Shortly after polls closed in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Delaware, Donald Trump was projected the winner in all five states.
Anyone with half a clue expected a Trump sweep. However, the margin may have shocked some of Nate Silver’s experts.
Even the evangelicals voted for Trump.
Consider this tidbit from Nate Silver’s Live Blog.
Trump is killing it with evangelicals. Granted, it’s not as big a group in the Northeast as it is in the South, but Cruz is losing this group to Trump by about 25 percentage points in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Connecticut, which has to smart, given that evangelicals were once seen as the Texas senator’s core constituency.
Mish vs. Silver Projection Update
Numbers in purple from tonight not confirmed, but highly likely.
Trump picked up four more delegates in New York than I projected. Trump is set to sweep all the delegates in Connecticut which was my revised prediction.
Trump’s margins tonight are impressive.
Moreover I just heard on MSNBC that #NeverTrump delegates are getting clobbered in Pennsylvania. The score so far is a mere 5 of 32 #NeverTrump delegates won in Pennsylvania.
Those are uncommitted delegates likely to vote for Trump.
In Rhode Island, it takes 66.67% of the vote for a sweep. Trump is winning some districts by nearly that margin.
Pencil in about 13 Rhode Island delegates if the current percentages hold.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
hate trumps faith
Hate Nate Silver More!
Snark!
Love Mish!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
so what? he will still lose by a wide margin in the fall
Is “so what?” a declaration or a question? Idiot.
Based on what? A wide margin? Trump could trash Hillary like he did Jeb. How many body blows can she take before she explodes – she has a very short fuse and is a bad campaigner. Hillary was an evil SS and this will come back to haunt her. Also she is the poster girl for corruption – Trump’s campaign theme which resonates with voters. What is the big unknown is how many of the independent voters will vote for Trump. Remember it is the economy and this is not Hillary’s strong hand.
I think Trump will just annihilate Hillary’s reputation. She can barely beat a socialist…and Trumpnis essentially the more fun version of Ronald Reagan. If she wins, she will be missing 2 legs and an arm. Even I know about 20 infractions that make Hillary intolerable as POTUS. Plus, Trump doesn’t have her record to.defend. He just needs to make up for his motormouth insults. Hillary has to engage and discuss her experience which has a body count as high as the Trump Tower. And her “experience” as a Senator was dismal. New Yorkers liked her name cache.like.shallow NYers would. She was near useless in all her positions if not.flat out WRONG. I feel bad for Bernie…
“What is the big unknown is how many of the independent voters will vote for Trump.”
I read an analysis of the typical indie voter not long ago and can tell you that they are not nearly as likely to vote for Felonious as for Trump.
“I think Trump will just annihilate Hillary’s reputation.”
Correct. SHE has a track record in government that’s very easily attacked (voted for Iraq war, voted for the PATRIOT Act and the re-authorization of it, voted for the Wall Street bailout, her speaker fees, her highly classified email mishandling stupidity for which anyone else would have been in an orange jumpsuit long ago, etc., etc.) HE doesn’t, so he unlike her can’t be attacked for poor performance in government. He’d annihilate her in debates.
I think Trump will win in a landslide. And I’m a Democrat…
Vegas,
Il Ducé will sweep the Nov. election : March on Rome captures the mood. Listen closely to his speeches; it’s not a campaign its a movement.
Il Ducés appeal is twofold
1) eliminate corruption
2) efficient and cheap government
it was obvious way back in August to anyone outside the Beltway.
I’ve always thought “every” political office holder should have a degree in business administration or decades of small-business operations.
Maybe forbid “lawyers” and criminals from holding office – but wait, I repeat myself…..
If Kasich can win Ohio, he can beat Hillary? Really??? Don’t believe Goldman Sachs’ propaganda! Is Cruz Canadian? Does the bear sh!t in the woods?
Hillary – Goldman Sachs owned.
Cruz – the Canadian Goldman Sachs water boy.
Kasich – Goldman Sachs vote fetcher.
Goldman Sachs, the tier 1 bankers and the military industrial complex can’t shake Trump and he threatens their plans for their “tax cattle”. All those years of NAFTA treaties, and foreign conquering is going right down the tubes because of a New York real estate developer. Even the EU fears him. I’ll just sit and wait for the Donald to go burn down their barn. Party at my house. you bring the beer and I’l make the popcorn.
