Republicans went to the polls in four states today on this Semi-Super Saturday: Maine, Kansas, Kentucky and Louisiana. Democrats voted in Louisiana, Kansas and Nebraska.
Early indications are such that Cruz will win Kansas with ease. Polls are still open in the other states.
But Kansas, Maine, and Kentucky are Caucus states where organization counts more than primary states.
Nate Silver explains in Semi-Super Saturday: Semi-Live Coverage
We now have 12 percent of precincts reporting in Kansas, and it looks like Cruz land. He leads 50 percent to Trump’s 25 percent and Rubio’s 14 percent. Not only that, but Cruz holds a significant lead in all three of the congressional districts currently reporting results. Unless something changes significantly, Cruz is going to win Kansas with ease.
When watching the results from Kansas and Maine, keep in mind that both are closed caucuses. That means you have to be a registered member of the party to participate, while many Trump supporters come from outside the Republican Party. If the early results hold and Trump disappoints in both states, the closed nature of the caucuses could be one reason why. Also, organization matters a lot in caucuses. Cruz is generally regarded as the best organized candidate.
Kansas polls (40 delegates) are closed. Kentucky (46 delegates) closes at 4:00 PM CT, Maine (23 delegates) at 6:00 PM CT, and Louisiana (46 delegates) at 8:00PM CT.
Thresholds for winning delegates are low. All the candidates will pick up delegates. Today’s results won’t mean anything in the grand scheme of things unless Marco Rubio does so poorly that he decides to step aside.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I am keeping my fingers crossed and hoping Cruz can mount a challenge to Trump.
You must want war
I don’t, and I support Cruz. Rand Paul has dropped out (my first choice). Not that any of this matters on Trump’s current trajectory …
Of the remaining Republicans, my opinion is that:
– Cruz is the least interested in overseas adventurism, based on the overall long-term. I am perhaps over-discounting his recent statements on ISIS, perhaps wrongly, relative to his overall statements that indicate a need to engage less militarily overseas. I could be wrong, but he has tried to stake something out between Paul and pretty much the rest of the Republican party.
– Rubio is clear carbon-copy of failed Bush / neocon policies. Doesn’t get my support or vote
– Trump’s policies are hard to distinguish given the changes in position to a greater degree than the others. But seems open to military adventurism and disaster to a greater degree than Cruz. He expressed approval of the Iraq war at the time, but has now criticized it and the Republican party for not being honest about the mistake. The criticism is accurate – the sincerity of the conversion, I am not so sure. That’s an easier call to make now than at the time, and he didn’t make it at the time.
I think it is accurate that Cruz is not nearly as hawkish, but feels less at liberty to show it since the Republican voter pool in large parts started to get more aggressive in the fall/winter of the primary.
Some quotes from the fall before everyone started tacking towards aggressive dialogue:
“The Bush years trained liberals to think of neoconservatism as the paramount expression of right-wing foreign-policy extremism. But neoconservatism runs against the grain of an older and deeper conservative tradition of isolationism. Cruz has flitted about the edges of the libertarian right, sometimes forming alliances in the Senate with Rand Paul, an isolationist who — after briefly being in vogue — has largely been marginalized within his party. At the last Republican foreign-policy debate, Cruz identified himself with that creed more openly than he ever had. Just as Rubio’s buzzwords signal his neoconservative affiliation, Cruz conveyed his isolationism by calling for an “American-first foreign policy” and dismissing Rubio as a “Woodrow Wilson democracy promoter.” The face-off between Rubio and Cruz at that debate represented something far more profound than the usual exchange of canned sound bites.”
I am disappointed that Cruz has expressed things like “leaving the sand glowing” as part of his foreign policy discussion. If accurate expression of sentiment … well I’m wrong. However, he opposed Libya intervention and has expressed many more times the need to be more reserved.
No problem taking incoming barbs from those who disagree, or those who say pure libertarian or nothing, or think I’m splitting hairs among a bunch of war mongers. Most politicians lie, pander, and shade their positions in the winds of changing public opinion, making it hard to know what they will do if elected.
I think with Hillary, Rubio, Trump and Cruz … there are going to have problems with all. I am (perhaps foolishly) hoping for the least with Cruz.
