The GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Model remains at 2.2% following today’s wholesale inventories report.
Latest forecast: 2.2 percent — March 9, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 2.2 percent on March 9, unchanged from March 4. The forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from -0.28 percentage points to -0.33 percentage points after this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. This update also incorporates data on imports and exports of services in January from last Friday’s international trade report not included in the previous GDPNow update. This caused the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth to increase from -0.35 percentage points to -0.31 percentage points.
Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
If true inflation is factored in, GDP has been negative for the majority of the last decade.
Old Guy said:
Subtract government spending Andy and the GDP goes negative.
The Federal Reserve is not a science/truth based organization. The Federal Reserve is a cheerleader propaganda maven. Data distortions and lies are part of the mission statement. At the Federal Reserve we blow bubbles and snicker.