Trump – Goldman Sachs client (I guess that means he is going to get screwed.)
Didn’t they create the Great Recession of 2008?
please describe how///looks like he has 1237 or more already
“so what? he will still lose by a wide margin in the fall”
So what, Trump will be done by September 2015, by December, 2015, by the time the primaries begin, etc. That mantra hasn’t worked out so far.
But, more Republicans voted against Cruz. There is more support for Trump among the Republicans than for Cruz, and since Democrats won’t vote for ANY Republican,( Man, Female, White OR Black), it makes no difference what “Democrats” have to say.
More Republican voters will go the polls than ever. He has energized MORE voters than anyone in a long time. More will show up to vote for him than will/would vote for Cruz. Therefore, the best chance the Republicans have is Trump since more voters will show up.
IF there is a chance Trump will lose to the Democrat candidate, then ANY OTHER Republican will do worse as these primary elections demonstrate.
If the Republican candidate does not win in the General Elections, it is not because of Trump. It is because the last 50 years of 2nd and 3rd World Immigration has produced millions of Pro-Big Gov, Pro-Redistribution of stolen wages from the workers, and Pro-Socialist Cultural genetics of the immigrants. This is why the Democrats are for open borders, especially, and only to the South, not to Canada, South African Whites of Eastern Europeans (who are also White)
America has gone from a 95% 1st World demographics to 69%. The Republicans will be out-voted no matter what. But, don’t worry, this is our last election.
Predictable. Momentum is a real phenomenon in politics. Cruz support is waning. He is now viewed as the sour grapes spoiler he is, so his support wanes, so he is viewed as the sour grapes…
So much for those prophecies.
The one great joy of this election season is watching both parties implode as the masses come to realize that they have no voice. Regardless of the candidate elected, the American public wins.
Will either party purge & re-build after this watershed election? Based on the results of this election season, one would conclude that BOTH parties must conduct a serious house-cleaning if not a total teardown & re-build.
My prediction? Neither party will purge nor admit to a need to change/evolve. Both parties will remain under current (failed) leadership. Both parties will pretend that 2016 never happened.
Follow-up prediction? 3rd & 4th parties will arise (before the next election cycle) to meet the demands of both the populist Left & Right. Failure to reform themselves will put both the D & R parties into an existential crisis by 2024.
Their extinction is many decades overdue.
Rosie O’Donnell escape Plan***************************************************************************
Rosie & Lena moving to Canada…?
The reasons to vote for Trump just keep piling up…
Doubt Canada will have them.
I heard Teddy Boy came in 3rd in 4 of the 5 primary states. He’s a bigger loser than Kasich. Ted didn’t have much to say after getting his ass handed to him. Neither did Kasich for that matter. Now Trump leads Cruz by about 400 delegates. At the end of the California primary the spread will be 500 or more. How could anybody at this point claim that Cruz or Kasich are legitimate contenders with a straight face?
God bless President Trump … !!!!!!
Kasich is sitting there with a paltry 152 -WTF does he hope to do? Even if he combine with Cruz
I’m English, how I wish we had a ‘Trump’ card. Instead of ditherers.
You have Nigel Farage
People are just sick and tired of the same old pieces of political filth.
If you think the Republican establishment is upset with Trump, just watch how shrill the Democrats will get in the general election. It will be an interesting election.
Donald Trump, at his core, will bring out the worst in people. That is his nature because it makes him look better. Interesting election season indeed!
Trump is a media/comm. genius, and he will play those shills like a fiddle.
Even now many people still believe the “media” or “Dems” will be able to contend with Trump (on his turf!)… ain’t gonna happen. Trump has proven to be better at THEIR game than all of them.
It may bring out the worst in people, and it may be crude… but there is no denying that it WORKS. Despite ALL claims/predictions to the contrary, Trump’s candidacy/support just keeps getting stronger…
IMO, Trump will easily flip & steal several small but important constituencies from HRC/Dems… especially blue collar/trade/economics voters that may have flopped to the Dems after Bush, plus some anti-war voters & minority voters.
