The Republican nomination is going to be close. Nate Silver has Trump coming up short. I have Trump winning by a slim margin.
I am looking at some states where I likely underestimated Trump’s delegate count more than enough to matter.
Connecticut
A new Connecticut Poll came out on April 10-11.
That’s just one poll, but it’s significant. Moreover, if Trump wins big in New York on Tuesday, April 19, momentum will likely carry over for the Connecticut primary a week later.
According to Green Papers, Connecticut awards 13 at-large delegates in a winner-take most fashion. If someone gets over 50% they win them all.
There are 5 congressional districts with 3 delegates each going to the district winner. These all appear to be in Trump’s camp.
I only gave Trump 19 delegates out of 28, following Silver’s expert panel, simply because there were no polls.
I now estimate Trump will sweep all 28. That is a pickup of 9.
Rhode Island
I looked for a similar setup in Rhode Island but RI Rules pretty much assure any candidate that gets over 10% will split the proceeds.
Rhode Island went way out of it’s way to make the state totally irrelevant in all but the most extreme cases.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has 71 delegates but only 17 of them are bound. That leaves a whopping 54 unbound.
Nate Silver explains things this way …
The stakes in Pennsylvania are higher than the 17 bound delegates imply, however. Voters will also elect 54 unbound delegates — three from each congressional district — directly on the ballot. See here for a sample of what this looks like: Unlike in other states where delegates are directly elected, such as Illinois and West Virginia, there’s no guidance on the primary ballot as to which candidates those delegates might support.
However, slightly more than half of Pennsylvania’s unbound delegates said they’d support the candidate who wins the popular vote statewide or in their districts, according to a survey conducted by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. True, those delegates could change their mind later, with an April primary being a fairly distant memory in the event of a July contested convention. But particularly if Trump (or some other candidate) wins the state emphatically, he could get a couple of dozen unbound Pennsylvania delegates to go along for the ride. At the very least, it’s worth thinking about the bloc of Pennsylvania delegates separately from other categories of unbound delegates; they’ll potentially be more amenable to Trump and are an underrated means by which he might get to 1,237 delegates if he pulls up a bit short after California.
That does not change my state total assignment of 17. But it does highlight the overall pessimism in my award of a mere 15 out of 125 uncommitted delegates to Trump.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, especially by a large margin, he can easily pick up 27 uncommitteds in that state alone.
I was aware of this math before but purposely chose to maintain a cushion in my totals.
Updated Table
Here’s an update of my table as first posted in Princeton Professor Projects Trump has 70% Chance of Winning Primary; Nate Silver on Trump’s Dwindling Chances; Silver vs. Mish.
California
Let’s assume Trump will do worse than my initial projection of 118.
I mentally took 9 delegates off making the California margin 109 for Trump and 63 for Cruz.
Now let’s review the California math according to Green Papers.
159 district delegates are to be bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 53 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district’s National Convention delegates.
13 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 0 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) are to be bound to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide.
To get to 109, Trump needs to pickup 13 at the state level plus win 32 of 53 California congressional districts at three delegates each.
Why not?
Those polls are not recent and my projections will change with the polls.
Trump’s Odds Way Better than Silver Believes
Awarding Trump 9 more in Connecticut but subtracting nine from California leaves everything the same. To get Trump over the top by 2, I still give Trump 15 of 125 uncommitted delegates.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania by a large margin, he may have as many as 37 uncommitted delegates in his pocket (27 in Pennsylvania plus another 10).
Things are looking far better for Trump than those writing him off would have you believe …. provided Trump can win Indiana.
More on Indiana coming up.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
While at the gym I happened to see this Silver guy on MSNBC discussing his GOP predictions. He seemed very reluctant to show all his cards and give straightforward answers. Toward the end after being pressed for an answer he said that he does not believe Trump will have enough delegates at the end of the California primary to outright win the nomination.
Anyone who claims to be an expert at forecasting political nominations or elections should get one shot at it from the beginning and then forced to stick to it. Any Tom, Dick or Harry could be an expert if allowed to ‘adjust’ their predictions subsequent to each successive primary.
I could be a ESPN wonder if allowed to alter my MLB game winner predictions after each inning played.
How many ‘experts’ claimed that Iowa would be Trump’s last primary? Many pundits predicted that he wouldn’t even make it that far! Where are they today?
