According to Census bureau data, only seven states lost population in the last reporting year (July 2014 – July 2015).
Illinois had the second worst performance of any state, sporting a population decline of .017%. Only West Virginia, with huge coal-related woes scored lower than Illinois.
The above chart from the Bloomberg interactive chart The Population Is Swelling in Almost Every State.
The sorry thing about Illinois’ numbers is they predate ….
- The Illinois budget impasse
- The largest Chicago/Cook County property tax in history
- Numerous business closures
- Threats of still more tax hikes
This “Mash” video sums of the state of affairs in Illinois nicely.
Illinois’ Sorry State of Affairs
- March 2016: Chicago Public School System Threatens Massive Tax Hikes Via “Backdoor” Bond Guarantee
- February 2016: Moody’s Downgrades 3 Illinois Universities to Junk or Just Above Junk
- February 2016: Past Due! Illinois Vendors Furious as Unpaid Bills Top $10 Billion
- February 2016: Illinois Dead Last in Resident’s Confidence in State Government
- February 2016: “Bond Girl” Blasts Chicago Public School Bonds, Says “CPS Genuinely Insolvent”
- January 2016: Illinois Too Big a Risk: GE Moves Corporate Headquarters to Boston, Bypassing Chicago Citing Litany of Issues
- January 2016: “B” Word Hits Chicago: Illinois Governor Proposes Bankruptcy for Chicago Public School System
- December 2015: Death Watch Illinois: Despite Massive Stock Market Rally, Illinois Pension Liabilities Go Up, and Up, and Up
- October 2015: Largest Chicago Tax Hike in History, Mayor Emanuel Says “It’s Not a Piece of Art”
- August 2015: Get Me the Hell Out of Here
Everything in the above list comes after the census reporting dates!
Questions of the Day
How much additional population in the next year will Illinois lose because of …
- Additional tax hikes Mayor Emanuel and the Democrats want
- A corporate environment that is among the worst in the nation
- Absurd prevailing wages laws that drive up the cost of everything
- The worst funded pensions in the nation
- Arcane worker’s compensation laws
While pondering those ideas, please note the Illinois Supreme Court Ruled Against Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel on his pension reform plan.
The pretending period is over. The only solution to the Chicago Public School mess is bankruptcy.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Mish
I can’t fully express my gratitude for all of your insightful missives.
That’s why I’m disappointed that in my view you take a misanthropic joy in Illinois & Chicago bad news. Your glee in hammering unions ! your eager anticipation of robots eventually displacing all the workers leaving them time to enjoy your blog.
Keep the dystopic views coming
John De Frank
My apologies in advance if I misread your comments on these subjects.
Your commentary is imp to me
1. Mish talks about the corruption of PUBLIC unions and how they destroy everything where they infest.
2. Robots are coming to take away jobs whether Mish talks about them or not. They will come faster with insane unions and insane minimum wage laws.
Conflating explanation with endorsement is an insidious fallacy. Just because one demonstrates the truth does not mean one is pleased with its existence.
Interesting perspective, John.
By comparison, I’ve always viewed Mish as a realist and assumed that his attitude stems, at least in part, from the time he spent around mainframe software.
Ditto here, and I learned, eventually, that code neither knows nor cares about one’s personal opinions concerning it, similar to markets, city governments, etc.
In fact, the only way to make complex code work reliably is to thoroughly understand it’s design, enabling one to see the strengths and flaws. I think Mish has that handle on Chicago.
There’s a saying among computer support troops: “Happiness is a solid bug.”
As city governments go, Chicago is a intermittent bug. It won’t go down hard and stay there, staring stupidly at you until the root problem is fixed. It has to get worse, a condition called bankruptcy. It will get there, but a lot of folks will be hurt worse than necessary in the process.
Not dystopic: Realistic.
I spent over 20 years as a computer analyst.
Made AVP at Harris after 3 years – as a technician. That was as high as a non-manager could get.
Did not like the culture change when BMO (Bank of Montreal bought them out).
Then after 911 contracts totally dried up and I was out of work, soon to be blogging.
I had an extremely rough period for five years and started warning people do not be in debt when the housing bubble implodes.
Most thought my “cash is not trash” warning was crazy.
