On Friday, Liz and I went to a Karaoke bar and I asked the question “Who are you for in the presidential election?”
On Saturday, Liz and I went to a different Karaoke bar and I asked the same question to 31 different people.
As with Friday night, I received some interesting comments. Here are the results from Saturday.
- Donald Trump: 11
- Bernie Sanders: 8
- Will not vote: 5
- Ted Cruz: 3
- Hillary Clinton: 2
- Refuse to answer: 2
I did not ask any of the same people I asked on Friday. Once again, the mix of people was about 50-50 men and women.
The age demographic was slightly different. On Friday it was mid-30s to mid 60s, on Saturday it was mid-20s to mid-60s.
Those under the aged of 30 were for Sanders.
Once again it was the women who were the strongest Trump supporters. I did not ask why but I listened to reasons if people provided them.
Consider the response of a mother-daughter pair sitting at the bar. The daughter is age 25, and for Sanders. She volunteered “my mother is strongly for Trump”.
The mother chimed in with “This country desperately needs Trump. We need to run the country like a business.”
In my Friday poll, Hillary received no votes. On Saturday, Hillary received 2 votes, both from men.
The strong comments against someone, when offered, were generally against Hillary. Strong comments for someone, were generally for Trump.
The person I spent the most time with was a young man, age 24. Let’s call him Robert as I don’t remember. Robert is a statistics major at Illinois State University, and a strong Sanders supporter. His father was for Trump.
He asked what I was doing and why, then commented that my survey was not valid because of demographics.
I told him that I was well aware of that. “There are no blacks, no Hispanics, and bar hoppers in general are not a diverse group,” I replied.
We discussed taxpayer-sponsored free education. I railed against it, and was surprised by his response.
Robert is also against the idea, practically stating my own words back at me. As I have stated many times before: If everyone has a PhD, then PhDs will be driving trucks and collecting garbage.
Although Karaoke bars in McHenry County, Illinois do not provide a representative sample, the strength for Trump surprised me.
Even more surprising was the lack of support for Hillary, especially by women. Not a single woman was for Hillary. And the strongest Trump supporters were women.
I think this disproves the notion that Trump will get hammered by women. Some Republicans may not like Trump, but how many will switch to Hillary?
Comment from Mish Reader
A reader commented on my blog “If Trump is the nominee, the GOP will lose the election. I cannot imagine any universe that exists where I would cast a vote for him.”
I responded “Perhaps if you ask around you will find other people differ dramatically”.
Another reader commented on a statement I made about the black vote.
This person commented “You are wrong about the Black vote. I live in North Carolina. I also work in a very busy retail establishment. From time to time I ask people who they like for president. Every single black person has said that they will vote for Trump.”
Outside the Box
People view these things largely from their own point of view. Simply by asking around, one can find a clear ground swell of “I am fed up!” votes.
Yet, as Robert commented, “if I took the same bar poll in Texas, the results would have been dramatically different.”
Indeed! But here’s the key point (and question): “Trump can win Texas, but can Cruz win Illinois, or New Jersey?”
Nominating an Evangelical war-monger with limited appeal outside the evangelicals and war-mongers is not a winning strategy.
For the results of my first poll, please see Mish’s Informal Bar Poll: “Who are you for in the presidential election?”
Mike “Mish” Shedlock