When you make a bargain with the devil or a dictator, and they did not get everything they wanted in round one of bargaining, it’s a certainty round two is coming up.
So here we are, with German chancellor Angela Merkel ready and willing to offer more concessions to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in order to slow the refugee migration into the Eurozone.
Merkel’s latest concessions come despite the fact that Erdogan is now the de-facto dictator of Turkey, having just taken over Turkey’s largest newspaper with a violent teargas raid by riot police.
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Violent Teargas Raid
Let’s start with a look at dictator Erdogan’s newspaper takeover. Then we will investigate how Merkel is willing to brush such events under the rug with still more concessions to a person who obviously cannot be trusted.
The LA Times reports Riot Police Raid Turkey’s Largest Newspaper with Volleys of Teargas and Water Cannons.
Law enforcement raid on a prominent media company and takeover of the nation’s largest-circulation newspaper have raised new fears of a press under assault by the administration of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Police late Friday forced their way into the offices of Zaman newspaper and its English-language sister publication, Today’s Zaman, after an Istanbul court ordered the seizure of Feza Media Group, which owns the two dailies.
Police in riot gear peppered protesters and staff alike with volleys of tear gas and water cannons, a scene broadcast live on satellite television.
Zaman has a daily circulation of more than 600,000, the largest in Turkey.
Amnesty International described Friday’s actions as “deeply troubling.” “By lashing out and seeking to rein in critical voices, President Erdogan’s government is steam rolling over human rights,” Amnesty International’s Turkey expert, Andrew Gardner, said in a statement.
The shutdown also drew an unusually forceful rebuke from the U.S. State Department, which is generally hesitant to criticize Turkey, a NATO ally. At a regular news briefing Friday, a State Department spokesman, John Kirby, said the raid was “the latest in a series of troubling judicial and law enforcement actions” and was not “in keeping” with Turkey’s constitution.
In October, days before the country’s general election, Turkish authorities ordered the seizure of Koza Ipek Group, which ran several prominent television stations critical of the government.
Prosecutors have opened at least 1,845 cases of “insulting the president” since Erdogan rose to the presidency in August 2014 with 52% of the vote.
Among those who have been charged are celebrities, a former Miss Turkey beauty queen and children who tore down a poster depicting Erdogan.
In May last year, Cumhuriyet published a sensational report that allegedly showed trucks, halted by police in southeastern Hatay province, belonging to Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency, stacked full of ammunition destined for insurgents in neighboring Syria.
The two journalists were arrested and sent to prison to await trial. After 92 days, Turkey’s Constitutional Court last week ordered their release on grounds that their personal rights had been violated.
The Turkish president fumed at the court decision, publicly refusing to “respect or obey” it.
Devil Makes More Demands
Despite Friday’s newspaper takeover by Erdogan, Merkel flew to Turkey over the weekend.
She is prepared to offer the devil more goodies if the devil would cover up her inane decision to welcome millions of refugees with open arms.
When dealing with the devil, it should be no surprise to discover Last-Minute Demands Suddenly Got Bigger.
Turkey has made a host of last-minute funding and political demands that threaten to derail a controversial EU-Turkey deal to dramatically reduce migrant flows to Europe.
Ahead of crunch summit between EU leaders and the Turkish prime minister on Monday, Ankara has called for a an increase to the €3bn in aid previously promised by Brussels, faster access to Schengen visas for Turkish citizens and accelerated progress in its EU membership bid.
Deal Demands
- Visa privileges to Turkish citizens.
- Increase in the EU’s proposed €3bn in funding, so that it covers municipal infrastructure costs as well as health, education and material support for Syrian refugees in Turkey.
- Turkey wants to speed up the already fast-tracked process of opening several new chapters in its EU membership bid. Cyprus is loath to make further concessions to Ankara in membership talks.
Merkel’s Plans Flop Like Fish Out of Water
Ms Merkel, who has been the most vocal proponent of this plan, held late-night talks with the Turkish prime minister in Brussels on Sunday night. Despite pressure from Berlin, other member states have been unwilling to back such a scheme.
Although Brussels has come up with a range of policies aimed at controlling the flow — from relocating refugees across Europe to introducing a European border guard and sending aid to Greece — most of these have either flopped or not yet been implemented.
Speaking before the meeting, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras said: “There have been agreements that were not implemented by everyone. This cannot be the case. There are either agreements that we implement or no agreements at all. Everyone needs to implement common decisions.”
Agreements? What Agreements?
When Chancellor Merkel tells countries what they need to do, and they refuse, does that constitute an agreement? Do Merkel’s idiotic plans constitute an agreement?
In Bed with the Devil
That Merkel is prepared to deal with Erdogan despite the fact he is now a de-facto dictator speaks volumes about her willingness to sleep with the devil for purposes of short-term political expediency.
Turkey’s Demographics
Turkey’s demands on Merkel include visa rights and speeding up of Turkey’s admission into EU. Let’s take a look at the demographics involved.
