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19 thoughts on “Don’t Worry, Here’s 10 Reasons There Won’t Be a Recession”
Excellent reminder – especially for those of us who actually saw a recession back then. As you and I have discussed, I saw the downturn in petroleum distillates usage in October 2007 and baled on the market immediately.
11. It’s an election year and the Fed/Goldman must get their candidate elected.
12. The keeper of the statistics will decide when to “adjust” them to comply with the desired outcome. ie; no recession unless the Fed or it’s masters want one.
13. What difference does it make when the GDP numbers don’t really accurately measure true economic growth in the first place?
And really, when you think about it, the Fed has been the instigator of recessions for decades, when it has blown bubbles, then taken away the punch bowl. Sans their “wisdom” and intervention, recessions might occur naturally due to fundamentals, and actually present some healing processes.
How come when I went to school a 30 percent was a failure, then when I was in Naval flight school, a 90 percent was a failure, yet most economists get failures all the time and still keep getting paid? How many times do they have to be proven wrong before their credibility goes down at least one notch?
From “The Great Depression of the 1930s and Its Origins”
Working backwards:
Result – The Great Depression
Immediate cause – “The collapse of investment purchases [ed. the purchases of new
equipment and buildings and inventory] can be considered the immediate cause of the Depression.”
Cause of investment collapse – “The problem in the early 1930’s was that the rate of inflation was negative… Once excess capacity and expectations of decreased sales develop the level of investment drops to zero.”
Cause of excess capacity & disinflation – “The Fed in the late 1920’s was trying to end the
speculative bubble in the stock market.”
Cause for late 20s Fed policy & root cause of Great Depression – “The speculative bubble in the stock market in the late 1920’s can be attributed to the easy money policy of the Fed starting in about 1927.”
Mish – It is funny I stopped reading your blog from 2009. I smelled another recession in January of this year and came back and started reading again everyday. I felt the economic “recovery” is long in the tooth and if things were so great, you wouldn’t have the establishment in both parties quaking in their boots. It isn’t like 2008 but it may rhyme by the time November gets here. TPTB is still trying to violate the laws of gravity.
NEWSWEEK Muslims Are Creating ‘Nations Within Nations’ Says Former Head of U.K. Equalities Commission By Lucy Clarke-Billings On 4/11/16 at 4:48 AM Trevor Phillips, the (now former) Chair of the Equality and Human Rights Commission, speaks at the British Chamber of Commerce Annual Conference held at the headquarters of BAFTA on March 18, 2010 in London, England. Oli Scarff/Getty WorldBritish MuslimsIslamEqualityMuslimsSharia lawChannel 4DocumentaryThe former head of Britain’s Equalities and Human Rights Commission (EHRC), Trevor Phillips, has admitted he “got almost everything wrong” regarding immigration in a new report, claiming Muslims are creating “nations within nations” in the West. Phillips says followers of Islam hold very different values from the rest of society and many want to lead separate lives. The former head of the U.K.’s equalities watchdog also advocates the monitoring of ethnic minority populations on housing estates to stop them becoming “ghetto villages.” He says schools may have to consider a 50 per cent limit on Muslim, or other minority pupils, to encourage social integration. And he says disturbing survey findings point to a growing chasm between the attitudes of many British Muslims and their compatriots. Phillips’ intervention comes after he was asked to analyse the findings of a major survey on Muslim attitudes in the U.K., which will form the basis of Channel 4’s documentary, What British Muslims Really Think, which is due to air on Wednesday night. An ICM poll released to the Times, in Britain, ahead of the broadcast reveals: • One in five Muslims in Britain never enter a non-Muslim house • 39 per cent of Muslims, male and female, say a woman should always obey her husband • 31 per cent of British Muslims support the right of a man to have more than one wife • 52 per cent of Muslims did not believe that homosexuality should be legal • 23 per cent of Muslims support the introduction of Sharia law rather than the laws laid down by parliament The documentary will portray the U.K.’s Muslims as a “nation within a nation” that has its own geography and values. Phillips commissioned a report into Britain and Islamophobia in 1997 which, according to both