Assuming the RNC steals Trump’s nomination if he has a 2M vote or >300 delegate lead over Cruz in June, assuming Trump falls 150 delegates short of the 1237 – the GOP will not only lose the White House – but many incumbent seats in Congress. The fallout would cause widespread damage to the party.
“Anyone who claims to be an expert at forecasting political nominations or elections should get one shot at it from the beginning and then forced to stick to it. Any Tom, Dick or Harry could be an expert if allowed to ‘adjust’ their predictions subsequent to each successive primary.”
These are live forecasts that change with new input. Silver isn’t predicting or betting, he’s applying a model that says the odds of someone winning are X given the information his model has. As that information changes, the odds change.
Would you trust a weatherman who predicted rain 10 days out but never adjusted his forecast as inputs changed and his model was now forecasting sunny skies?
“I could be a ESPN wonder if allowed to alter my MLB game winner predictions after each inning played.”
ESPN, among others, actually do project winners and losers during on-going events. If it’s the bottom of the 9th and the away team is winning 10-0, there’s a 99% chance the home team will lose. If the score is 10-10, there’s a 54% chance they will win (I made both of those numbers up). Not really that complicated.
“How many ‘experts’ claimed that Iowa would be Trump’s last primary? Many pundits predicted that he wouldn’t even make it that far! Where are they today?”
Not Nate Silver. What’s your point?
“Assuming the RNC steals Trump’s nomination if he has a 2M vote or >300 delegate lead over Cruz in June, assuming Trump falls 150 delegates short of the 1237 – the GOP will not only lose the White House – but many incumbent seats in Congress. The fallout would cause widespread damage to the party.”
The GOP will probably lose the White House and many incumbent seats regardless of whether it’s Cruz or Trump (and ignoring the small possibility of a Kasich nomination). They will probably retain a majority outside of the White House, albeit a slimmer one.
I don’t really care what Nate Silver predicts in the top of the seventh or the bottom of the ninth. My barber could do that and probably with greater accuracy. So what good is he?
That’s my point.
Predicting this is like predicting the winner of a ball game in the 5th inning!
Silver has really lost it over Trump. Even far away in London I know Indiana has no demographic similarity to Wisconsin. WI is Yankee state that is now dominated by Germans, IN is a split Midlands and Upper South state. The Upper South (Scots-Irish) love Trump.
Anyway if Trump gets mid 50s above in NY with above 85 delegates and then he will take that momentum into the rest of NE. Voters will read the tea leaves and begin to coalesce around Trump. Even at the moment Trump leads by 7-8 in CA so will likely win almost all the delegates there (SoCal and the Central Valley vote the same way as Arizona). Those numbers are too low for Washington and Oregon too, especially Washington which is winner take most at Congressional District level and has a 20% cut off).
I mentioned, “we’re only in the fifth or sixth inning of the ‘ballgame’.
How many ‘Black Swans’ are up there that will sway things decidedly, one way or the other…?
Our economy may have imploded or war could have escalated exponentially by then, just to point out a couple.
Globalists? Conspiracy? A 2008 Debacle such as used by Obama to grasp the election?
Surely you Jest.
Cali may go Trump bigger than that.
Look at his support in West Hollywood.
Bret Easton Ellis – (Tweet)
“Just back from a dinner in West Hollywood: shocked the majority of the table was voting for Trump but they would never admit it publicly.
11:00 PM – 20 Feb 2016”
Reference: https://mobile.twitter.com/BretEastonEllis/status/701300328675700736
This whole process has me more jaded than normal on politics. We are seeing how rigged the system is against a candidate out of favor. What do you think it is like in congress when you want to make changes. That is why presidents are leaning more and more on executive orders since they can get nothing accomplished otherwise.
Mish
WOuld love to have you write an article on Trump’s Op-Ed column today in the WSJ.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/let-me-ask-america-a-question-1460675882
“Let Me Ask America a Question
How has the ‘system’ been working out for you and your family? No wonder voters demand change.”
I read it and thought it was fantastic and hard hitting. But sure would love to see you dedicate a post to it and hear others’ opinions as well.
Slasher
I read that and I agree
Not much more to say other than it was well written and thought out
Mish
always an asshole! Search Results
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