- Population: 79.316 Million (Source: WorldOmeters)
- Median Age: 30.2 Years (Source: WorldOmeters)
- Religion: 99.8% Muslim officially (Wikipedia estimates 90% to 96.4%)
- There are more than 2.7 million registered Syrian refugees in Turkey, according to UNHCR estimates. On average, 2,500 people cross the Aegean to Greece every day. (Source: Turkey Summit Overshadowed by Newspaper Crackdown).
- Youth Unemployment: 19.1% (Source: Trading Economics).
Since the chancellor in unable or unwilling to do the math estimates on those demographic stats, I put five key ideas together for her.
Five Refugee Math Considerations for Merkel
- Turkey has 2.7 million Syrian refugees who want to make to Germany for free handouts.
- The EU is already choking on migrants.
- There are another 79+ million Turkish citizens, many of whom just might be fed up enough with the dictatorship of Erdogan to flee, if they only had a Visa or EU membership.
- The median age in Turkey is 30.2 and the youth unemployment rate is 19.1%. A huge chunk of the millennials will want to leave for sure.
- Even if a mere 5% of Turkish citizens want to flee, that’s another 4 million or so refugees pouring into Europe.
Leaders vs. Bullies
As my friend says, “Leaders lead; that’s what they do.” However, leaders also learn when to admit they have made a mistake. Chancellor Merkel, like Hillary Clinton, never learned how to do that.
With her handling of this crisis, Merkel has morphed into nothing more than a playground bully. It’s high time someone stood up to the biggest bully in Europe, and they just did: Austria and Nine Balkan Countries Effectively Tell Merkel Go to Hell.
However, political bullies seldom give up so easily. There’s a good likelihood Merkel can bully her way to an agreement with the devil.
If she gets her way, the other countries will regret their decision when a massive wave of Turkish migrants floods the Eurozone in search of free handouts.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“The key elements of that draft statement, seen by Reuters are:
Turkey to readmit all “irregular”migrants crossing into Greek islands from Turkey;
For every Syrian readmitted by Turkey from the Greek islands, one Syrian refugee will be resettled from Turkey to the EU member states;
The EU will completely evacuate refugees from the Greek islands, readmitting only those who crossed into the islands after a date to be determined;
The EU will accelerate the lifting of visa requirements for Turkish citizens in the Schengen zone, so that this takes place, at the latest, by the end of June 2016;
The EU and Turkey will cooperate in any joint endeavours to establish humanitarian safe areas inside Syria;
The EU will provide Turkey with an extra 3bn Euros (on top of the 3bn Euros already made available) to help Turkey deal with Syrian refugees through to the end of 2018.
According to Reuters, the statement also makes reference to steps in the process of negotiating Turkish accession to the European Union.”
The Guardian.
………
So all Syrians admitted (as good as) and presumably there will now be leverage on EU counries to implement distribution.
Visa free travel for Turks.
Return of non-Syrians is still subject to EU jurisprudence, which states all (ALL) asylum seekers must be given due process, and may not be returned forcibly to a country which may prove unsafe for them ( in the case of Turkey there are various groups of migrants who may claim this).
No visas means travel on false passports may become routine.
……….
The UN should be setting up and monitoring refugee camps in Turkey, laws on admission and process of migrants into EU should be suspended, the creation of UN safe zones/ refugee camps in Turkey compensating that.
Give Turkey 3 bn for right to manage this on its territory-to shut up.
Everyone comes out as ‘doing the right thing’ in response to the events in Syria.
………
What gives?
Have just reflected over the proposal to return Syrian migrants who make illegal entry and accept others in return on a par for par basis . This is what jumps out :
From a layman perspective all that this seems to add up to is that illegal migrants get denied access by being returned , but as a concession to Turkey and in the name of fairness to refugees , a similar number will be accepted and ‘distributed’ via legal channels of entry . The latter part is hoped to be offset by the fact that fewer refugees will try illegal entry knowing they will be returned , but is in itself a priori an offer to take in more refugees and settle them.
Now let us look at this from legal perspective , a human rights perspective , and I think you should be disgusted by EU leaders after considering this , as they appear to be no more than traffickers :
European leaders declare that they wish to take one group of asylum seekers (who have braved themselves to try to reach EU) and return them to their country of departure forcibly and without process , presumably (logically) denying them future entry . They then wish , for having done that , to accept a similar number of volunteer asylum seekers to be distributed throughout EU . They have made themselves arbiters of the law , of people’s lives , in one simple statement they have shown that they are completely disconnected from any concept of justice and due process .
Even the harsh outline of an idea I presented as a solution is fairer and kinder than what they are proposing as it insists on an international oversight on the safety and well-being of the refugees .
I hope that any reader of this that has the opportunity , that he (or she) passes on this view of the corrupt and prevaricative reality that emanates from the presence of the European so called elite .
Any one with a basic legal knowledge will understand that the solution suggested by EU is contemptible and arrogant of all the multi generational refinements of law aimed at safeguarding basic human rights . These laws do not treat Syrians differently from Europeans , and that is to say , if European leaders trample on basic Syrian human rights or use them to a purpose , they will just as easily trample on their own nationals . It would not surprise me if they attempted that while blaming Syrians , either .