Trump has mobilized the DWTS/Survivor/realityStar TV zombie hordes out in the hinterland… many of these people have never voted, and the failed political establishment still is NOT accounting for their participation (100% Trump) in November. Hillary has no chance at all… she’s toast.
“Trump is a media/comm. genius, and he will play those shills like a fiddle.
Touche! You can say that again!
Trump is just letting the American Lie-Stream Media and our Corrupt Uniparty Political System buy all the rope and short stools they want from him………..
“When your enemy is defeating themselves….let them.”
Getting him through primaries was a lot of work but he’ll surely win the nomination.
But IMO Obama didn’t win his first election based on his charming personality. He won it because the mainstream media gave him what might have been tens or even hundreds of millions of free positive press, while doing everything they could to destroy his opposition. Talk about a truly massive weighting of campaign media.
What if they do that for Hillary? I tend to think that’s the plan.
Impossible.
Obama had no record to hide – a blank slate.
HRC has more skeletons than a graveyard & the highest negatives of any candidate. She is a mountain of failure & prevarication that cannot be papered-over by “positive press”.
Hillary will lose the GE by a wide margin – even Dems will not vote for her. Start planning for President Trump.
The Future of America’s Lie-Stream Media is D.O.A. this year – and now forever!
Cut the Media Off – and Start to Live Life!
If they don’t screw Trump over, I truly hope he chooses a very level headed guy for VP. I know many don’t like or want him in this position, but I still think Rand Paul would still make an excellent choice.
Whomever is chosen, better be one hell of a chess player, because we all know there is much in the way of death threats for high level officials, and having a carefully chosen VP would be absolutely vital for this particular election. I think extending VP to other vying candidate (Kasich/Cruz) would be a super mistake too.
Terry of England: I personally think Nigel Farage is probably one of the few reasons I catch political news across the pond, so to speak. Expressing your mind and keeping it civil seems to be his specialty as I’ve seen it. The world needs many more politicians like him.
What a disaster if we elect a president who doesn’t understand the risks associated with global warming.
Doufas, you forgot the /sarc tag…
Mish,
Looks like you have found the evangelical nutcases.
Thanks,
Rick Sandberg Fresno
Explain.
The next couple of weeks will tell the story, but the fact that we are at this point says a lot about the United States and the American people. That half the population are voting for an avowed socialist or a socialist in liberal clothing is sad. That one third of the remainder are actively supporting a populist candidate with little understanding of the issues at stake never mind the concepts of limited government, free markets and individual freedom upon which this country was founded, is disheartening.
The United States is not a democracy and never has been. We are a republic with a separation of powers and limited government that are unique in the history of government. It was that limited government and the companion individual liberties upon which the government is not to tread that created more prosperity for more people around the world than any government, state or entity in all of human history. Today all of that is in peril as almost 2/3 of the population are seemingly prepared to travel down a path of dismantling the limitations on government our Founding Fathers put in place.
After eight years under a president who decried the Constitution as a “Charter of negative liberties” the next president will have a choice. Either bring the progressive attack on the Constitution and freedom to a halt or pick up where Obama leaves off and continue down that path. Unfortunately, three of the four remaining candidates – John Kasich doesn’t count as a real candidate – are more than happy to jettison the Constitution and pander to the masses. Whether it’s Germany or Argentina or Venezuela, such populist movements rarely turn out well.
Populist movements share one underlying characteristic… they seek to harness the anger of the mob. Once the shackles of constitutional limits are thrown off, there is little to restrain government or the people other than the character of the leaders, and often that’s simply not enough. As Maximilien Robespierre learned, the consequences of doing so can be, shall we say, unforeseen… and unfortunate.
H/T http://www.redstate.com/diary/imperfectamerica/2016/04/27/republic-can-keep-it.-donald-trump-tyranny-mob…/
We probably will not get the President we need, but we will surely get the President we deserve.
I share your general suspicion of populists, but when did we ever elect a populist who was also a successful entrepreneur? I am hoping that The Donald’s business experience tempers his populism in a way that gives us a more entertaining and effective Rand Paul. It may be a long shot, but we know what we’ll get from Clinton and it ain’t good.
Politico has an article interviewing the 5 people who have written books about Trump.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/donald-trump-2016-campaign-biography-psychology-history-barrett-hurt-dantiono-blair-obrien-213835
Amazingly well said.