In today’s FOMC statement, the Fed made some useless noise about closely monitoring inflation.
The Fed also dropped concerns on global economic risks and gave no indication it might waver on last month’s projection it would hike twice this year.
The market expects no more than one hike, and not until November at the earliest.
Fed Tracker Changes
The Wall Street Journal’s Fed Statement Tracker highlights these changes.
Hooray – No Global Risks
There are a few more changes but the only significant change was the Fed dropped this statement: “However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks“.
Apparently, there are no global economic or financial risks.
CME Fedwatch June
CME Fedwatch November
The Fed still anticipates two hikes this year. The market says only one.
The first time the odds of a hike increase to over 50% is November, and even then just barely.
Those odds did shift today from 38.9% chance to a 53.5% chance.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock