent funded his own campaign. Ironically Silver’s model cannot take into account the effect of social media which didn’t exist to the extent of previous elections. Trump is set to become the first social media nominee for President. No forecasting model will ever be able to predict the viral nature of social media and how it will impact the outcome.
A huge demographic group in America is sick and tired of being treated like dirt for the past 50 years. This demographic group knows it produces the wealth and pays the majority of taxes.
They are sick of it. They are mad and they will vote for Trump REGARDLESS of how much feces is thrown at him. Trump will throw it back AND pee on you.
The fat slob from Italy did the best thing for Trump. This loser who never had a job, hides behind a FIFTY foot wall, guarded by MEN with fully automatic, 30 Round, Assault machine guns ( I know. I’ve been there 4 times in my life). He dares to take on The Donald? Idiot.
The more “they” insult Donald, the better it is. Donald is the only candidates with the guts to give the disgusting Republicans and Democrats a particular finger and mouth “FU”.
I love the man.
Looks like all of the RNC primary rules manipulation to insure a “mainstream” candidate gets nominated has totally backfired. (Not that the Dems haven’t manipulated the rules also to insure Hillary gets the nod) So our choice will be between a Socialist (either Bernie or Hillary) and a Buffoon.
Trump vs Clinton is the reality? This is precisely why i am disliking your blog more and more. You show an ever increasing bias for your own ideas in stark contrast to facts: Sanders is in a dead heat with Clinton and has the momentum. I know you hate everything Sanders represents but that is no excuse for you being blinded by your own self applied labels to issues like these.
I no longer trust your opinion.
If you think Sanders has a chance you are in Fantasyland
But quite frankly, I hope I am wrong
Dennis Campbell said:
No way Sanders is the nominee for the Dems. I wish it were otherwise, as it would insure a GOP victory.
J (@Orelindel) said:
trump v. hillary means a hillary victory. the media is giving trump a pass right now cause they want him to be the GOP candidate. wait until the general election when they go after him guns blazing.
I think Trump wins it all
Precisely. People are sick and tired of being sick and tired.
I find Trump to be a loose cannon, no telling which way he’s going to shoot. I was surprised that Trump supported continuing RPS and subsidization of ethanol and wind and solar:
Trump in Favor of Subsidies for Wind Energy
Anybody who knows the technical facts behind renewable is that it really takes more energy to make them then they really provide. It’s just a crony corporate politico welfare game where taxpayer money is laundered via politico campaign funding. It’s like you have 100% coal and 5% coal. The regular coal is 500 miles away but the 5% coal is right next to you. The deception is that it’s easier to harvest the 5% coal then go 500 miles for the 100% coal. Many people just don’t see the logistics and cost of renewables versus fossil fuel, they look at the mirage of free energy. It’s not free to harvest, it’s not sustainable.
Trump has a lot of baggage and his highschool potty rhetoric doesn’t help much, it’s not just the the illegal labor workforce with his casinos and else, and the Trump University scam. Trump supported a single payer healthcare system, is that freemarket principles? Is he getting in there for Trump or the American people? To me he comes off like a politico godfather, The Don!
Cruz initially tried to buck the establishment until they ran over him and he had to acquiesce. Reagen had the same kind of opposition and it took him awhile to get stuff done.
So that’s my dilemma. Whose going to be best a getting good stuff done?
Sorry, Trump: Past businessmen did poorly as presidents
Trump is a loose cannon.
But would you rather have a loose canon or a confirmed idiot?
I can concur, I got some updates about Trump.
Could Trump be the JFK vers 2?
PTrump, the Greatest Threat to the Establishment Since JFK
US Defense Watch ^ | February 28, 2016 | Ray Starmann
You got to listen to this interview by Alex with a GOP insider, he knows what’s going on.
You will never hear this on the MSM of course, the election process is flawed.
And here is another good article about what’s really happening:
Americans Really, Really Hate The Government
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016
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