Nate Silver has some interesting Delegate Count Analysis regarding the number of delegates each candidate needs to win tonight to stay on the path for the nomination.
Silver did not say so directly, but odds for anyone but Trump hitting their count are ridiculous. With that in mind, let’s just spotlight Trump’s “Magic Numbers”, from the perspective of what Silver thinks Trump needs to do.
Currently, Silver has Trump ahead of where he needs to be heading into today’s primaries. Can Trump hold his lead?
Trump’s Nomination Path
Delegates In Play Tonight
Tuesday Scorecard
Note that Silver has all of the candidates needing Florida. That cannot happen. Trump is the overwhelming (99%) favorite to win that state.
Mish Projections
I expect Kasich will win Ohio. That’s a winner-take-all state.
Illinois has 69 delegates. The winner gets 15. I project Trump will get 21 of the remaining 54 delegates (39%). That is how I derived 36.
North Carolina is proportional. That’s unfortunate from the perspective of Donald Trump. I expect Trump will win 42% of the vote and delegates. This would give Trump another 30.
There is little polling data for Missouri. Cruz might do very well. Going out on a limb, I give Trump 35% of the vote. Assuming that is enough for first place, that will be good for 12 delegates. 35% of the remaining 40 is 14. I doubt Trump does much better than 26. Cruz could win the state.
Further Analysis
I do not believe Trump needs to win Ohio, but if he does, it’s all over. The remaining states are more favorable to Trump, but he will have to dominate if he does lose Ohio.
That said, things change if Rubio and Kasich drop out, likely even to Trump’s benefit. Another possibility is Rubio alone drops out and supports Kasich. That scenario would be to the clear advantage of Trump.
I do not believe Silver’s math properly takes into consideration the dropout possibilities.
Addendum
Here is a Comment from Silver explaining Illinois and Missouri. Both states are more Winner-Take-All than I thought.
Unlike what you may have heard, Missouri and Illinois are not proportional states. They are basically winner take all, some by congressional district and some by the statewide vote. If one candidate wins one of the states by a wide margin, he is likely to come close to taking all the delegates. That’s what happened in South Carolina, when Trump won all the delegates with just 33 percent of the vote. If Trump ends up winning both states by more than 5 percentage points, despite losing Ohio, he’ll have had a strong night. Indeed, more delegates are at stake in Illinois (69) than in Ohio (66), and Illinois and Missouri , together (121), have more than Florida (99).
Some complex rules are in play. In Illinois, these rules favor Trump. In Missouri, I have no idea who they favor.
Also note Projections Show Trump has already Won the Northern Marianas 9 delegates.
There are no polls. This was unexpected pot luck. Expectations were mainstream candidates would win.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Didn’t one of the “Rules Committee” guys for the Republican Convention just come out and say that “further interpretation” of the voting rules doesn’t require that delegates vote on the first ballot according to their state’s primary result?
Yep I just read that as well ….if they steal this from Trump ,there will be hell to pay .
In the Democrat’s primaries, only about 30% of the delegates are committed to one contestant oops I mean candidate. The rest are uncommitted “super-delegates”. One man – one vote if you vote in the primary? Forget about it.
I’m the left and yes that’s what both parties control by the elite say. Welcome to the new Amerika
Its pretty amazing to me that the RNC is spending money contributed to it by REPUBLICANS, to defeat a REPUBLICAN candidate. While i understand that this is a contest and there are many differing interests within it, it seems completely corrupt for` the RNC itself to be spending money to defeat one of its own. We have seen occurrences in the past where they failed to support conservatives in races against democrats, but to attack a republican in a primary seems too blatant. They are so blinded by their own agenda I don’t think they realize the damage they are doing to the party. They are firing off rounds in a pressurized cockpit because they don’t approve of the pilot and his potential direction.
Conservatives have learned to deal with what we got rather than what we thought we voted for in many Republicans for many years. It would serve the RNCe to show a little humility in this case and do what they constantly tell us to do…give them the benefit of the doubt and just wait and hope till next time.
The Party Bosses sabotaging their own strongest candidate could have serious unintended consequences, by getting even more people PO’ed at the GOP and voting for the guy who will shake it up.
Indeed. This a truly rare opportunity to drive a wooden stake through vampire-heart of the republican establishment – drive them off to the democrat caucus where they belong. Good riddance.
Sadly the RNCe has surrendered to exactly what they always CLAIMED they were fighting. They always claimed to represent the wishes of the conservative citizens of this country who wanted smaller government and less centralized power. Now they have embraced the power they currently hold to retain power…for the sake of power, rather than to trust the will of the people they claim to represent. They have adopted the liberal platform in total by simply implying that the people they claim to support are too ignorant to make the proper decisions for themselves. The Republicans now ARE the same social justice rendering Big Government we conservatives have always resisted and FEARED. Fear may be an emotional word, but the reason we have resisted this juggernaut of unstoppable power is demonstrated in this simple action. THEY will NOT be DETERRED. And considering that their predominant claim is concern over Trumps electability, while continuing to trash him, and commenting that they would consider a third party vote…or even Hillary, shows me all I need to see. This is about THEIR power.
I have commented in the past about how I perceive the Republican party as NOT concerned about winning in any majority way, but simply winning to preserve their key positions…their power individually. Their actions have continually shown them complacent in bringing about any real fight over principles or even congressional actions. They controlled both houses of government as well as the presidency for six years…and did nothing on borders, immigration, tax law or much of anything else. They claimed they could not act without bipartisan support. I contend they do not want power that is directly associated with responsibility. They want to stomp their feet loudly, complaining about how our rights are being usurped, and demanding more money, more power so then and only then they can DO SOMETHING, only to find them setting on their hands again. Given the state of the world economy, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to learn that they don’t want the presidency, fearing they will take the blame for the collapse. All of this demonstrates a corruption of principles on top of everything else. Trump is no saint, no savior. He simply exposes them for what they are and as such, more and more republicans and semi-concious democrats will jump on his wagon.
In a failing economy the danger of Trump is that he will not hesitate to place blame. And there are MANY culprits. Democrats and Republicans continually beat each other about the head with accusations, but that is as far as it ever goes. Trump might actually attempt to hold them accountable….in prison.
Repubs can NOT afford to have The Donald win….if he does, game over. Forget the 60 years of cronyisms, back-slappin’ I got ur back Mitch-isms. The Donald brings a new style of sheriff to the neighborhood. He’ll fix the wall; and immigration; fix the nuke deal with Iran; the infamous treaty for export/imports; and he will fire a lot of needless central plannerss and Deep State leeches. Why do you suppose he wears a bullet proof vest? He may not be a panacea; but if we can right this sinking ship then we’d better put him in the drivers seat. And he’s the only one who can and will “make” the DOJ arrest and try Hit-Liar-y. She belongs in jail. Trump to the W H
Nothing to do with this posting or the election. Just wanted, very belatedly, to tell you what an improvement your new message posting system is over what you had before. Much more usable and user friendly. Thanks. Robert Bentley