Phillips himself and academics across the country, popularised the phrase which has now become synonymous with any criticism of Islam or Muslims. “It’s not as though we couldn’t have seen this coming. But we’ve repeatedly failed to spot the warning signs,” he now writes in The Times , in response to new data collected. “Twenty years ago… I published the report titled Islamophobia: A Challenge for Us All, we thought that the real risk of the arrival of new communities was discrimination against Muslims. “Our 1996 survey of recent incidents showed that there was plenty of it around. But we got almost everything else wrong.” In an article for the Daily Mail, Phillips warns of a “life-and-death struggle for the soul of British Islam.” “Britain is in many ways a better place than it’s ever been—more prosperous, more diverse, more liberal. “But for some of our fellow citizens, we’re heading in entirely the wrong direction. So much so that some of them would rather live under a wholly different system. “Indeed, a significant minority of Britain’s three million Muslims consider us a nation of such low morals that they would rather live more separately from their non-Muslim countrymen, preferably under sharia law. “This sobering conclusion comes from the most comprehensive survey of British Muslims ever conducted, commissioned by Channel 4. “Having been asked to examine its results, I believe it holds a grim message for all of us. “There is a life-and-death struggle for the soul of British Islam—and this is not a battle that the rest of us can afford to sit out. We need to take sides.” Date: Mon, 11 Apr 2016 14:05:39 +0000 To: fgmackay5@hotmail.com
This is just plain too brilliant!! I’ve sent it to a dozen friends. Yay, Mish!
Thanks Mish for debunking stupidity……
Excellent reminder – especially for those of us who actually saw a recession back then. As you and I have discussed, I saw the downturn in petroleum distillates usage in October 2007 and baled on the market immediately.
They forgot China. China is the locomotive that will pull the world economies forward. Today China private debt to GDP is 300%. That’s twice the usual tipping point for financial crisis. Read Richard Vague for details. The Atlantic covered his work recently.
Here:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/09/government-debt-isnt-the-problemprivate-debt-is/379865/
Is the link.
11. It’s an election year and the Fed/Goldman must get their candidate elected.
12. The keeper of the statistics will decide when to “adjust” them to comply with the desired outcome. ie; no recession unless the Fed or it’s masters want one.
13. What difference does it make when the GDP numbers don’t really accurately measure true economic growth in the first place?
And really, when you think about it, the Fed has been the instigator of recessions for decades, when it has blown bubbles, then taken away the punch bowl. Sans their “wisdom” and intervention, recessions might occur naturally due to fundamentals, and actually present some healing processes.
How come when I went to school a 30 percent was a failure, then when I was in Naval flight school, a 90 percent was a failure, yet most economists get failures all the time and still keep getting paid? How many times do they have to be proven wrong before their credibility goes down at least one notch?
#10 is a complete joke
inventories are low??
inventories / sales is recessionary and heading higher
That was in reference to 2007
I did not check
If some category consistently shows unfavorable readings we will just stop counting it. Only count those categories which provide desired ourcome.
Increasing GDP and decreasing standard of living can go hand in hand.
Excess labor + excess manufacturing capacity = no (or very minor) recession.
From “The Great Depression of the 1930s and Its Origins”
Working backwards:
Result – The Great Depression
Immediate cause – “The collapse of investment purchases [ed. the purchases of new
equipment and buildings and inventory] can be considered the immediate cause of the Depression.”
Cause of investment collapse – “The problem in the early 1930’s was that the rate of inflation was negative… Once excess capacity and expectations of decreased sales develop the level of investment drops to zero.”
Cause of excess capacity & disinflation – “The Fed in the late 1920’s was trying to end the
speculative bubble in the stock market.”
Cause for late 20s Fed policy & root cause of Great Depression – “The speculative bubble in the stock market in the late 1920’s can be attributed to the easy money policy of the Fed starting in about 1927.”
Any similarities to today???
The economists of today still don’t understand the importance of private debt as a lead up to crises like TGD. Read Richard Vague or Steve Keen.
