Fox News and Public Opinion Strategies have both published Indiana Polls.

Trump is ahead in Indiana by 8 points and 6 points respectively.

Indiana Polls

Nate Silver’s Poll’s Only Forecast

Indiana Polls Only

Nate Silver’s Secret Sauce Forecast

Indiana Silver Projection

Somehow an 82% probability morphs into 51% when Nate Silver’s Secret Sauce is applied.

While 82% is likely on the high side, 51% seems way low. If Kasich dropped out and supported Cruz, they would have a much higher chance of stopping him.

Trump will win the nomination if he wins Indiana. Trump has New York momentum going for him and this Tuesday, April 26, Trump will sweep or nearly sweep five more states: Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware.

Indiana is the GOP’s last stand barring a rules change at the convention.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock