Yesterday I wrote Mish Projection: Trump Wins Nomination with 1,246 Delegates (9 More than Needed) .
I almost held off for a day posting that. Typically, when I do that, I regret it. Someone else beats you to the idea (or appears to), even though you had the idea first.
Today, Nate Cohn at the New York Times writes Donald Trump’s Path to 1,237 Is Not Mission Impossible.
I predicted a winner, Cohn didn’t. However, our reasoning, and even the states we mentioned were nearly identical.
Not Mission Impossible – Cohn vs. Mish
Cohn:
Until Wisconsin, Donald Trump was considered likely to win a majority of pledged delegates. In truth, his plan to reach 1,237 was already very vulnerable; Ted Cruz had built enough support by March 15 that even adding a modest share of Marco Rubio’s voters was likely to start him on the road to deny Mr. Trump a majority.
But after Mr. Trump’s loss Tuesday, the conventional wisdom has gone too far in the other direction. His path to 1,237 is still clear. It is certainly narrow, but it may require him to do only two challenging things: win two tossup states, Indiana and California. There’s an argument he’s currently favored in both.
The polls in the Northeast suggest that Mr. Cruz would be lucky to end with the split of anti-Trump voters (38 percent for him and 29 percent for Mr. Kasich) that he got in Madison. Mr. Kasich has generally run ahead of Mr. Cruz in the Northeast.
His path is narrow enough that every delegate counts. He might need as much as 90 percent of the delegates from the Northeastern states and West Virginia to keep his delegate target in California manageable. But it’s not very difficult to imagine Mr. Trump doing so well.
Mish:
My big pickups [over Silver’s expert panel] are New York (+15), Indiana (+8), and California (+25).
Trump is polling extremely well in New York, over 50%. I gave Trump 14 at the state level.
At the district level, if at least 2 presidential contenders receive 20% or more of the vote, the candidate with the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate with the second most of votes receives 1 delegate.
Curiously, this math helps Trump. Kasich will take votes from Cruz, not Trump. Is Kasich about to drop out? If not, he helps Trump at the district level, but potentially hurts Trump at at the state level.
[Note: I awarded Trump 86 of 95 NY delegates, just over 90%]
Cohn:
The most important state that no one is talking about is Indiana. The contest there comes one week after the Northeastern primaries, and it’s arguably the most balanced state left in the race. It has a mix of both Mr. Cruz and Mr. Trump’s strengths, somewhat like the two states where they’ve fought two of their closest races so far, North Carolina and Missouri.
Indiana awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district, which could easily allow Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz to claim most of the state’s 57 delegates with a modest victory.
There isn’t much polling data in Indiana, but Mr. Cruz would be a favorite if he could get the level of support among non-Trump voters that he did in Wisconsin. It would be a closer race than Wisconsin; it’s the type of state where Mr. Trump ought to approach or exceed 40 percent of the vote, not the 35 percent he won in Wisconsin.
Provided he dominates in the Northeast as expected, Mr. Trump will have a good chance to win the nomination if he can carry Indiana. Without it, it’s very difficult for him to reach 1,237.
Mish:
[I guess I am no one. Regardless, this is what I had to say about Indiana]
The experts gave Indiana to Trump. My rationale for Indiana was to simply go with the experts and work backwards.
Indiana awards 30 delegates to the overall winner. I put those in Trump’s column.
Indiana has another 27 delegates (9 districts of 3 delegates each). I gave Trump a modest 5 of those 9 to reach my total of 45 [out of 57].
If the experts are correct overall, I will beat them. If the experts are wrong, I will do much worse.
Cohn:
If Mr. Trump wins big in the Northeast, carries Indiana and picks up a few proportional delegates in New Mexico, Oregon and Washington (as he is all but assured to do), the race will come down to California on June 7.
It’s too far away to be very confident about whether Mr. Trump would have a realistic chance to win the 70 percent or so of California delegates that he would need to win an outright majority.
But, at least right now, it looks realistic.
Mish:
California is a curious bird.
Silver’s Polls-Only California Forecast says Trump has a 65% chance of winning. However, based on his secret sauce, Silver says Cruz has a 61% chance of winning.
This is how the secret sauce projects things.
I find Silver’s secret sauce all the more incredible because Silver projects Trump to have a 49% chance of winning the nomination.
Adding to the confusion, Silver’s expert panel has Trump winning the state.
Here’s the deal: If Cruz were to win California by those margins, Trump would not now realistically have a 49% chance of coming up with the delegates, unless I am way off on my assignment of a mere 15 of 125 uncommitted delegates in Trump’s camp.