Mish – It is funny I stopped reading your blog from 2009. I smelled another recession in January of this year and came back and started reading again everyday. I felt the economic “recovery” is long in the tooth and if things were so great, you wouldn’t have the establishment in both parties quaking in their boots. It isn’t like 2008 but it may rhyme by the time November gets here. TPTB is still trying to violate the laws of gravity.
You mean “here ARE 10 reasons…” Let’s try to remember correct English.
Well, Mish, 3 out of 10 ain’t bad at all!
In August 2011 Mish was telling us we were already in a recession. Remember, when you point a finger, you have four pointing back at you http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/us-in-recession-right-here-right-now.html
NEWSWEEK Muslims Are Creating ‘Nations Within Nations’ Says Former Head of U.K. Equalities Commission By Lucy Clarke-Billings On 4/11/16 at 4:48 AM Trevor Phillips, the (now former) Chair of the Equality and Human Rights Commission, speaks at the British Chamber of Commerce Annual Conference held at the headquarters of BAFTA on March 18, 2010 in London, England. Oli Scarff/Getty WorldBritish MuslimsIslamEqualityMuslimsSharia lawChannel 4DocumentaryThe former head of Britain’s Equalities and Human Rights Commission (EHRC), Trevor Phillips, has admitted he “got almost everything wrong” regarding immigration in a new report, claiming Muslims are creating “nations within nations” in the West. Phillips says followers of Islam hold very different values from the rest of society and many want to lead separate lives. The former head of the U.K.’s equalities watchdog also advocates the monitoring of ethnic minority populations on housing estates to stop them becoming “ghetto villages.” He says schools may have to consider a 50 per cent limit on Muslim, or other minority pupils, to encourage social integration. And he says disturbing survey findings point to a growing chasm between the attitudes of many British Muslims and their compatriots. Phillips’ intervention comes after he was asked to analyse the findings of a major survey on Muslim attitudes in the U.K., which will form the basis of Channel 4’s documentary, What British Muslims Really Think, which is due to air on Wednesday night. An ICM poll released to the Times, in Britain, ahead of the broadcast reveals: • One in five Muslims in Britain never enter a non-Muslim house • 39 per cent of Muslims, male and female, say a woman should always obey her husband • 31 per cent of British Muslims support the right of a man to have more than one wife • 52 per cent of Muslims did not believe that homosexuality should be legal • 23 per cent of Muslims support the introduction of Sharia law rather than the laws laid down by parliament The documentary will portray the U.K.’s Muslims as a “nation within a nation” that has its own geography and values. Phillips commissioned a report into Britain and Islamophobia in 1997 which, according to both Phillips himself and academics across the country, popularised the phrase which has now become synonymous with any criticism of Islam or Muslims. “It’s not as though we couldn’t have seen this coming. But we’ve repeatedly failed to spot the warning signs,” he now writes in The Times , in response to new data collected. “Twenty years ago… I published the report titled Islamophobia: A Challenge for Us All, we thought that the real risk of the arrival of new communities was discrimination against Muslims. “Our 1996 survey of recent incidents showed that there was plenty of it around. But we got almost everything else wrong.” In an article for the Daily Mail, Phillips warns of a “life-and-death struggle for the soul of British Islam.” “Britain is in many ways a better place than it’s ever been—more prosperous, more diverse, more liberal. “But for some of our fellow citizens, we’re heading in entirely the wrong direction. So much so that some of them would rather live under a wholly different system. “Indeed, a significant minority of Britain’s three million Muslims consider us a nation of such low morals that they would rather live more separately from their non-Muslim countrymen, preferably under sharia law. “This sobering conclusion comes from the most comprehensive survey of British Muslims ever conducted, commissioned by Channel 4. “Having been asked to examine its results, I believe it holds a grim message for all of us. “There is a life-and-death struggle for the soul of British Islam—and this is not a battle that the rest of us can afford to sit out. We need to take sides.” Date: Mon, 11 Apr 2016 14:05:39 +0000 To: fgmackay5@hotmail.com