I think Trump is politically very smart and I think he will shamelessly utilize demagoguery to get to his goal. After that I would bet you 10 to 1 he’s a moderate whose mind is at least open on certain matters. I never said I liked him, I just don’t feel the need to swallow liberal or conservative media and political orthodoxy. Anyone can drink the liberal kool-aid propaganda as much as they want, and right up until Trump is elected….I drink neither the liberal nor the libertarian/conservative kool-aid, I’m outside of the box and can see the idiocies and particles of truth in both perspectives. I’m even outside of the Social Credit box. I’m for looking and seeing and integrating. Not re-gugitating orthodoxy in any way.
I’m hoping Cruz is not the war monger he makes himself out to be. like many Rand Paul was my first choice, but the fact Cruz was against NSA and a bigger Washington gives me a small bit of hope. However I find myself solidly in the Trump camp, by default, and feel Trump is more central than he sounds.
It is now obvious that a series of big wins by Trump did not silence the political pundits and naysayers who are in a tither and want him gone. Many of the insiders have simply underestimated how angry the voters are. Now efforts to tie him to racism are being added to claims he does not offer details.
As far as the issue of a candidate providing “specific plans” since when and why would that be important? The sad reality is specifics don’t matter and vision trumps promises. More on this subject in the article below;
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2016/02/trump-must-start-to-provide-specific.html
“You must want war”
And you must want Trump.
For a free market, limited government guy, you sure are limiting yourself in your criticism of Trump, but are rather quick to criticize the others.
Why is that?
Are you really supporting Trump over the others, but won’t come out and say it?
I support Trump and I said why.
I have also criticized Trump numerous times.
Trump is one of two non-warmongers. Bernie is the other.
Mish
Thanks for your reply.
“Trump’s increasingly extreme message, coupled with his announcement he supports totally discredited torture procedures such as waterboarding, makes Trump hard to take? But what is the alternative?…
My preferred choice would be a Libertarian like Ron Paul. But a middle-of-the-road candidate with moderate views on tax hikes, spending cuts, welfare, military spending, abortion, etc., would likely win a presidential election by a landslide except for one not-so-small problem: only extreme candidates can get nominated.”
http://mishtalk.com/2015/12/02/triumph-of-trumpism-and-lepenism-waiting-for-a-volunteer-mouse/
“I support Trump and I said why.” – well, if the above is your “clear” statement that Trump is your guy, then consider that a great many of your readers may not have taken it so.
If you really are a Libertarian, then support them – they have an active Party.
Consider this…looking beyond this coming term, who seems more likely to expand Presidential powers (bypassing the checks and balance of Congress)?
Seems to me that Trump doesn’t feel beholding to the Constitution, nor the proper role of Congress, and gives every indication that he would eagerly run past where Obama left off (who pushed the boundaries beyond where GWB left it).
So, you MAY buy some time on your ONE issue of warmongering (Trump is highly unpredictable, so can one honestly say he is likely to be better?), but then erode the structure that is meant to keep a President from too hastily going to war (such as it is today).
Trump’s statements and demeanor are far from confidence inspiring for anyone wanting to prevent a warmonger from office. I honestly cannot see, from his campaign and statements, where he is actually superior to anyone else on this issue. If anything, it looks like he will do more to make it easier for some future warmonger President, and antagonize or bully other nations – the stuff that makes war more likely.
But, who knows, MAYBE his extreme statements and positions are just “opening bids” in some grand “negotiation” of the issues, if we are to believe his supporters.
Should we bet the country on it?
No illusions here regarding the other candidates, but certainly don’t see how Trump is the better alternative in the long run on this particular issue.
“I am keeping my fingers crossed and hoping Cruz can mount a challenge to Trump.”
Yeah, more bought and paid for establishment RINOs “approved” by one of the two party machine establishments DESIGNED to produce an infinite series of corrupt status quo maintainers.
If you manage to nominate one, kiss the largest voting block goodbye, the 43% of registered voters who are so fed up with YOUR favorites that we’ve registered as independents. We’ll only come out to vote for anyone who looks like they might actually shake things up.
Then, when nothing changes for the better if your favorite RINO is, by some miracle, elected in November or, more likely, when Felonious moves into the WH in January and you want to blame someone, LOOK IN A MIRROR.
I’ve never heard Cruz described as a RINO before. Even Bob Dole said he prefers Trump to Cruz.
Both parties are members of the same elitist club. They have been able to avoid the things which have activated so many of us for Trump and Sanders…
• Jobs lost to foreign workers both here and elsewhere
• Obamacare
…to name just two of many things which congress has passed or promoted.
I have been fascinated watching the party panic and viciousness in this campaign marathon, but unimpressed by anyone in either party.
The debates are just a media-fed event. A lot like the Andy Hardy, Rooney and Garland, “Let’s put on a show,” solution to whatever.
I have been reading “One Minute To Midnight”, the story of the Cuban Missile Crisis and dreading any such event with one of the current crop as Commander in Chief. (Hope we make it through Obama’s last days.)
I may write in Ross Perot, the last one I voted FOR rather than against the lessor of the poor choices. The only thing Perot got wrong was the sound effect. Instead of “Giant Sucking Sound” of jobs leaving us, we got a 25-year slow hiss.
Warmonger.
Cruz and Rubio make me want to throw up. Hilary makes me want to throw up too. Bernie doesn’t make me want to throw up it’s just that he’s not electable and even if he was he’d never get anything accomplished as president nyway. Trump gives me pause until I realize that if he tried to do anything unconstitutional he would be impeached, but he doesn’t make me want to throw up. Politics is poor theater, but at least Trump has a sliver of pragmatism and authenticity, and if presented with a sane and workable monetary solution might go for it. No one else has the smarts, the ability to thing outside of the box or the balls to do that.
Cruz wants to audit the Fed. Alan Dershowitz, no friend of Republicans, said Cruz was one of the smartest law students he ever taught. Not sure I feel good about voting for someone who changes his mind every day on the argument that we can impeach him if he screws up.
Cruz is an incredible religious opportunist and fanatic, and he couldn’t possibly think an unorthodox religious, economic or monetary thought. Believe me I know the type. That plus Hilary would beat him like an unwanted step child. He’s a loser even more than Romney was, especially if he gets the nomination by robbing Trump who is much more deserving and at least entertained.
Cruz won’t be auditing the Fed since his wife made a living from there. He will be done away with if he even tries. Anyone expecting massive change from any of the candidates is sure to be disappointed. The inmates control the asylum in government just like a prison. The face of the operation is just for bread and circuses.
“Today’s results won’t mean in the grand scheme of things unless Rubio does so poorly that he decides to step aside.”
Rubio appears to have done very poorly. Winning nothing nor even second and coming in 4th place behind Kasich in Maine. He has been the neocons’ dream candidate which makes his loss a savory delight.
Cruz has distanced himself from the neocons.
“Cruz has distanced himself from the neocons.”
Pffft! Right, and GWB promised a kinder, gentler America.
“Cruz has distanced himself from the neocons. ”
Do the neocons know that?
LOL
Cruz is the biggest neocon of all. Hillary #2
The issue is long standing. From Reagan to now the Republican Party has betrayed their conservative base. Betrayed on immigration, border security, lower taxes, smaller government, less regulation, trade, jobs, torture, habeas corpus, search and seizure, local control of education, personal responsibility, right to inherit… Trump promises progress on these issues or tear down the walls of the Temple trying.
George W. Bush was a dope who did great damage to the Republican party and the country. That said, I am not sure what all those whining about the “establishment” want the GOP in Congress to do. When they shut the government down the public sided with the Democrats. They cannot pass a law over Obama’s veto. The gripe seems to be with James Madison and his separation of powers idea.
The Republican electorate gave the Republican Party the large majority in the House and the majority in the Senate. In return the GOP Congress passed the Omnibus Spending Bill, increased the debt ceiling, approved Obama’s budget and appointed liberal Paul Ryan to the influential House speaker position after Boehner screwed us for 6 long years.
If you folks can’t understand why there’s backlash against the GOP and Trump is leading in the primaries – you aren’t paying attention.
