The GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Model remains at 2.2% following today’s wholesale inventories report.

Latest forecast: 2.2 percent — March 9, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 2.2 percent on March 9, unchanged from March 4. The forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from -0.28 percentage points to -0.33 percentage points after this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. This update also incorporates data on imports and exports of services in January from last Friday’s international trade report not included in the previous GDPNow update. This caused the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth to increase from -0.35 percentage points to -0.31 percentage points.

GDPNow Evolution

GDPnow 2016-03-09

For my take on today’s wholesale inventories report, please see Investigating Bloomberg’s Claim “Wholesale Inventory Liquidation has been a Success”

Mike “Mish” Shedlock