In the wake of an allegedly “respectable” retail sales report for February, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model dipped to an estimated 1.9% growth for first quarter of 2016 from 2.2% on March 9.

Latest forecast: 1.9 percent — March 15, 2016

“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.9 percent on March 15, down from 2.2 percent on March 9. The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 3.3 percent to 2.7 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.”

GDPnow 2016-03-15

For my take on the allegedly “respectable” February retail sales report, please see Retail Sales Down, January Sales Revised to -0.4%.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock