As a result of trade gap and personal spending reports today, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for first quarter 2016 declined 0.4 percentage points to 2.1%.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 2.1 percent on February 26, down from 2.5 percent on February 25. The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 3.1 percent to 3.5 percent following this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This was more than offset by a downward revision of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth from 0.2 percentage points to -0.4 percentage points after this morning’s GDP release from the BEA.
GDPNow Forecast 2016-02-26
Factors in Decline
- Trade Gap Widens: Exports Sink 2.9% vs. Imports Down 1.5%
- Consumer Spending, Personal Income Both Rise 0.5%; Core PCE Jumps to 1.7%
The net effect of the above reports was a 0.4 percentage point drop from the previous estimate.
Today’s GDP report was for the fourth quarter of 2015 and it did not affect the GDPnow model.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I think Monkeys with darts could do a better job than the FED.
slow motion collision movie is playing out in regards to GDP projections globally
Climate models and GNP models are adjusted to fit the hypothesis.
Old Guy said:
They must lower the expectations as most people do not follow this. Then when it comes in higher then the lowered expectations the government and Fed cheer about how great we are doing!!!!! People and voters are left cheering as they forgot or most likely never knew the GDP was lowered several times. Gotta love a winner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You cannot make this up anymore! This is how PSYOPS works so well on the masses.
Wow, it’s way up from the initial estimates.
It’s the old shell game. Been around for centuries. The average human mind just hasn’t evolved to the point to be able to figure it out. It’s a staple in the bag of tricks used by con artists. Still works like a charm to this day. I’m darn glad I’m as old as I am.