Cruz is a sitting senator and is guilty by association.
Trump has never held an elected office and gets the benefit of the doubt.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/us-cuba-welfare-benefits/
http://interactive.sun-sentinel.com/cuban-adjustment-act/index.html
About the following, ditto:
‘Not even my wife knows’: secret Donald Trump voters speak out
We asked Guardian readers who are voting for Trump why they support him. From firm conservatives to fed-up liberals, their answers were revealing
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/03/secret-donald-trump-voters-speak-out
Thanks for posting. I am surprised so many vote for Trump while disagreeing with him on many issues. They seem to want to make a statement. I just don’t vote that way. Mussolini made a statement, too.
It would be enough to do one thing well. Republicans have nothing to show for sixty years.
I think many citizens agree with trump but have been cowered into political correctness through a variety of mechanisms in society over the last 30 years. The silent majority is now rising again. This includes immigrants who came here legally, independents and Reagan democrats.
Reasons I could not vote for Cruz:
1. He’s married to a Goldman Sachs banker.
2. He lied about Carson suspending his campaign to win Iowa.
3. He supported allowing legalization for illegals currently living in the country.
4. There’s a cloud over his citizenship status since he was born in Canada in 1970 and became a Canadian citizen when US-Canadian dual-citizenship was forbidden under Canadian law.
Any of those reasons would independently make me question Cruz’ suitability to move into the White House. Combined, there is no room for doubt.
You forgot the worst quality about him. He thinks he is right all the time and the smartest guy in the room. Not to mention he thinks righteousness and being conservative are more important than finding practical solutions to problems. It ceases to amaze me how the Republican party touts business and market based economics and when the first non politician businessman comes closer to the nomination than anyone they would choose a lawyer instead. If Trump doesn’t win the nomination I would suspect voter fraud by Cruz and the Republican party. The largest states which favor Trump are all coming up soon and he should win these outright given the outrage.
And Trump doesn’t always proclaim himself to be the smartest guy everywhere?
None of our career politicians do squat for us but pander. Hillary is a criminal and should be indicted and will take to more war, Bernie wants a 15 trillion dollar tax increase (more then the total private output in the USA), Cruz is pandering to the religious right and cannot deliver on any of those promises and anyone with a brain knows this, Rubio will take us to more war and has never worked outside the beltway all his adult life and that leaves Trump who is a rich billionaire who never worked in the government but you can bet he was on the inside. I like Trump at least he is not worked in the government all his life.
I think people are fed up with many of these nut cases. Women basically will vote for Hillary as this is historical for them. Boy are they that stupid? Sure!!!
I just like to watch the show this election cycle is too funny watching everyone attack Trump. The establishment is scared to death of Trump. The Republican party is imploding and the Democrats are doing their best to install the anointed one Hillary! Voters like Hillary less then they do the IRS!
1.Women basically will vote for Hillary as this is historical for them.
2. Voters like Hillary less then they do the IRS.
Which is it?
No, sir. Voters do not hate Hillary all that much. Sanders would be getting way more primary votes if it were so.
Women voters are in play, even for the chauvinistic Trump. Women are fed up with government, too.
Besides, we all secretly wish for the alluring Melania to be our next First Lady.
I have been fascinated by the party panic and viciousness. Both parties are members of an elite club and have been able to avoid things which have activated Trump and Sanders.
• Job loss to foreign workers both here and overseas.
• Obamacare
The debates are nothing more than media events similar to the 1930s Andy Hardy movies with “Let’s put on a show,” solutions to whatever crisis.
I may just write in Ross Perot—the last guy I voted FOR, instead of against with the bunch of poor choices available. All he got wrong was the sound effect… instead of a “Giant Sucking Sound… we got 25 years of a slow hiss.
Obamacare passed Congress without a single Republican vote.
Cruz can’t win the general. He is a religious kook or pretending to be one. He is also bought by Goldman(via his skank wife) so he is basically a NeoCon looking for ways to globalize war and profits.
Hillary would have to really blow this one…more than Monica blew
Once Trump adds Ben Carson to his ticket as VP, we will have two outsiders running as a team and the establishment will really have some work on their hands to trash them.
