Alleged “Dead Heat” Dies Sudden Death
Bernie Sanders got clobbered in South Carolina in Saturday’s primary. It’s now do or die for Sanders and die it will be.
Those clinging to “national” numbers got a huge wake-up call this evening. National popularity figures don’t matter if a candidate gets blown out of the water on “Super Tuesday” as will likely happen judging from the results in South Carolina.
Bernie Sanders got scorched in a 74%-26% rout as Bernie Sanders flops with black voters.
Reality Sets In
Three days ago I said Reality Sets In: It’s Trump vs. Clinton.
As frequently with my political posts, someone gets upset and threatens to stop reading me.
For example, reader Gordon commented “Trump vs Clinton is the reality? This is precisely why i am disliking your blog more and more. You show an ever increasing bias for your own ideas in stark contrast to facts: Sanders is in a dead heat with Clinton and has the momentum. I know you hate everything Sanders represents but that is no excuse for you being blinded by your own self applied labels to issues like these. I no longer trust your opinion.”
I replied … “If you think Sanders has a chance you are in Fantasyland. But quite frankly, I hope I am wrong.”
Why would I hope I am wrong?
Hillary Clinton is the war candidate. The likelihood of a major war breaking out under Clinton are at least as good as a war breaking out with Ted Cruz.
Sanders has little chance of getting his socialist policies passed. Except for waging war, the president does not do much without support of Congress.
The biggest negative for Sanders pertains to Supreme Court nominees, not his idiotic economic policy proposals.
In direct contrast to what reader Gordon wrote, I would actually welcome a Trump-Sanders campaign. Yes, that’s a very sorry choice, but at this point it’s the best we can do.
While other bloggers refuse to comment on such matters, I speak my mind even though it may cost readership.
So be it.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
You’re the man Mish… Keep up the great work and stick to your guns!!!!
Yup!
Mish is amazingly good. My first comment here on WordPress, I just want to see if it goes through. Blog on dudes!
good work Mish……. some of us appreciate your opinion and information …… thank’s for your inside views ……….
I guess i have the same problem as Mish. Maybe I have “an ever increasing bias for your own ideas in stark contrast to facts”. My idea is I hope most Americans still have enough intelligence to reject candidates who represent socialism/communism and a certified pathological lying crook warmonger. But I have been disappointed before.
Bernie Sanders doesn’t scare me a bit. If elected, he would never get much of his agenda through any Congress, Republican or Democrat. As you noted, the other Democratic candidate, Hitlery Clinton, is ‘a certified pathological lying crook warmonger’ though I think you are being much too polite toward her.
I think the reality is that both major parties have sold out the country to the special interests. Obama ran in 2008 on ‘Hope and Change’ but he sold out to the Wall Street banker cabal the day he took office. Now, the Republicans get money for endless wars plus trade agreements, while the Democrats get money for endless expansion of social programs and a green light to promote mass illegal immigration. What everyday Americans get is screwed.
Neither Sanders nor Trump is part of the Establishment, which is why they have such broad appeal. If somebody isn’t elected in 2016 who can stop the Establishment’s raping of America, there won’t be a country left when the 2020 election rolls around.
really?? what did Obama say he was gong to do that he didn’t do in his first two years in office?? Name one thing
Obama’s two signature pieces of legislation, Dodd-Frank and Obamacare, are disasters. He has been a weak president.
Obama extended Bush era tax cuts that were already scheduled to expire in 2010 had he merely allowed them to. Then, having prevented that one fundamental fiscal change from passively occurring, he spent the next six years blaming Bush for the mess he left the country in.
There you go. I named one.
A list of Obama’s campaign lies would be too long to put here, so I’ll just give you one, with a link to more details: Obama said he would protect whistleblowers who expose government corruption. Just the opposite has happened:
https://www.aclu.org/blog/leak-prosecutions-obama-takes-it-11-or-should-we-say-526
Hey Mish……. LOL, some of us do appreciate your work and opinion or point of view …….. thank’s for your inside information ……
How about the fact that she is a liar and a criminal?
Unfortunately, Hilary the next president. Trump is not electable. I disagree with Mish in that Cruz is the most libertarian candidate in the race, but he is not electable either.
I think Trump wins it all
Plenty of angry white men will switch for him
Mish
Trump will win in a crushing epic landslide versus Hillary. People should carefully watch a YouTube video of one of his rallies – listen closely and you’ll realize his ‘movement’ will only grow over the next few months.
BTW – I am terrified of Trump, but recognize his compelling attraction to the vast majority of voters.
Republican turnout is up 20%. Democrat turnout is down 20%. Hillary is going to prison. Mexicans are building the wall. Meet Justice Diane Sykes.
If you actually think Mexicans are building the wall, I have a bridge I can let you have cheap.
I presume Mexico is building a wall on it’s southern border with Guatemala. At least that is what her immigration policy supports.
No, Trump will win the nomination; the Republican leadership will run Romney to split the vote and ensure a Hillary win.
That’s because Republicans are not RINO-that’s a contradiction in terms. Rather, the Rep party is CINO, and in fact is one party with the Democrat party.
“Hillary is going to prison.”
You actually still have faith in the “justice” system? Really? How many Wall Street frauds related to the global financial crisis were brought to trial? Then there’s this from a Salon article written by a former Obama admirer:
Kiriakou spent 15 years in the CIA, first as an analyst and then as a covert operative. He was involved in the capture of Abu Zubaydah, and apparently knew that the alleged senior al-Qaida operative was waterboarded by CIA interrogators, although he was not directly involved.
Kiriakou’s decision to talk about CIA torture in a 2007 interview ultimately landed him in prison. But it’s an arcane and suggestive tale and, at least officially, his crime had nothing to do with what he said about Zubaydah and waterboarding. Kiriakou revealed the last name of a covert agent — inadvertently and in passing, he says — to an ABC News journalist named Matthew Cole, who said he was planning to write a book but was actually gathering information for defense lawyers working with detainees at Guantánamo Bay. Later, Kiriakou believes, Cole became a government informant. The whole thing would puzzle John le Carré and Immanuel Kant put together.
Even though Kiriakou’s purported offense occurred when George W. Bush was in the White House, it was Obama’s Justice Department that decided to investigate and prosecute him, a three-year process that left him bankrupt, unemployed and more than a million dollars in debt. In the end, he would up spending nearly two years in prison because he mentioned one person’s last name in one email. When it comes to why the Obama administration has repeatedly taken that approach, Kiriakou sounds just about as puzzled as the rest of us.
“When you’ve got four shiny stars on your shoulder and you’re described as the ‘president’s favorite general’ and you say something that makes the president look good, you’re not going to get an espionage charge.” He is talking there about retired Gen. James Cartwright, who is suspected of leaking info about Stuxnet, the CIA computer virus that targeted Iran’s nuclear program, but was never prosecuted. “Or when you have those four shiny stars on your shoulder and you leak to your freaking girlfriend the names of 10 covert operatives, you get a pass.” That would be Gen. David Petraeus, the former CIA head who revealed far more information than Kiriakou did, and served no jail time.
“Or when you’re Hillary Clinton and you’ve got whatever it is now, 83 top-secret documents on your private server, you’re gonna get a pass,” Kiriakou continued. “It’s when you report on waste, fraud, abuse or illegality, or you embarrass the government or contradict a policy, that’s when the whole weight of the government is gonna crash down on your head.”
Please identify one banker who committed a crime and was not charged.
Did I limit it to bankers when I said “Wall Street frauds”? No, I didn’t. And there have been numerous documentaries, some film length, and even a 60 Minutes segment where those in the DO”J” at the time who could have brought cases against relevant individuals basically admitted they didn’t do so out of fear of jeopardizing the “recovery.”
Below is just one of the MANY videos by a former investigator in the Credit Union scandal who back then helped bring about the federal indictments of over 1000 individuals involved in that crime (the Reagan administration fought that effort, BTW), Dr. William K. Black, now a university prof and white collar crime criminologist. If you want to see many more, just search YouTube:
Since this message interface doesn’t allow editing, WK Black was an investigator in the _Savings and Loan_ scandal, not “Credit Union” scandal.
Winston,
I am even a bit more cynical than you. I believe the combination of computers/internet has made voting irrelevant.
The internet made all jobs globally vulnerable.
Computers made choosing an election outcome a matter of mouse clicks by those in control. In the last election Illinois was one of 18 states tallied by a single private company.
In a few decades we have allowed a political elite to take over. Both parties are members of the same club.
If they can… “they” will.
“1984” is finally here, as is “A Brave New World”.
Hillary is going to prison? She hasn’t even been charged with anything yet. This will die on its own. Americans have short memories anyway
i would vote for Trump over Hillary
A lot of my yellowdog friends state they will vote of Trump if Hillary is the democrat candidate. The only reason Hillary won so big is because of the Black vote otherwise Bernie would have won big time.
The people in the audience at the Hillary Clinton victory speech in South Carolina looked like the dregs of society. Toothless, fat etc…
“The people in the audience at the Hillary Clinton victory speech in South Carolina looked like the dregs of society. Toothless, fat etc…”
Welcome to the Democrat party!
Thanks Mish. ABC or ABH, anyone besides Clinton.
Bernie is not totally dead yet. He got smoked among black voters, and in South Carolina is they were a majority of the voters in the Dem primary. That will not be the case in that many states, so the Bern may be able to hang in there for a while.
Mr. Sanders’ reality check is already in the mail.
Next Tuesday, the “mail” is scheduled to be delivered. Next Wednesday, the real election gets started.
Doesn’t Sanders still stand a chance if he wins the big Northern states like California and New York?
New York could go her way, unfortunately, CA should be solid for Bernie, but I believe they use proportional delegate representation, which would mute the effect of a Bernie win.
Trump & Mish would be great 🙂
Trump Billary!
Mish,
I had to literally laugh out loud when I read, “You show an ever increasing bias for your own ideas in stark contrast to facts…”
So, why not simply accept the “facts” as fed to us by the politically biased media. Official gov. data, which the media dish out by the shovelful, is so totally manipulated that it is a sick joke.
This is exactly why Sanders and Trump have such a following.
Mish,
you’re the bees knees when it comes to financial blogs.
keep up the good work.
Even before the primary, Hillary had an overwhelming lead in delegates due to DNC rigging.
Rubio is more dangerous than Cruz.
Some speak their mind and show their stupidity
Some speak their mind and show their wisdom
Polls show that Sanders would easily defeat any of the Republicans in the general election. They also show that only Trump would defeat Clinton. So let’s hope Trump wins the nomination. Ironically, African-Americans will be the deciding factor in ensuring Trump is the next President. We live in interesting times.
The polls show no such thing. Wrong on all counts.
Google is your friend.
The very reason I read your blog is for your opinion and perspective. I’m not supposed to agree with you; for that is the hallmark of a closed mind.
I get into arguments with other actuaries all the time about my predictions — I have to keep reminding them that what I’m doing is predicting what =will= happen, not what I want to happen.
The second is not as important as the first. Plenty of people talking about what they want. I know what I want, but it’s irrelevant to what actually will occur.
Sanders had no chance from the get go. Delegates were impossible for him to overcome all the way (see link). Hillary has some serious and unavoidable obsticles to getting to the finish line. Hence the sampling of other Dem”s/Independents running being continuously tossed into the frey for polling purposes. Even Perot style interference options. I believe that America is tired of SOP in politics. We will certainly see this year if that is the case.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
I forgot the complementary “Mish” style video tribute 🙂
Nah… More like “The Revolution Will Not Be Televised” because there won’t be one. Everyone is too busy tweeting what they had for lunch as they bury their noses in their iToys or reasonable facsimile. Games and circuses…
The only thing that has any hope of waking them up is total economic collapse and even then, 2008 obviously wasn’t enough and the widespread public ignorance of economic topics won’t make it likely that they’ll make the right choices even if and when they do wake up.
My cynicism is the same as that of our dear, departed George Carlin on this topic. Two quotes which go a long way toward explaining the world situation – “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that” – George Carlin; “One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not.” – Alexandre Dumas
The DNC primary results need to be dissected more carefully. Hillary has a commanding lead over Sanders when super delegates are counted, and a slight lead based only voter choice. This leads to possible outcomes:
1.) The DNC does not fairly represent voters since super delegates can override the voice of the people. Sanders could earn the most voter support and still not be nominated; so there is nothing democratic about the Democratic party.
2.) Sanders could run as an independent, and take votes away from Hillary.
3.) Trump could fund and independent Sanders campaign as insurance that Hillary does not win.
Sanders will not run as an independent. He will try to pull the Democrat platform further to the left.
“This leads to possible outcomes:”
No, a Hillary/Sanders ticket will be the result, a bone thrown to the youth vote which is solidly with Sanders due to their justifiable total disillusionment with their “Change” candidate they voted into office. Or, maybe they’ll finally wake up to the “Your Vote Matters” illusion and not vote at all if Sanders isn’t nominated as he won’t be.
As an independent who, in retrospect, thinks every choice I’ve been allowed to vote for for oligarchy figurehead has sucked for my entire life, I might actually bother vote this year for Trump just to throw a wrench into the corrupt, bought and paid for Republican machine. If I could vote twice, I’d vote for Sanders, too, just to throw a wrench into that machine. Both produce nothing but “corrupt status quo” defenders because of the political machine vetting process which is designed to ensure that.
The Democrat superdelegates began following Sen McGovern’s selection in 1972 against Nixon in 1972. The democrats had a large number of REALLY energized, antiwar youth and got their way; Nixon’s machine dominated the national election. Ever since then, the DNC hasn’t trusted the democratic process. Their current schtick is corrupting software-based voting machines. Before then, it was chads (which would NOT have happened but for Palm Beach county’s ballots giving the district to a fortunately-located hole punch that was right next to Al Gore’s–the Independent, Patrick Buchanan, won that district. After Nixon, I hadn’t feared any major voter fraud from the Republican side. I can’t wait until we can vote using block-chain-secure transactions.
We saw the same tactics used in 2008 with Obama supporters. Anyone who said anything about Clinton winning the nomination was harassed with threats of excommunication. They also had droves of people writing “I was a huge Hillary supporter but now that you said xyz, I am changing my vote to Obama.” It’s all crap, of course, they were 100% Obama to begin with. Deceit and bullying are now essential tactics among the most liberal democrats. As they say, inside every liberal is a totalitarian dying to get out.
Was it FDR that stated “Presidents are selected, not elected?” Clinton has been selected. We may not like that, but it’s just the way it is.
And to assure her selection, the Federal Reserve Chief along with Goldman, will see to it that the skids are well greased.
The MIlitary Industrial Complex is the only thing keeping the economy from imploding at this juncture. It will be preserved at all costs.
I guess I have a different take on things than most posters here. My guess is that Rubio is the odds-on favorite to become the next president. Here’s why.
Donald Trump has show that he can consistently take 40% of the Republican vote. He will never get any more than that. As the primaries drag on, Kasich and Carson will eventually withdraw. All of Kasich’s and Many of Carson’s supporters will go over to the Rubio camp, while the remainder of Carson’s supporters will switch to Cruz. This will give Rubio a decisive lead over Cruz and will narrow the gap between him and Trump.
The wild card here is Cruz. If he drops out before Cleveland, Rubio will take the nomination in the early balloting, and Trump will gracefully concede. Rubio will slaughter Clinton in the November election, who will look old and tired in comparison while the Sanders Dems stay home.
If Cruz carries his 20% past Super Tuesday, Trump may win outright, since the GOP primaries after March 14 are winner-take-all. There are some big states holding their primaries after that, including Florida, Illinois, New York, California, and Pennsylvania. If Cruz sticks around, Trump may take all of these. The November election will be quite exciting should this happen.
