Axel Merk, President & CIO, Merk Investments LLC, pinged me on March 16 with his thoughts regarding “Peak Dollar“.
He is not referring to the number of dollars, but rather, the intermediate-term value of the dollar compared to other currencies.
Merk’s comments are online at “Dollar Outlook: Peak Dollar?“. Let’s take a look.
In guest post format, with a few of my own comments interspersed, please consider these snips from …
Dollar Outlook: Peak Dollar by Axel Merk
Is the dollar’s seemingly relentless rise in recent years coming to an end? What are the implications not only for the greenback, but other currencies and markets around the world?
The chart below shows the U.S. dollar index over the past 40 years together with its longer term moving average, as well as 1 and 2 standard deviation bands. To some the chart may suggest that exchange rates are mean reverting; some will see a longer-term declining trend in the dollar; others will point to what may be considered an extreme valuation given that the dollar index has been around 2 standard deviations above its moving average. To us, the fact that the dollar has moved so far from its moving average, gives rise to the question whether the dollar rally may be over. Let’s consider some arguments for and against ‘peak dollar’:
U.S. Rate Hikes?
It’s widely anticipated that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. So why would the dollar not rise? It turns out that we have been told for years now that the Fed will ‘exit’ from its extraordinarily accommodative policy. In our analysis, the U.S. dollar historically appreciates in anticipation of a hiking cycle, but not necessarily as rates actually move higher.
Mish Comments: Steen Jakobsen, CIO of Saxo bank also recently commented along the lines of … by the time the Fed starts hiking, the dollar appreciation is over. In this case, it is debatable if the Fed hikes any more at all. I expected mid-last-year the US and global economies were weakening far more than most thought, especially the Fed. I wondered if the Fed would get in any hikes. They did get in one, with near-promises of four more. Now it’s two more. The dollar and gold both reacted as many of us thought.
What about rate differentials? The European Central Bank (ECB) just lowered rates again. While all else equal, a high interest rate differential may benefit the higher yielding currency, all else is rarely equal. Betting on such rate differentials is also referred to as a ‘carry trade’ strategy. In our analysis, carry trade strategies tend to perform well in ‘risk on’ environments, i.e. in environments when equities and other ‘risk assets’ do well. Let’s pause to reflect that the U.S. dollar historically is considered a ‘safe haven’ when there is a ‘flight to quality.’ Remember 2008, when the dollar was widely considered the ‘only safe place in town’? Well, the yen substantially outperformed the greenback that year, but, yes, the dollar – and notably U.S. Treasuries – were two of the few places where investors found refuge.
But we have observed that for some time now, the U.S. dollar has tended to follow dynamics more typically associated with a high yielding currency, that is to rally in conjunction with the equity markets. This is no accident, as, on a relative basis, the U.S. dollar, has indeed become a high yielding currency versus many of its peers. The flip side of that is that we have observed the dollar often declines when equity markets plunge. This suggests that investors might want to gain some non-dollar exposure as a way to diversify their portfolio. Except they might want to hold non-dollar cash rather than equities, as international equities may also suffer when U.S. equities are under pressure.
Rates Bottoming in Rest of the World?
We have heard many central bankers complain that their currencies are overvalued and that rates might go lower. But last week, ECB chief Mario Draghi released what we think was a bombshell. During the Q&A of last week’s press conference, he said: “From today’s perspective, and taking into account the support of our measures to growth and inflation, we don’t anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further.” (bolding added) No, he did not misspeak, as he mentioned a second time during the press conference that rates may not go down any further. There are a variety of reasons why he might indicate that rates have bottomed, including:
- Negative interest rates have been difficult to work with for some banks. Notably, Draghi pointed out that banks lose money on some loans linked to overnight lending rates that are negative. By signaling that rates may not go down any further, banks may not restrict lending based on a fear that they may face more losses as rates go deeper into negative territory.
- Draghi appears to have shifted towards a new regime in trying to jumpstart growth in the Eurozone, focusing on boosting bank profitability with another newly announced program (TLTRO II) that, in our analysis, could cut bank funding cost in half for all Eurozone banks. As such, he appears to acknowledge that weakening the euro has not been the panacea to fix the ills of the Eurozone.
- Data in the Eurozone haven’t been so bad. Indeed, listening to Draghi over the past 9 months, a lot of what he looks at looks pretty decent. In fact, just about all negatives he cited at his most recent press conference were risks outside of the Eurozone (global growth) or at least partially outside the control of the ECB (low energy prices).
The conclusion we draw from this is that the bottom of the interest rate cycle may well be in for the Eurozone. Take Draghi’s word for it, not ours. And we think his position creates a whole different dynamic for the U.S. dollar.
Mish Comments: I discussed limits on negative interest rate madness on March 13. My conclusion is that Draghi is in a bind, unable to lower rates further down the rabbit hole. My specific reason is there are millions of Euribor based mortgage loans in Spain, Italy, and Portugal. If Draghi lowered rates any more, banks will have to pay people for having a mortgage! For details, please see Is There a Limit to Draghi’s Negative Interest Rate Madness?
On a somewhat related note, we have been arguing for some time that interest rates in Sweden, for example, are way too low. The economy there has good growth and low unemployment; it’s just that inflation is rather low. In our view, the Swedish central bank (Risksbank) has been paranoid about ever more negative rates in the Eurozone; with that risk off the table, the Riksbank may soon be courageous enough to reverse course.
Swiss National Bank President Jordan has also come out saying that there’s a limit as to how far rates can go down.