Alternatively, Trump can do better in states like Colorado, Connecticut, Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico, coupled with 25 of 125 of the uncommitteds.
[I gave Trump 118 out of 172 California delegates. That’s 68.6%. So Cohn and I are thinking similarly about percentages needed. I am not at all confident about that number but I underplayed Trump’s chances in Colorado, Connecticut, Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico]
Cohn:
Provided he dominates in the Northeast as expected, Mr. Trump will have a good chance to win the nomination if he can carry Indiana. Without it, it’s very difficult for him to reach 1,237. He would either have to win nearly all of California’s delegates or win a state where he’s an underdog — most likely Montana — and post a clear win in California. It’s possible, but it’s hard to see how he would be poised to do either of those things if he’s losing in Indiana.
Obviously a lot could change between now and June, but this is not a crazy scenario. It’s consistent with the current state polling and it’s consistent with how demographically similar states have voted so far this cycle. If Mr. Cruz can’t unify Republican voters, it might just happen.
Mish – Bottom Line – Close to Tossup:
Some states I know very little about and there are no recent polls. Five states, shaded in blue, (Colorado, Connecticut, Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico) are places where I went with the expert opinion. However, I suspect Trump can pick up a handful somewhere.
Montana appears to be rigged as delegates are selected by the County Central Committee, but perhaps Trump can unexpectedly pick up a few of those.
My projection is not fearless.
All I did was extrapolate expert opinions in the logical direction based on state-by-state analysis of delegate assignment rules from the Green Papers.
We are very close to a tossup here. I placed Trump over the top, but barely, explaining my sauce. Other sauce remains secret.
Things can dramatically change one way or another between now and California.
If Silver gets to update his forecasts, so do I.
Final Comments
Cohn and I wrote similar posts. Our logic was nearly identical. Indiana, a state allegedly “no one is talking about” was was a key state in my analysis.
I mentioned Montana, as did Cohn.
I was first.
This is not an accusation. I strongly suspect Cohn is one of those few people who actually dive into the details to look at what’s cookin’.
The key difference in what we wrote is I made a prediction, he didn’t.
I said Mish Projection: Trump Wins Nomination with 1,246 Delegates (9 More than Needed).
To see my state-by-state projections and detailed reasons for each state, click on the above link.
I reserve the right to be wrong, but my overall analysis was sound.
Thanks for the confirmation of my analysis Nate Cohn!
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Goldman Sachs wants Hiltlery and Crudz to face off. This was finished last year and the rest was just entertainment and our choices don’t mean a thing.
Greg – be optimistic. If it doesn’t turn out well, scream then. The two parties are laying their guts out on the table for all to see. Only good can come from this; people are beginning to see. Change happens all the time, and it can happen again, but in order for change to occur the sh*t has to hit the fan. Let’s cheer it on.
Ross Perot tried to warn us, but we wouldn’t listen. Quiet… listen…. you can hear the sucking sounds: Bush HW…. Clinton(D)… Bush Jr…. Obama…. Clinton(V)… Cruz…. Kasich…. Goldman Sachs…..
Every presidential ‘race”, it’s Always the same sound…
Goldman Sucks wins either way, as usual they have hedged their bet. Hitlery will support the Banksters, and Crudz is a phony, his wife work for GS.
trump will get SCHLONGED in the fall
state the case
Don’t you just love the media’s BS stories? Trump has stomped 14 republican hopefuls into the ground, he tear’s Rubio’s head off at his own home state, Cruz gets stomped with Kasich running his own easter egg contest, yet the press says Trump can’t beat either of the democrats. Really? That is how the press-titutes work for Wall Street… but now they are finding out the hard way that nobody watches the Fox, CNN, MSNBC propaganda stations anymore, but somehow, some way, Trump is gonna get dumped.
Mish,
There is no case because it is BS. The more I hear trump is done in the media the more I believe he is ahead.
When a “party” always lies, why not just save time and believe the exact opposite?
I agree with you Michael!
“The lady :::::cough cough::::: doth protest too much!”
I mean those nay-sayers sure don’t have any vested interest in attacking Trump now do they?
FYI
“Here’s how much corporations paid US senators to fast-track the TPP bill
Critics of the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership are unlikely to be silenced by an analysis of the flood of money it took to push the pact over its latest hurdle…”
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/27/corporations-paid-us-senators-fast-track-tpp
Two key factors:
Does the GOP leadership want to win enough to back Trump if he’s clearly the strongest candidate?
Will we soon be in recession?
