In the wake of the Wisconsin primary that really didn’t change anything, the amount of media hype to the contrary is amusing to watch.
For example, Jake Novak at CNBC says Forget Trump. Paul Ryan is the likely GOP nominee.
Novak bases his analysis on the idea that a genuinely brokered convention requires three things.
- Two leading candidates neither of whom has a majority.
- Irreconcilable differences such that neither would ever support the other.
- A third compromise candidate that both sides can begrudgingly support.
Novak believes Trump cannot defeat Hillary (an idea I strongly refute), and this will cause the delegates to rally around Paul Ryan.
Silver Says Cruz, Not Ryan
Nate Silver says Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention.
It’s like something out of an Aaron Sorkin script. After their bitterly divisive primary, the Republican delegates come together to nominate John Kasich on the fourth ballot at a contested convention in Cleveland, despite his having won only his home state of Ohio. Or they choose House Speaker Paul Ryan, despite his not having run in the primaries at all. Balloons descend from the ceiling, celestial choirs sing and everything is right again with the Republican Party, which goes on to beat Hillary Clinton in a landslide in November.
As I said, it’s like something out of a TV show. In other words: probably fiction. It’s not that hard to imagine a contested convention. In fact, with Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates looking tenuous, especially after his loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, it’s a real possibility. And it’s not hard to see how Republicans might think of Kasich or Ryan as good nominees. If Republicans were starting from scratch, both might be pretty good picks, especially from the perspective of the party “establishment” in Washington.
But Republicans won’t be starting from scratch, and the “establishment” won’t pick the party’s nominee. The 2,472 delegates in Cleveland will.
Delegate Selection Process Favors Cruz
Silver goes into a detailed explanation of the five major delegate selection mechanisms, noting a whopping 1,358 delegates (55% of the total) are chosen through state and local conventions.
“Cruz is likely to do well among delegates chosen through state and local conventions because we’ve seen that demonstrated quite a few times already,” says Silver.
Silver concludes …
It’s true that a contested convention is uncharted territory in the modern political era, so we can’t be completely sure what the delegates would do. The 2,472 delegates have nearly unlimited authority to rewrite the convention rules, and if most of the them really wanted to see Ryan or Kasich nominated, they could probably find a way to do it. Or, if the voting was a stalemate between Trump and Cruz for many ballots, a true dark horse — maybe someone far more obscure than Ryan or Kasich — could emerge as a compromise. We can’t rule out these outcomes.
But we’re also learning more and more about who those delegates are now that they’re being chosen. They’re not members of the Washington “establishment.” Instead, they’re mostly grass-roots activists, and many of them want Cruz to be their next president.
Amusing Wisconsin Tidbit
Trump only won two Wisconsin districts. One of them was Paul Ryan’s.
I found that tidbit in the Rasmussen analysis Kasich Plays the Spoiler.
The Kasich campaign, with predictable political spin, claims that Cruz’s win over Trump now shows that the GOP race is ”wide open.” With neither of the top two contenders likely to have enough delegates to claim the nomination on the first ballot, the Kasich team sees things as ripe for maneuvering their candidate into the nomination at the convention. Kasich himself says an open convention will be “fun” and “cool.”
The problem for Kasich is that GOP voters don’t want a brokered convention: 51% say the candidate who enters the convention with the most delegates should be the nominee. Just 34% think the delegates at the convention should choose the nominee by voting for whomever they want.
Even Karl Rove, the dean of Republican political operatives who lost his candidate when Jeb Bush flamed out, doesn’t think nominating someone who can’t win primaries is a good idea. Rove, however, is no fan of either Trump or Cruz, so he now suggests that perhaps the party needs “a fresh face” as a nominee. Translation: We’ll sacrifice our guy (Kasich) if you sacrifice your guys (Trump, Cruz).
The leading “fresh face” is House Speaker Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin congressman whose district went for Trump in yesterday’s primary voting. Some leading Republicans see a Ryan-like candidacy as the only thing preventing a down-ticket rout of other GOP candidates if Trump or Cruz is the nominee. But Ryan insists he’s not interested.
Some in the Republican leadership may think there will be a return to “normalcy” once the insurgents are quieted. Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus has begun suggesting that there will be consequences for unsuccessful GOP candidates who challenge the party nominee.
Trump and Cruz and the majority of their delegates are not likely to go quietly, however.
For the Republican Party, it really seems to boil down to whether Cruz can defeat Trump fairly and squarely. The media has made much of Cruz’s efforts to switch delegates elected to support Trump over to his side. Unless Cruz can turn enough of those votes into a first ballot victory, his efforts just appear to play more into the hands of the brokered convention crowd who hope to use subsequent ballots to their advantage.
Hell to Pay
Forget about Paul Ryan. He cannot even deliver his own district. Trump took it.
One way or another, it looks increasingly likely there will be “Hell to Pay”. Take your pick.
- Trump Hell
- Cruz Hell
- Brokered Convention Hell
For further analysis of Wisconsin, and my reasons why Trump might beat Hillary but Cruz cannot, please see What Happens in Wisconsin Stays in Wisconsin; Hell to Pay.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Maybe Trump could pick up some libertarian leaning Cruz supporters if he asked Senator Paul to be his running mate. Trump/Paul 2016. Business expertise/Constitutional expertise.
I doubt Rand would accept the vice presidency. He will be much more effective remaining a senator.
Cannot understand how a so-called Libertarian can support Trump.