If you see a trend above, these are all European currencies. In contrast, so-called commodity currencies (e.g. the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar) have not been at zero or in negative territory. The dynamics there have also not followed traditional patterns. Still, Mr. Poloz, the head of the Bank of Canada (BoC), last week stated that the BoC wants to see how fiscal policy plays out before deciding on whether to cut rates further. Canada is one of the few countries that appears to be getting a serious fiscal stimulus (Prime Minister Trudeau was quick to discard his election promise to only have minor deficits).
Australia is a bit of a special base, as central bank governor’s Glenn Stevens term is expiring later this year; if we understand Mr. Stevens correctly, he wants out as the governor that did not need to resort to extraordinary policies. Indeed, the Australian economy has rapidly been adjusting, with the weaker Australian dollar helping.
New Zealand, also considered a commodity country, in contrast, just lowered rates again, a reflection that the economy might have a more difficult time adjusting than Australia’s.
All that said, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s have a look at emerging market currencies. After declining rather substantially, they may be due for a rebound. But let’s not forget that these tend to be tightly managed currencies. The dynamics there, in our analysis, are much more driven by liquidity than many other factors. And may make these currencies move more in tandem with U.S. equities.
At the risk of oversimplification, the dollar’s fate over the coming months may well be decided by how the stock market is doing. In many ways, the Fed’s actions may also be tied to how the stock market is doing (but that’s an analysis for another day). If our analysis is correct, a rising equity market may bode well for the U.S. dollar; a falling equity market may bode poorly for the greenback.
We may be a tad biased, having provided an analysis last August that we think a bear market is upon us. In the context here, we might want to add that sovereign wealth funds may need to sell U.S. dollar denominated investments to cover budget shortfalls back home, providing pressure on both equities and the greenback.
Merk Investments, Manager of the Merk Funds
Those who wish further insights on currencies can do so by registering for Merk’s Webinar entitled ‘Black Swans?’ on Thursday, March 23.
Faith in Central Banks in Question
There is one currency (commodity if you insist) that rates to have a standout performance if the dollar sinks: gold.
If there is a currency crisis or even if faith in central banks comes into question, gold rates to perform exceptionally well.
And faith in central banks is coming into question right now. Anger as noted by extreme politics in Europe, in the US and in places like Brazil is provides strong evidence.
Social Contract is Broken
People feel, and rightfully so, the “Social Contract is Broken“.
They may not blame the Fed (central banks in general), but central banks are a key factor behind rising income inequality, the decline of real wages, and the obvious increase in anger towards the establishment.
Others are starting to wonder: If central banks were in control, then why haven’t we had the 2% inflation they have wanted for years on end?
To that I ask: If central banks they get the inflation they seek, will they want it? More importantly, will the people want it, or will it anger them even more?
Truth be known, central banks were never in control, it just seemed like it. That faith is unraveling in many ways as I type, even if people don’t know precisely whom to blame.
Gold rates to benefit.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Yancey Ward said:
I am not convinced the dollar’s rise is over. The bull is in the China shop- something that was not really true over most of that first chart. Just how much does China need to devalue- are they done already? I doubt it. Breaching 2+ standard deviation might be an indication of a new regime that is unlike the ones in the past.
Tony Bennett said:
Yep … you read my thoughts.
I was incredulous – to the point I reread to just make sure – that Merk made no mention of China.
I have no doubt China will devalue.
King Dollar going nowhere anytime soon … just playing rope – a – dope as rate hikes vanish. $US will have safe haven status in coming financial crisis.
Double yep. The mother of all financial crises is coming to China. Soon.
Ron J said:
“They may not blame the Fed (central banks in general), but central banks are a key factor behind rising income inequality, the decline of real wages, and the obvious increase in anger towards the establishment.”
The FED isn’t independent. It just came out that FED members are overwhelmingly giving money to democrats. The President appoints the chairman of the FED. It is a political appointment. When asked why the FED continues to hold gold, Bernanke replied, tradition. That was a political answer.
What is THE factor behind rising income inequality?
“…even if people don’t know precisely whom to blame.”
It’s Donald Trump’s fault! Especially if it collapses on his watch! Eleventy!!?!!
The primary concern of the PTB right now is their continued existence. With Brexit might come Scotexit (from the UK). Catalonia threatens exit from Spain, Italy might exit the euro, Turkey may be ejected from NATO, Merkel might be ejected from Germany. Trump might overturn the US status quo.
These are all made more likely by the possible collapse of SWFs, China imploding, US fracking industry bankruptcies, etc.
If the PTB can just get through the November presidential election without these things occurring, maybe they (think they) will survive. They are certainly going to try. The ECB is plans to buy 100 trillion in corporate bonds from the banking system as part its bazooka. If a high dollar stands in their way, they will try to lower it. Nuts.
very good piece
the china catastrophists will be wrong again
the yuan will be a managed devaluation -not precipitous
Great chart. It says a lot technically.
The first thing I noticed was the cycle peak-peak and trough-trough. It’s a nice 18 year cycle. At this point the cycle, the Dollar is entering its strongest rally. It is 6 years past its low, and has 3 to go.
The next thing I noticed was the upper trend line connecting the two peaks. This resistance has been broken.
The last thing I noticed about the Dollar chart (StockCharts.com) since early 2015 is the Elliott wave count, which is a corrective “flat”.
All 3 technical observations point to an exponential rally (hockey stick) in the US dollar over the next 3 years.
Mickey Hickey said:
One should keep in mind that China has the best educated politicians and bureaucrats in the world, bar none. They are also making progress toward having the best educated workforce.There seems to be a tendency to underestimate China much like Napoleon and Hitler underestimated Russia.