If neither Trump nor Rubio take the nomination on the first few ballots, a political brawl within the GOP will ensue. If Rubio comes out on top, Trump will justifiably feel cheated and will run for the national election as an independent, splitting the GOP vote. Start practicing the phrase “Madame President”.
The real monkey wrench in the gears will come about if Cruz controls enough delegates to prevent either of the other two from securing the GOP nomination. It is certainly within Cruz’s character to angle for the nomination by simply refusing to concede his delegates to either of the major candidates. As improbable as it seems, Cruz could emerge as the only candidate who can secure the nomination, as ballot after ballot ends indecisively. In this case, Trump once again feels justifiably cheated and runs as an independent, splitting the GOP vote. Not only that, but a Cruz nomination would bring Democrats out to the polls in droves. Once again, it’s “Madame President.”
One thing we can say about all of this is highly entertaining. Not much else except maybe scary, but at least it’s entertaining.
The Republican candidate, whoever it is will get 90% of the Republican vote if not more
Trump has an advantage over Rubio in that he is less likely than Rubio, Cruz, or Hillary to start a war.
Most are damn tired of war.
And Trump will appeal to a lot of angry white male democrats for numerous reason. Rubio won’t.
Let’s be honest here. We’re going to get more war regardless of who’s elected. JFK is the object lesson in what happens when a president starts bailing out on wars that the Pentagon wants. Given the about-face that every until-then dovish president in the last 50 years has made after his first three days in office, I’m just guessing that such presidents are “made aware” of the risks of the presidency at a brief security meeting in the first 72 hours of his tenure.
“Rubio will slaughter Clinton in the November election, who will look old and tired in comparison while the Sanders Dems stay home.”
Let me see him finish first in a primary first. Rubio is an invention of the mad scientists in the RNC laboratory and gives robot like responses as his handlers have programmed him to do. Hillary will handle him just fine, and oh, just wait until those mad scientists get a dose of her running mate.
The GOP needed to take down Obama in 2008 and failed. I don’t think they can win the presidency with any of their 17 candidates now. Romney’s 47% are all in chains, utterly enslaved, and must support their (Democratic) masters.
And if the distinguished former mayor of NYC, billionaire and male nanny Bloomberg decides he better come in and save the day…..
There is no meaningful difference between the Republican and Democratic parties. Trump vs Clinton may make for entertaining kabuki theater, but the truth is they offer a distinction without a difference.
Although they may be bought by different special interests, the special interests that do own them (or will own them once in office) share an absolute and unequivocal mission to agitate for war, grow the size of government, empower the Stasis spy apparatus, advocate for more state sponsored fascism, and use “terrorism” as an excuse for every repugnant, immoral, and illegal action they take, all of which leads to less freedom for the people.
Both political parties are owned and controlled by the same deep state actors. Any rational person (which does not include the average voter) can see that the two party political system is rouse designed to create the illusion of a “democracy”, which deludes the citizens into a false belief that they have the power, when in fact they have none.
The system was set up to ensure elections don’t matter whatsoever and the act of voting an exercise in futility. No matter which party is in power or which candidate sits in the oval office, the status quo will be maintained and the deep state will remain firmly in control.
Turn off the TV. Stay home. Do not vote — it only encourages the bastards.
I speak my own mind as is why I am banned from so many blogs. So be it. I’m right and those who ban me are idiotic fools.
Trump is not our worry. The NEXT guy is. Trump is like John the Baptist warning us of what is coming. Trump is our LAST chance to stop the madness. He won’t succeed.
The next candidate will either be America’s conservative version of Hitler or the left’s version of Stalin. Either way, the solution to our problems will be violence and killings.
You all better hope for Trump and work with him. He may say nasty things, but the next guy will use fully automatic machine guns.
Oh, the drama!
I’ll still read you Mish 🙂
And I like the new layout
I would actually pay to see a Trump/Sanders debate, the entertainment value would be high.