Fox News and Public Opinion Strategies have both published Indiana Polls.
Trump is ahead in Indiana by 8 points and 6 points respectively.
Nate Silver’s Poll’s Only Forecast
Nate Silver’s Secret Sauce Forecast
Somehow an 82% probability morphs into 51% when Nate Silver’s Secret Sauce is applied.
While 82% is likely on the high side, 51% seems way low. If Kasich dropped out and supported Cruz, they would have a much higher chance of stopping him.
Trump will win the nomination if he wins Indiana. Trump has New York momentum going for him and this Tuesday, April 26, Trump will sweep or nearly sweep five more states: Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware.
Indiana is the GOP’s last stand barring a rules change at the convention.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
If Trump takes Indiana, it’s all over, unless the elites do something psychotic in the way of false flags, martial law, or even a total suspension of the elections. It will be an interesting summer.
Summer of Trump?
I’m starting to see signs of a summer against Cruz and the establishment. It’s spread to Europe and working in our favor, thanks to Obama’s Apology Tour. just think… these are the people that “GAVE” him a Nobel Peace Prize,
A different take by Michael Harrington. Don’t know anything about this guy or his methods. He seems to have Trump winning the popular vote in IN and PA as well as all the states voting Tuesday, but still not getting to the 1237 majority needed on a first ballot. He assigned Cruz the 54 unbound delegates from PA which is nonsense but your analysis did not count these for Trump anyway. I’m sure you can spot other fallacies.
Steve in Greensboro said:
RedState (or as we call it in my house PinkState) is all in for #NeverTrump. Would not trust their analysis, ever.
I think the majority of the elites have already capitulated. More and more are courting Trump. They’ve read the writing on the wall and have conceded that Trump will be the GOP nominee.
Trump-Clinton will be one of the most, if not the most, entertaining POTUS election matchups in my lifetime. Record breaking ratings.
There’s a ton of dirt on Hillary. Trump will have a field day.
David Sisler (@davesizzle) said:
Cleveland vs Blaine all over again
The Gary, Indiana Republican turnout may tell something about Democrat crossover for Trump. Democrats may vote for Trump in the Indiana Republican primary.
Thursday morning I caught a snippet on Fox news (at the dentist office wait room) regarding Trump’s “presidential demeanor” change. They kept pressing the “more presidential” and not so spontaneous, etc., attributing this to the new campaign help, and that he was using teleprompters now. Then all the alley cats came out from the garbage cans complaining and point fingers because he isn’t acting the same as before, saying he’s just another shill that’s going to change his tune and tow the party line.
To all this I say that I’m pretty sure he is behaving a bit better because his campaign got serious over the last few months, and if he’s going to win over those fence sitters, he’s got to present himself a little more seriously. I find it comforting to see this side expressed as it reveals the calculating businessman that put him where he is today. If he were flip-flopping on issues, then I’d be skeptical.
Popular vote will be Trump, despite the delegation’s earlier discussions & activity contrary. I almost foresee some specific cars on fire if the elected delegation goes against the people of Indiana; Hoosiers don’t take kindly to elected officials behaving badly.
Actually, he has changed his tax stance. He came out on the Today show for raising taxes on the wealthy. His criticism of Gov Scott Walker for not raising taxes to close a supposedly budget deficit in Wisconsin probably contributed to his loss in that state.
I have said all along Trump will trounce Clinton in a landslide not seen since Reagan vs. Carter. People are fed up and want change. Clinton represents the status quo. The young democratic vote supporting Sanders will stay home while blue collar democrats will support Trump.
Carl R said:
and I expect the reverse. I think Bernie supporters will back Clinton, and hope to move the party left in time, whereas mainstream and libertarian Republicans will not support Trump. I expect a banner year for the Libertarian party, and massive Republican losses up and down the ticket, including the loss of both houses of Congress, and many statehouses.
Time will tell which of us is right.