Those expecting the US consumer to carry the global economy may have to think twice.
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus for month-over-month credit growth was $16.5 billion but the actual report for January credit came it at $10.5 billion.
The more important news is December consumer credit was revised lower from a reported $21.3 billion increase to a mere $6.4 billion increase.
From Econoday …
Highlights
Breaks in the consumer credit series, due to changes in source data or methodology, are not uncommon, leading to sudden swings such as in mid-2011. Such a break is responsible for a big revision to December, now at a revised increase of $6.4 billion from an initial $21.3 billion. The revision is centered in the non-revolving component, which tracks vehicle financing and student loans and is now at a very slight increase of $0.9 billion vs an initial gain of $15.4 billion. January’s increase in total outstanding consumer credit is an initial $10.5 billion vs Econoday’s consensus for $16.5 billion. Revolving credit, the component that tracks credit cards, fell $1.1 billion in January following December’s nearly unrevised $5.5 billion increase. Even with January’s dip, revolving credit has been showing strength and has been, in a positive for consumer spending, hinting at greater willingness, if not the necessity, of the consumer to take on credit-card debt.
Recent History
Consumer credit is expected to rise $16.5 billion in January following a $21.3 billion gain in December that included a second straight strong showing for revolving credit, one that hints at greater consumer willingness to take on credit-card debt. Nonrevolving credit, boosted by vehicle sales and also by student loans, is the stronger of the two components.
Consumer Credit
There’s yet another chart with weakness starting in the mid-2014 taimeframe.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
with the magnitude of this revision why does anyone pay attention to these numbers?
The China “miracle” continues ….
“China’s exports fell 25.4 percent on-year in February, while imports declined 13.8 percent, clocking far bigger slides than expected by analysts.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 12.5 percent drop in February exports, and a 10.0 percent drop in imports, after China’s exports fell 11.2 percent in January from a year earlier and imports slid 18.8 percent.
According to Reuters, the on-year decline in exports in February was the steepest since May 2009”
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/07/china-releases-trade-data-for-february-yuan-denominated-and-us-dollar-imports-and-exports.html
The counter-revolution will NOT be televised.
How is the US consumer doing?
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of the weekly retail sales report released by Johnson Redbook Tuesday, for the fourth week of the February retail period through March 5:
The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index was up 0.7% in the first week of March. Month-to-date, March was up 0.7% compared to March of last year (relative to a target of a 1.1% gain). Month-over-month showed a 2.9% gain versus February (relative to a target of a 3.3% gain). March is a five-week month on the retail calendar, ending on April 2nd.
https://mninews.marketnews.com/content/us-redbook-retailers-still-hoping-easter-pickup-text
so how do we have a 25% decline in Chinese exports and still have a retail sales increase in America. It must have been them damned Martians again cutting back on their imports!