Mish
John – the comments by 2banana and James express my opinion well
Mish
Wow! A fellow hard core computer warrior nerd, for sure! I started out with IBM Field Engineering in Los Angeles in 1967, fresh out of the Navy, during their 360 mainframe launch. The mainframes mostly worked at that point, making it a great time to learn…if you didn’t weaken.
Enjoy your Blog…a lot.
BTW, I ended up with StorageTek. We shipped the first mainframe-attached automated tape library, Nearline, in 1991. Eventually sold Billions of dollars worth of it. It never called in sick, went on strike, dropped tape reels on the floor, etc., so I have not an iota of doubt about the coming wave of robotic automation. Deniers should drop it and go back to school.
Regards,
Tom Gooch
I wouldn’t worry about the declining Illinois population. I’m sure it just the ugly capitalists who can’t afford to buy into the political rackets that are leaving. Who needs them, right? Illinois is blessed with a very large government, and we know it is government that creates jobs AND wealth, so your future should be bright!
All kidding aside, what you face in Illinois is just a front runner of what the rest of the world is facing ultimately I think. I’m sure you are correct in some of your predictions on automation, but I do NOT think it a good thing. There will be some that prosper from it, but I truly think it will only further destabilize our economy. We cannot have technology displacing employment without some ultimate reconciliation. This can’t be good….and yes I am an automation adopter for many years, relying heavily on cnc controlled equipment. It feels like we are being sucked down a drain with nothing to grab on the way down.
Are people leaving Mississippi because of high taxes and overpaid labour unions?
Judging from what I see in Dallas, people are leaving other places to come here in droves. We are seeing massive construction of large high end multifamily housing projects. Simply crazy what I’m seeing. Sure looks like a crash coming to me. But Texas is still a relatively low tax environment and there are jobs. State Farm, Toyota and many other corporate offices are moving here to escape other areas high level of taxation.Everything has consequence.
I have one comment to that and that is, “Syrian refugees, the American style!”
We are all Detroit now.
What you mean, “we”, kimosabe?
When it come to a choice between bankruptcy {and bailing on the ruling class– gov’t workers} or another round of tax hikes, Dems will always punish those work for a living. Income tax hikes are coming to IL fast and furious. At some point they might well equal federal taxes.
If Illinois farms could leave they would.
Mish,
Please check with IL if they have a “one child policy per couple” like they have in China, them you could be looking at a influx (positive inflow) of people into the IL state
Solution quite simple.
Illinois needs to start counting dead people …. uh, they’ve done it before (1960 election) …
Dead people get to vote but that is there only privilege so far.
You are correct, they need to stand up and be counted.
Rather lay down and be counted.
Mish
California is not much if any better than Illinois in any category yet they did relatively well. I think the general long term trend of people, especially retirees, moving south and west is more of a factor. Just look at the greys and reds of the northeast generally turn green to the south and west.
While the graying/snowbird effect is a factor, it can’t explain all of it. Idaho isn’t exactly a Sunshine State, and it gained along with Montana; while New Mexico lost population. A lot of California’s growth may well be tied to immigration. You see that here in NYC, although not so much in the rest of the state.
The Rockies: Mormons have kids.
As long as the asset pumping, and with it massive redistributive transfers to NYC and Cali continues, both of those will remain outliers.
The writing on the wall will be when California starts losing population. The map shows it was not one of the highest population growth states, so sustaining its debt should become much harder.
Basically productive people are leaving California and non-productive are immigrating in. That gives a view that population is going up. That as well as the 8 child households of Hispanics.
So based on this population growth of about 2.5 million per year, then the US job market needs to add 207,000 jobs per month JUST TO BREAK EVEN.
Which means the jobs market has been literally going nowhere.
Looks like Obama is the “fiction-peddler-in-chief”.
I estimate about 100,000
Right now people are retiring faster than they are turning working age.
Mish
Are those voluntary retirements or simply people who can’t find jobs? Is every person over 55 without a job “retired”? How do we count this 90+ million “not in the workforce”? We see these numbers showing predominantly over the age of 50 people acquiring and retaining a high percentage of the jobs….along with foreigners. I don’t think we can accurately assess what any metrics mean until they are OUR metrics.