A clear and purposeful breach has taken place of procedure and protocol – call it out.
They have gone too far, and being surrounded by lawyers , surely know it , and even that is assuming they initially lack moral , which is very likely.
I disagree Crys,
They have to manage the EU immigrants as the word has gotten out on social media about welfare for nothing and free housing coupled with family reunification. Quite frankly I would not take any of the immigrants and this flow to the EU would stop if they got turned around and sent home. Greece under this new administration cries, pisses, and moans about this crisis and this administration started it all. The allowed illegal into their country to funnel them into Northern Europe and now cry they need more money to handle the immigrants. Tsipiras basically opened his borders and wonders why he has a problem. He created the problem.
The wars in the Middle East as most here know has gone on for decades, so why now? Sometimes we need to look for the simple answers and no it was not the EU or USA creating this problem, although all the players contributed to the problem, Greece simply opened its borders hoping to garner more bailout money by creating this problem. Erdogan is happy to get rid of all of these unwanted people. Many forget though many are coming from countries like Africa because of the new welfare programs Merkel started and most likely now regrets.
The extreme northern European countries really do not care as most immigrants that end up there leave as it is too cold for them. Something you do not see in the media but must have friends in said countries. Five years ago most political leaders openly discussed how multi-culturalism did not work and now want citizens to accept people that will never integrate into the EU as friends.
Turkey is a SAFE country that has 2,7 million Syrian refugees already so every syrian reaching Greece should also be returned to Turkey.
Geneva convention states that people can’t be returned to borders where they are persecuted or in danger so everyone can be returned to Turkey since it is SAFE and has taken care of 2,7 million people about as good as can be expected even organising some schooling in addition to free tents, free food and free water.
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The european interpretation about Geveva convention has become really lax and soft over the years and has been taken to mean that nobody can be returned away from europe which is a faulty interpretation.
If somebody claims that all people coming from Turkey to Greece should be allowed to seek Asylum in Greece since returns to Turkey breach their human rights then based on same kind of faulty logic Dublin-treaty and returning asylum seekers to the first EU-country where they registered or the first EU-country where they entered EU also breaches their human rights.
It is NOT a human right to asylum-shop for that country which gives free apartments and most free money and easiest family re-unification on welfare and whose bureaucrats are most lax and incompetent and believe every story told to them.
Merkel is totally irresponsible and acting stupidly again. Asking Turkey to halt the tide of asylum seekers is useless until Macedonian border is SHUT completely (Merkel is against this) and Bulgaria and Albania also keep their borders with Greece SHUT and EU cancels EU-burden sharing where asylum seekers were planned to be spread from Greece and Italy to around Europe and EU cancels EU-hotspots in Greece where asylum applications were supposed to be processed and then after most had been accepted the accepted ones spread around EU.
As long as there is a way through Greece to the welfare paying Europe which starts from Austria and goes northwards people will keep coming.
When there is absoluteluy NO way to reach welfare paying europe through Greece (NOT by walking, NOT by Burden sharing and NOT by hotspots) the rush towards Greece will STOP because Greece offers NOTHING but a peaceful country and permit to stay but the people coming to Greece are NOT interested in that because in Greece the only way to live is work hard whereas in welfare paying europe accepted asylum seekers get free apartment, free money and family re-unification straight to welfare.
When it comes to returning failed asylum seekers or criminals who do not want to leave away from Europe or Greece to their countries of origin this can be completed easily by EU if EU says “if you don’t take back all your citizens from all EU countries then all EU countries will stop paying development aid for you”..
Merkel is completely incapable of admitting her huge mistakes.
Visa freedom for Turkey would be a nightmare. If Erdogan starts feuding with the turkish kurds again EU could wake up one day to notice that 20 million turkish kurds had decided to move to EU.
Turkey has huge youth employment already and thanks to demographics that youth unemployment will get even larger shortly so the conservative estimate is that 10 million turkish turks or turkish kurds would move to EU countries within 10 years.
And as said if Erdogan and kurds start feuding again there could be 20 million kurds in EU countries in a short time.
Visa freedom is a bad idea and letting Turkey have all aces by Merkel’s own stubborness that borders must be open between Greece and it’s neighbors is really stupid way to act.
The end game is perhaps to bring in Turkey and the entire Arabian Peninsula to the EU. The European Arabian Union would finally have energy resources, financial resources, technology and human resources to create a Multicultural Dystopia.
This will be the first Arab democracy.
Maybe Turkey should ask Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, etc for aid to help their fellow Moslems. Of course we all know what their answer will be
Merkel should tell Turkey to ask Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, etc for humanitarian aid. Muslims helping Muslims, like the Koran says. I am sure all those country, and more, will open their wallets and give generously.
When pigs fly.
Brexit
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How can Merkel make these UNILATERAL agreements that involve the entire EU … ????