The only issue seems to be about “warmongering” for some, yet Trump is hardly clear that he would be any less than what we’ve seen, and perhaps a good deal more likely to get us into a war, given his penchant for off the hip policy making, and mercurial reaction to the slightest “diss”.
http://economiccollapsenews.com/2016/03/31/libertarians-for-donald-trump-5-reasons-libertarians-cant-support-trump/
https://reason.com/blog/2016/04/06/the-alt-right-is-wrong-trump-is-an-enemy
How can any libertarian support trump?
Good question!
Please consider … Which Presidential Candidate Am I?
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/03/25/81057/
Once again Trump has huge flaws.
I totally understand someone voting Libertarian.
My position now, is to vote for the most disruptive anti-war, anti-government, anti-Fed candidate that has a chance of winning.
If Trump fails to win the nomination, I will endorse Johnson.
Note that I have not endorsed Trump. I have merely stated I will vote for him – as of right now.
Some of his policy proposals are in deed ridiculous.
Mish
By the way, I picked up that link from Lew Rockwell.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/political-theatre/presidential-candidate/
Trump is also the candidate who has said the opposite of all those things. His campaign strategy seems to be that every issue is like a die, put your face on all 6 sides and everyone will believe their number has come up.
As Shamrock said, Trump has been rather inconsistent, at best.
Thanks for the links. Had already read a well articulated Lew Rockwell article endorsing Trump some time ago. The problem comes back to the above… which is, in essence, credibility.
IMHO, it is more wishful thinking than fact, given Trump’s profound lack of depth on the issues and his proposals, and his lengthy history beyond his most recent turn abouts.
Add to that Trump’s dalliances along an Authoritarian line, and it should come with heavy second thoughts for any Libertarian to consider voting for him, even if he was more credible.
Notwithstanding all the above, one must still wonder about the seriousness of Trump’s campaign given his lack of strategy for winning. Cruz is walloping Trump on ensuring he has support in the people selected to represent the delegation. This is an effort that needed to start early on. Good explanation here (sorry that it is Nate Silver again)…
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-not-paul-ryan-would-probably-win-a-contested-convention/?ex_cid=538twitter
And, if Trump has that much of a miss on his campaign, one has to wonder about his ability to win an election, or even on delivering on his promises if elected. He will not have a divided field, nor can he count on the media (MSM anyway) giving him a free ride
How about “None of the above” – especially excluding a potential Barack Obama 3rd term (which the SCOTUS would enable by calling it a “tax”). Especially not Joe Biden. Just say no.
I think this Ryan talk is Overton window moving. They suggest a path that is so grossly offputting from a fairness standpoint that their true plan, to just cheat enough to shoehorn Cruz into the slot will seem ok. Won’t work but they’ll try anyway. Hillary wants to run against Cruz. Won’t be the first time Dems have “helped” the GOP pick their candidate. They don’t call the GOP the stupid party for nothing.
Look at the way everything has gone. Cheat, lie, swindle, and all for an alignment of the big bankers, the military industrial complex and the passage of TPP. Link that with the “on the doorstep” bond crisis, Brexit, France’s changing sentiment, ISIS… ect. The people at large have had it with insiders. If they had their choice, Clinton, Cruz, Ryan, Kasich, and all the insiders would be held under water till the bubbles quit. The republican and democratic party is finished in the eyes of the people. We demand our country back.
Trump has really dumb rocks as advisors for his Campaign. What the hell were they doing when the Republican Party quietly removed the rule that they had in place to ensure Romney got the nomination last time? I am talking about Rule 40(b). Rule 40(b), requires a presidential candidate to win eight states to qualify for the nomination. But it was scrapped suddenly for the upcoming convention in Cleveland with nary a peep from the Trump campaign. Guess what? If Trump had raised a hue and cry, the whole of America would have known about the Dirty Tricks that the GOP Insiders were pulling to prevent Trump from being the nominee.
“The GOP is trying to pretend that the delegates pick the nominee, but if they can stop Trump on the first ballot then they are free to vote for whoever they want, which nullifies the entire primary process.
The ceiling will start to crumble when the American people see that their votes do not really count. The establishment picks the nominee — not the people.
Those in power will NEVER surrender their power willingly. Donald Trump is flying in the face of people so corrupt that they would not hesitate to have him assassinated somehow, be it a plane or car crash or under the pretense of some minority who gets amazing access. This is standard operating procedure and it is dominant throughout history from ancient times to the present. They will stop Donald Trump one way or another.”
That was Martin Armstrong for you.
Trump did win two congressional districts in Wisconsin, the 3rd (southwest centered on Lacrosse) and the 7th (the western North Noods centered on nothing). Paul Ryan represents the 1st (Racine, Kenosha and a bit more).
Evidence:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_cd/WI_GOP_0405_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
and
http://paulryan.house.gov/biography/
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin's_congressional_districts#/media/File:Wisconsin_Congressional_Districts,_113th_Congress.tif
Richard
I guess Mish means Trump won Rock County, he narrowly missed out on winning the 2nd CD.
There will be no contested convention Trump will get enough, or close enough, to win on the 1st ballot. Just wishful thinking by special interests and the media looking to create a contest that was over weeks ago.
Voter Fraud in Wisconsin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDP5Nn7ObeA
Another commenter said:
“Funny thing tho… where I voted (Milwaukee) which was supposedly heavily Cruz, I spoke to about 10-12 people, to a person they all voted Trump…hmmmmmmm…”
Cruz was predicted the winner very quickly.
well, if Hillary steals the nomination from Sanders, I am voting for TRUMP
Trump was done when he started Mish. Career politicians will not allow his nomination. You can take that to the bank. I love watching the RNC implode.