In the wake of dismal retail sales numbers for March and inventories for February, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast rose to 0.2 percentage points to +0.3%.
I expected a dip to -0.3% because inventories and sales were both down.
We have seen these kinds of results before, so this is not shocking. Most likely, the numbers were factored into preliminary reports and today’s numbers were slightly better than expected.
It is tough gaming these numbers precisely because it is difficult to know what is priced in. Apparently bad auto sales were.
Fed vs. Fed Update
Earlier this week the New York Fed announced its own GDP Nowcast. The NY Fed version comes out Friday. Unfortunately the scales do not precisely match so it’s hard to line up charts directly.
I played around with the NY Fed chart a bit, increasing the size, and this alignment is close enough to see where the models diverged.
Current Scorecard
- Atlanta Fed +0.3
- New York Fed +1.1
The New York Fed has an update Friday. Will the models start to converge?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I think January and February retails sales were revised up, that would raise GDP estimates no?
Yes … but Q1 a bit unusual : Leap year and early Easter.
Seasonal adjustments took center stage.
Yes. Rise in December Inventories would reflect on 4th quarter GDP NOT 1st Quarter GDP
Yes 4th Q may go up a bit
I did not see sales revisions will take a look.
I do have charts and they are not pretty
Time to start bashing the Atlanta Fed Mish? Seems they are back in on the conspiracy again.
“I expected a dip to -0.3% because inventories and sales were both down.”
See my post last thread. January inventories actually revised higher.
Sorry, Jerry that was meant for stand alone to Mish
No conspiracies are involved. NY Fed economics are stronger than Atlanta Fed economics. The Atlanta Fed was just served. Will they hold a math-off and show who has the coolest econometrics? Will they start snubbing each other at Fed family picnics? Or will one go all Tupak on the other? As ZH might say, hilarity to follow.
And these monkeys are setting interest rate policy?
And these monkeys are setting interest rate policy?
No, they’re just throwing poo at each other.
Looks like the always amiable guys from Zerohedge beat you to it…http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-13/atlanta-fed-stuns-gdp-watchers-revises-gdp-higher-despite-retail-sales-inventory-mis
Lies, damn lies and statistics.
Business Inventories Revised Lower!
http://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/#business_sales
Here is the reality – somehow in the past 50 years we have never had a “reported” recession in a Democrat’s Presidency. ONLY after they leave office and a Republican comes in, or a Republican is up for re-election, or leaving office.
Meanwhile, clear economic numbers that I look at show that we should have been recessionary in both 1996 and 2012 – based on huge drops in petroleum distillates for one – and yet, both times we had “no” recession as Clinton and Obama were re-elected.
Interesting coincidences.
NY Fed moar better! Time to party like it’s 1999
Looks like bankers are starting to nip at the heels of other bankers in other regions. I imagine the NY Fed is a tad pissed the Atlanta numbers were not fudged higher. I imagine the Atlanta Fed will not post numbers again until after the election. Many speculate the Fed and presidential meeting were about numbers, keeping the illusion going until after the election.
The numbers will get real interesting if a Republican is elected. But for now TPTB are doing their damdest to keep the bad stats under wrap until Obama leaves office as this time they will not be able to glaze over the numbers after the election. This was what most of the meeting was about most likely.
Do you believe in magic? And I don’t mean the Lovin Spoonful crooning to Yellin in a fit of psychedelic hots like it’s 1969.
One of my all-time favorite songs
top 50 perhaps
Certainly top 100