If the economy tanks Trump is clearly the strongest candidate to run against Clinton. Imagine her shrill railing that she will stay the course and follow the successful policies of Obama even as the economy tanks. In that scenario Trump would mop the floor with her.
I believe we are likely in recession now. So Trump is the winning choice. However; the venal, war mongering, GOP leadership may decide they honestly believe self destruction is better (for them) than a Trump presidency.
We are certainly living in interesting times.
“If the economy tanks”
No such thing will happen until the day after election. Until then, the numbers will be fudged, media will report how everything is better than ever, and S&P will stay in 2100-2200 range, since it is a single entity to use as a talking point.
The only thing going for Trump or Bernie is reality.
You are correct. It is the “scorched Earth” concept. If I can’t have it, then neither can you !!
The Republican Establishment will not allow anybody else to run the Republican Establishment. Not the Tea Party, Not a Pat Buchanan, etc and not a wise-ass Donald Trump. Never.
So? Let Hilary win ,since with her win, the Republican Establishment is still Established and in control of THEIR party., and can still strut around D.C…..Then, come next election, they will find a nice phony (Establishment) candiddate to sucker in the dumb Republican voters to again support the Republican Establishment.
IT is not about the Parties. It is not about Policy. It is not about the Country. It is ONLY about those who run/control the Parties who are willing to take turns just as long as it is ONLY THEM.
It is better to rule in Hell than serve in Heaven.
Many voters plan on voting against all GOP candidates at all levels of government if they pull that stunt.
Unless Trump pulls a Ross Perot I think he gets the nomination. Even if he falls a few votes short of the 1237. If the GOP denies him – it will destroy their base and their Party. Trump has them backed into a corner. It’s his to lose. The only way he fails to make it to the general election is if he takes a dive and sabotages his own campaign.
See my comment to Centurion above.
Trump always plans with multiple paths to victory…………
God, i just hope the pro-Trump protest planned in Cleveland doesn’t turn into a violent clash with BLM or something. If it does, the “republicans insiders” at the convention will use the event to dump him… “See, he stirs violence where ever he goes”. Trump 2016 and DUMP TPP.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/these-200-people-could-decide-whether-donald-trump-gets-the-gop-nomination/2016/04/07/5c5999e0-fc41-11e5-9140-e61d062438bb_story.html
Looks like the delegates outstanding at the convention will determine this.
Huffington Post commentary says a Kasich/Rubio unity ticket is the likely scenario for several reasons.
Trump needs about 50% of vote in each remaining state to secure nomination before convention. I think it is too close to call.
Trump Kasich more likely if Trump falls short. Trump already win FL, Kasich will help win PA and OH.
Is it a secret source or a secret sauce? You might be right if he has been hitting the sauce before writing his predictions.
Given that SANDERS swept WA state by a landslide 75% to 30%; I predict that TRUMP will do the same again, here-people are out for the anti establishment guys here-no more status quo-weve seen FAR TOO MUCH OF THAT
Paul Manafort being hired by Trump is the key event here, will bring it home.
In 08 McCain won 158 delegates in CA by beating Romney 42 to 34, Trump could be really understated in delegates he will win there.
The Optimus poll of NY, which included by Congressional District, has him winning 82 delegates there, redistributing the large number of undecideds (15%) they had.
Looking at the results of counties bordering Indiana it is very hard to see anyone winning that except Trump, pretty comfortably too.
Trump could name Henry Blodgett as his running mate and win in November.
Trump is owning the media, even as they try to undermine his campaign.
Trump will certainly win New York and probably more than that.
The only questions remain are : what does Trump stand for? What kind of cabinet will he appoint?
Yeah, Trump has totally “punked” the Lame-Stream Media, by just letting them be themselves – outright pretenders.
Hey, don’t feel so bad.
Darwin sat on his Book “Origin of Species” for about 20 years. He wrote it around 1839 but did not publish until 1859. Why? He was very worried about the impact of his theory on the people’s reliance and trust in their religion(s) and the impact on society, etc.
He “had” to publish since he received a manuscript for a book from a researcher working in Indonesia who came up with the SAME theories and wanted the opinion of Darwin. What “luck”, huh. This gentleman was named Wallace and this forced Darwin to publish.
So, you are in illustrious company.,
Mish, I believe your projections to be spot on. We are in for some interesting times.
Frank
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/04/09/current-polls-favor-a-trump-delegate-majority/
Sam Wang is even more bullish on Trump’s chances.
Very Flawed Math IMO
National polls useless for predicting this.
His analysis on PA likely quite wrong.
The only accurate way is state by state polls and state by state rules.
Mish