Cruz punched Carson below the belt in Iowa. It will be Carson who delivers the knockout punch to the 2016 Cruz campaign.
Trump has said his choice of a VP would be an insider.
You guys are all for change when it comes to politics, but all for orthodox sameness so far as economic ideas are concerned. Politics without a genuinely new idea (not just a false reactionary lurch in the “opposite” direction) little to nothing will change even if Trump wins. You change the world with NEW ideas, INTEGRATIVE ideas (like work AND leisure, like Debt AND Gifting, like freedom AND service to the nation, like aligning philosophy AND policy instead of having only work as an ethic when technology and AI are trying to enable us to have a lot more leisure and also work) Try thinking a new thought instead of just the same old reactionary, orthodox, habitual and actually UNthinking regurgitation of old ideas.
I thought I’d check a hunch and came up with this:
States with open presidential primaries (indies can vote)
Alabama – Trump
Arkansas – Trump
Georgia – Trump
Illinois – TBD
Indiana – TBD
Massachusetts – Trump
Michigan – TBD
Minnesota – Rubio
Mississippi – TBD
Missouri – TBD
New Hampshire – Trump
North Carolina – TBD
North Dakota – TBD
Ohio – TBD
Oklahoma (open for Democrats only) – Sanders
South Carolina – Trump
Tennessee – Trump
Texas – Cruz (Trump #2)
Vermont – Trump
Virginia – Trump
Wisconsin – TBD
Want votes from the largest voter block, 43% of all registered voters, indies? Nominate Trump. Otherwise, look in the mirror when Felonious moves into the WH next January because when Trump runs as an indie, we will vote for him.
And, BTW, just this ONE plan of Trumps should be the reason EVERYONE votes for him.
Do a Google search for “Trump’s Medical Plan, By The Numbers – The Market Ticker” and see his plan to reduce medical costs by 80% with no negative impact on quality simply by introducing competition in the rigged game allowed and preferential treatment given by the bought and paid for party machine approved candidates. That cost reduction alone would drastically lower medicare and medicaid payments which constitute a large percentage of the federal budget.
Military programs: $563 billion or 15%
Social Security Old Age: $741 billion or 20%
Social Security Disability: $146 billion or 4%
Medicare and Medicaid: $1,297 billion or 35%
And Trump could fix things simply by ENFORCING EXISTING LAWS. From the end of that Market Ticker article:
“The executive is empowered to enforce existing laws without any act of Congress whatsoever.
In fact, barring passing a new law there is absolutely nothing Congress — or the lobbyists — can do to stop him or any other President from doing so.
The reason none of the recent Presidents have done so ought to be obvious; they, along with Congress, have all been bought and paid for.”
Pure fantasy. If it were so easy it would have been done long ago.
You think the people are mad now?
Wait until you see who’s getting presidential pardons from Obama on his way out of office.
Army Maj. Nidal “Workplace Violence” Hassan raising a middle finger to US voters as his fellow jihadists push his wheelchair past a throng of hapless mainstream media witnessing his release from Leavenworth, per order of the Commander-in-Chief.
Nothing, absolutely nothing at all, should shock you anymore.
Trump has shown he will go mano a mano with anyone. He won’t back down and in fact will double down back at them. Can’t build a wall? I’ll build it twice as tall and get them to pay for it, to boot. That can do spirit is what built America, and won world War Two.
The last two primary days, Trump, instead of simply making a speech, allowed questions from the press. What i saw last night was Trump being Presidential. In a calm, measured tone, he made some salient points directed to the republican party. Most importantly, that the next President will pick 3 to 5 Supreme Court justices and if it is the democrat, they wind up with something akin to European social democracy.
There are only two republicans left, Trump and Cruz. Last night Trump demonstrated he is not a loose cannon, lacking any self control. There is a Presidential side to his demeanor.
Trump is the man who should be the republican nominee and the republican establishment should stop fighting him, for the good of the country.
Cruz won Maine handily but picked up 12 delegates to Trumps 9. So not much of a gain.
The big states are coming Trump will do better.
“Little Marco” is finished.
Whatever you can say about the candidates, it’s great spectacle and entertainment.