Earlier today I posted Indiana Awards 57 Delegates Before Primary Vote, Only 1 to Trump; Satan vs. Trump.
MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow stated her belief “Trump will lose, at least, in the only way that really counts. And the reason I can tell you that is 57 actual human-flesh delegates …..” have been assigned to someone other than Trump.
I am pleased that Maddow is stepping up support for Trump (albeit in a roundabout way). Her real concern obviously is that the election process is rigged.
Rigged or not, I think Trump will win Indiana, then the nomination.
No Polls
There are no polls in Indiana. We are all guessing. A blog by “Gibbon” appropriately entitled The Battle of Waterloo, Indiana explains why.
“Due to a law circumscribing the use of automated phone solicitation, opinion polling in the state is both more difficult, and expensive, than it is in most other parts of the country.”
Indiana Like Wisconsin?
Nate Silver changed his tune on Indiana on the belief that Indiana is more like Wisconsin than Illinois.
So here’s the question of the day: Is Indiana more like New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, or Wisconsin?
That is actually a trick question. I believe, as I have all along, that Indiana is more like Indiana than any of the above states.
When I look at Indiana, I see steel mills and manufacturing that have left the state.
It does not matter why. Rather, what matters is who people blame. And they blame China and Mexico.
I strongly disagree with Trump’s approach on tariffs, but my vote is outweighed by those looking for a scapegoat.
Borders
A quick check of the map shows Indiana shares borders with Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois.
Indiana does not border Wisconsin and in fact has little in common with Wisconsin.
It is likely that Kasich supporters take votes away from Cruz in areas bordering Ohio. Cruz is likely to take votes away from Kasich in the bible belt.
I expect Trump to romp and stomp in areas hard hit by manufacturing losses and come out ahead in most of the rest of the state.
Kasich in this race, if he stays in, will tip Indiana to Trump.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
And then what? Trade wars? Global depression? Constitutional crises as some obey blatantly illegal Trump orders and some refuse? What is the play if Trump is president, short everything?
Please explain how a trade war will end badly for America given our long running negative trade balance. Is ZERO still better than a negative half a trillion or so, or is my math broken?. And given our foreign trade partners are obviously desperate to export, fighting for the most devalued currency status, are they really going to fight this? Everyone knows the deal and they also know that with the dollar losing dominance, America will not be allowed to “print” unlimited amounts of money to cover the trade deficit. Desperately clinging to a sinking ship is not the answer. Narrowing our trade deficit WILL BE PAINFUL but it will be far worse of we don’t. Kicking the can is NOT a sustainable option.
Shamrock is far to optimistic don’t you think?
Snark!
“too”
I only take fitness advice from fit people… I only take guitar playing advice from guitar players… I only take cooking advice from people that can cook… The one thing that I think we can trust Trump on is his business expertise in getting us better trade deals…
Yes but not every fit person, guitar player, cook or deal maker is honest and trustworthy. Trump made many good deals but not all of them benefitted our country. His donating money to corrupted democrats didn’t help us, did it? What makes you so strongly believe in Trump’s hope and change “make America great again”? . There were many students believed that Trump University will be “great” investment. They were promised the best teachers, the best education and everything the best. Unfortunately they didn’t get anything close to what they were promised and even on graduation day they had to take photo with a poster of Trump instead of Trump himself because he didn’t even bother coming to graduation. Now there is a class law suit against him for that.
“…Lack of “Authenticity” Dogging Ted Cruz…”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/04/17/cbs-battleground-polls-donald-trump-extends-leads-lack-of-authenticity-dogging-ted-cruz/
I like the doom and gloom which encompasses the ‘what if’ Trump (or any candidate) gets elected…as if it really matters. The course of the country is dictated by more than one man (or half-man, in the case of Hillary). Most of what a president candidate says they will do, they know they can no, nor do they really care to try. Anyways, “trade wars, global depression, Constitutional crisis”…all are coming our way, regardless of who’s backside is in the Oval Office…the real question is, are you, the American People, ready to do what needs to be done when it all happens? I say no…they will roll over and beg for masters to rule them. Most of the American people want to be slaves, and they are willing to force those who do not want to be, to become slaves too, just for their own “comfort”.
trump…blah blah blah so what, he will still lose in November. The smoke blowing carnival barker with the clown hairdo has even bigger negatives than Hillary.
To make changes your have to WIN, but you supposedly “smart” folks keep backing losers like ross perot, the worthless Paul’s and now the latest d-bag tRump. and then complain about how things never change. Stop falling for the smoke and mirrors dog and pony show put on by these fringe candidates and find someone who can really make a difference. Oh, wait that would mean you lofos will have to use your heads for something other than a rack for your tin foil hats
Your normalcy bias tells you to keep doing the same thing and everything will be fine.
Look around a bit and you will discover things are NOT fine….far from it. Put that lying sack of dung back in the ring. She’ll make sure the bribes are paid and the bodies well buried. Delusion is your only hope.
2016 is not your “normal” leap year.
How incredibly emotional…
J – was Ross Perot wrong? It seems to me there actually was a giant sucking sound of jobs going south and east and west.
You put the cackling witch in, and she’ll stir up a cauldron full of lies and war. Toxic poison. Can you just imagine her and Bl*wjob Bill in the White House again? America might as well just roll over.
Cruz and Kasich represent more of the establishment that everybody is currently choking on. Trump might be loud, but he’s not a slick, smooth psychopath who kowtows to lobbyists and corporate interests, but someone who I believe actually loves his country. The rest are in it for themselves.
Here, get educated: “Which Presidential Candidate Am I?”
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/03/25/81057/
I don’t know why Colorado Republican voters are so angry just because their primary got canceled. At least they have legalized marijuana. The GOP gave ’em enough of a bonus with that. So, ” Let them smoke pot ! ” (and eat cake when they get the munchies) I am glad that the “transparency” of rigged primary elections is there for all to see. How desperate must a Government be to blatantly show the public their disregard for public will. This has long since been a country “for the people, by the people” Just can’t wait to see the next Feudalist foot drop. My prediction, Trump will fall short of the 1237 delegates thereby losing the first round, and second round will go to Cruz or possibly Bush. This will cement a win for Hillary (which I believe the GOP prefers to Trump)
I personally know of no one who thinks Hillary is “better” than anyone…including the devil. The RNC is scared of Trump as he will alter their power structure and possibly be left in the cold. They fear the “you’re fired!” Result of a Trump president. They hate Cruz as well and will find a way to torpedo him at the convention. Both are a threat to the Republican establishment. The proof is in the admission of many of them that they will vote for Hillary when there has been nothing proposed by Cruz or Trump that lies substantially outside of conservative principles. Even Trump’s comments on NATO with regard to financial and military contributions is not and issue for most conservatives. Regardless of the labeling “neocon”, most CONservatives are not war mongers and interventionists, we simply want a strong defense. The RNC hate for Trump is not rational, it’s strategic in their ability to hold onto power.
I used to live in Indiana. People there are so stupid they didn’t have daylight savings time because they are too stupid to figure out how to adjust their clocks. Prime Trump area.
“People there are so stupid they didn’t have daylight savings time because they are too stupid to figure out how to adjust their clocks.”
Indiana is in the far western part of eastern time zone so it has DST almost year-round. Furthermore, DST does NOT give you more daylight; it gives you more in the evening and less in the morning. It’s not a good idea for students to be going to school on a dark morning with rush hour traffic.
I liked DST when I lived in the east but it has no place here in Phoenix during the summer where it’s 110 in the shade – if you can find a cactus big enough to provide shade. If I want to enjoy daylight in the Phoenix summer, I get up early in the morning which is about the only time it’s bearable in July.
Rufus – most people are stupid, but they are starting to get educated. Look who they’ve elected for the last 30 years: Reagan, Bush Sr., Clinton, Bush Jr., Obama. All were utter failures for the average American, but of course the elite made out like bandits.
We should at least thank Trump and Sanders for pulling the curtain back, for shouting out loud that the game is rigged. At least now the American people realize that although they get to vote for candidates, they DO NOT get to choose who those candidates are. That is a huge revelation and will in time destroy both parties, as it should.
“We should at least thank Trump and Sanders for pulling the curtain back, for shouting out loud that the game is rigged.”
Trump is pulling back the curtain and shouting but if you get past the shouting you will see that it is actually rigged for the front runner Trump. He has received about 37% of the vote but received about 45% of the delegates. Cruz is the one who should actually be shouting but instead he actually believes in the Constitution and that states can set it up as they wish. We don’t have a democracy. We have a republic. Our inalienable rights are not up for election by a majority of voters. Cruz actually learns the rules and works to earn the delegate votes instead of whining.
If you listen to Trump and his shouting, here is his philosophy: TRUMP, TRUMP, TRUMP. If if benefits Trump, it is good. If it doesn’t, it is bad. You don’t hear him whining about how he got one-third of the Florida vote and took all the delegates. Of course not. It benefited TRUMP so Florida is “…a great state. They love me in Florida”.
It is time to muffle the shouting and actually listen to what is being said. When we listen it is clear.
Rick – it was only when the establishment began to realize that Trump had a shot that they began to crucify him and align themselves with Cruz. The establishment can’t stand Cruz, but he will allow Hillary the win, and they’d rather have her than Trump.
The media has been all over Trump with a constant, non-stop barrage of insults, yet very little is said about Hillary or Cruz. It’s been eye-opening to the American public, and they have taken notice.
There is only one political party, the establishment party, and it is going down.
Rachel Maddow is likely stupid enough to vote for Hillary; But i will say-America voted its first black/Muslim for a President-and they will vote for a Socialist President rather than put a Bible thumping country preacher into office
I’ve noticed a pattern. When the stock market goes down, Trump does better in primaries, but Hillary does worse. When the stock market goes up, Trump does worse, but Hillary does better. My signal processing software indicates the markets are starting to head down again. This time it will be well through the election. Trump should gain momentum while Hillary loses steam. It’s going to be a nail-biter all the way, regardless of party.
I concur with your opinion that the stock market will drop and soon. Presidential Election years seem to follow a pattern where they start off the year badly bottoming sometime in February- check, Rebound & hit previous highs sometime in mid-April- check, generally tank (5-10% correction) through the end of June- happening now But where I diverge from your opinion is if this year follows the typical Presidential election year, usually the market rallies clear through the end of the year. However, this year is shaping up to be like 2008, where the Dow lost 38.5%, but, unlike your observation of Hillary doing worse when the market is down, Obama thrived during a down year. It may be the incumbents’ party does bad when the market tanks during a Presidential election cycle which would decidedly give Trump the edge (If he can win the nomination with a rigged system) Grab a bag of popcorn and enjoy the fireworks!
If Trump crosses that 1237 delegate count, one or two states will simply unbind their delegates for the first round. There is no way the Republican insiders will let Trump get the nomination in my opinion.
That is entirely possible
Mish
and that would the end of the GOP as we know it.
it’s suicide. Trump would run as 3rd party and STILL have the best chance of winning.
GOPe is a beggar in every scenario. Can’t win w/ Cruz, and the Dems still claim their preferred candidate, Hillary. They’re finished.
“Indiana Awards 57 Delegates Before Primary Vote, Only 1 to Trump”
WTH?! I woke up this morning to read this and was hoping that was a late April Fool’s joke. THIS is the reason that so many S. Indiana voters remove incumbents every time we can.
Sore losers and cheaters rank extremely low on my personal list, and these delegates are pissing me off with this tactic. I foresee a big loss of popularity of the left head of the political snake.
For the record, there are stupid people everywhere. Indiana is no different than any other state with large cities, small rural communities and everything between. Lumping all citizens of any one state as stupid is insulting and reflects poorly on the personal character of the person stating such posts, Rufus. As for the time change issue, I don’t know a single person who likes it. Fighting the political machine to eradicate has been, and still is, a nightmare. For some reason, they still want to be on the same time zone as Chicago, despite the fact that it’s a dying city, corporation-wise.
I always thought Indiana was like Illinois minus Chicago.
Trump won Illinois but, more importantly, the recent voter disenfranchisements are going to make more people turn to Trump.
One problem for Trump lately, however, is his recently announced stand on NATO (cutbacks). While I believe it’s time to cut it back or, preferably, eliminate it, Republicans in the south and west may not see I that way and it involves a lot of jobs, besides. Many of them fail to see that foreign interventionism means more globalism and immigration. Trump has not done well since announcing his foreign policy advisory team and proposing NATO cutbacks.
Trust me, wootendw, we’d love to give Gary, IN to Chicago.
I don’t blame you but Gary is barely over 1% of Indiana whereas Chicago is 20% of Illinois.